Coronavirus no worse than the 1957 Flu
 

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

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My 2 cents I believe in 1957 people were tougher, there was no instant communications, the media reported news not created hysteria. I also believe people weren’t traveling as much or affluent as they are today. It adds up to a number of factors.

China wasn’t a factor either which keeps seeding the US

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According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY

I've noticed what looks like a lot of homemade graphs and spreadsheets showing up in some member's posts, that anyone could pretty easily do on their own. It would be helpful in determining the veracity of their source, if a link or citation were included with these graphs and spreadsheets. Thank you.

Thank you for the link, it really helps.

I was in the UK. military in 1957, and half our battalion went down with the Asian Flu. No one died, but a lot were very ill. I had just a mild dose of it.
Don't think we were any tougher than those of today, but there definitely were not anywhere near as many obese people around which may have kept numbers down.
With no internet, news of the severity of it was not readily available, which led to less rumour and info overload.
We were not that long out of WW2, and the general attitude, was a bit of flu was nothing compared to what many had been through.
We just got on with it.

As the info I posted shows, the USA only had 172 million people in 1957, so deaths per million is a better way to compare,

The white info graphic was posted by Balloux. I am pretty sure that the guy who sequenced the coronavirus genome knows how to get accurate numbers.

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

1957 flu was a double peak pandemic that lasted about 8 months

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The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

Well said

It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

At the end is an interesting link that provides a detailed comparison between COVID and the Asian flu
A different viewpoint than the author of this thread with rationale

My Reason colleague Brian Doherty cites a brand new study that suggests that early adoption of stringent public health measures, e.g., closing down schools, theaters, churches, and so forth, in response to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic actually experienced a more robust economic bounce back than cities that reacted more slowly.

In the meantime, assuming that the epidemiological models are even approximately right, the chief reason why the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. may be held down to 1957 pandemic flu levels is because modern public health officials have recommended social distancing measures instead of just letting the current epidemic run its course.
Article below
How Will Coronavirus Pandemic Deaths Compare to the 1957 Flu Pandemic? – Reason.com

Population was lot lower then and China hasn’t taken over the world yet by stealing. Until China get rid of its wet markets and enter’s the 20 century with food handling more virus’s to come. Each time outbreak happens it seems to get more deadly.

Many people who hv had COVID19 but didn’t die, have had a plethora of ongoing lung, heart, memory, kinetic, etc issues after months of recovery from the virus. Personally, I am doing all I can to protect you and myself from getting it. “

I can never understand the fascination people have in trying to minimize this virus. You cannot really compare it to any other illness because it is a new virus and we don’t know everything about it. I was alive in 1957 and I think if 145,000 people had died in 4 1/2 months we would have heard something. This virus has cause damage in every organ in some people and unique issues in young children such as inflammation in their bodies. The highly contagious aspect of this virus from people with no symptoms is another unique factor.

Our population has grown 92% since then. Can you imagine how horrible life would be in this country if our population is 633 million in 2083, or 1,216,500,000 in 2146? The world's biggest problem is population growth, not a pandemic. Both the U.S. population and the world's population has continued to grow right through this pandemic.

. I agree this virus is a fear factor gone berserk.

Reasonable estimates are that likely 10 times as many people have been infected as the number officially confirmed.

I personally know of two people who have very likely had it, were never hospitalized, and not counted in the totals.

Oh. I respectfully and intensely disagree with this post.

One big difference - thanks to the foresight of Maurice Hilleman, when the 1957 flu arrived, a vaccine was ready - and even with a vaccine, 60,000 - 100,000 Americans died

Sorry but no, I won't stop :icon_wink:

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.

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Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

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This does not take into account the huge number of asymptomatics who had the virus, did not get sick or die.

The official CDC estimate for Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.

What's your point... or is this just FYI?

China flu and wet market
 

It seems to be the case that the wet market blame was a ruse by china to deceive. They were not practicing good lab protocols which may be worse than letting it out on purpose. It goes to show how you can bring a country or countries to its knees with the help of the media and non critical thinking of the people who watch the media. Numbers are fascinating. People do not understand how easily manipulated they are. Do not believe all you hear or see.

What to make of this? It might all be about power and money now, life was a lot different back then.

Here, here! Spot on.

I know of several people who never even took the test and were notified they were positive. They were in several different states. Most people at risk have co-morbidities which make this virus a real problem for them and they should take precautions all the time. The biggest problem with the covid-19 numbers is the money our government has allocated that encourages the cases and deaths to be "doctored" because of the "elective" surgery shutdown. There have been studies that indicate keeping healthy people locked up for long periods of time away from people their immune system to be compromised and can cause mental health issues. These people out of work are worried about feeding their families, yet hundreds of thousands are out there protesting, destroying small businesses and spreading the virus and killing even more people either with violence or covid-19.

I cannot understand the fascination people have in exploiting the virus as a death sentence. The next round of fear and anxiety will be centered around the vaccine.

They were definitely tougher!

And it is was done on purpose.

Unfortunately it’s been proven the numbers are untrustworthy. People who went to have tests but left before actually being tested are being notified the test they did not take came out positive. People dying in accidents such as motorcycle related have Covid as the cause of death on their death certificates. In fact, most anyone who is positive for Covid, but dies for any reason, are going down as Covid deaths. People Have tested positive and then continued to get tested every other day until their tests come back negative. If they had seven tests each of those tests have been counted as a new infection. That’s seven new infections counted for one person! Finally, people who have had the unreliable test done nasally and had that test come out positive have also had blood tests for Covid, which are much more reliable, and had those tests come back negative. Just because you may have inhaled the virus doesn’t necessarily mean you are infected.

All of these things mentioned above show that we cannot trust the numbers being published, and that it’s a given that both the infection rates and death rates have been artificially inflated and do not reflect reality.

I am no scientist but shutting down the entire economy, except of course paying all government employees, is a very big step which has caused much unknown misery but not for government employees who stayed home and got full pay!!!!!! Wake up America and demand our politicians have the same rules and benefits as all of us, social security and medicare - not special everything that protects them and costs you!

The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old[/QUOTE]

Covid isn't finished killing. Why don't you wait til it's finished before you make projections.

Scientists are suggesting that October and November may be the deadliest yet. If that's the case, we will reach close to 300,000 deaths in the U.S.