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Some thoughts on growth, development, and "Too big"
I saw the response below to a previous post of mine and I thought I would share my thoughts on growth. I have no obligation or loyalty to The Villages developer beyond the same responsibilities I have towards each and every resident and business in Sumter County, my thoughts and opinions below, come from looking at things from a business perspective and as a resident of the county and our community.
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First, the developer isn't short sighted, and they know where this community is going and where they will build many years in advance. They are very good businesspeople and know how to make a profitable business – this is not a sin or something evil, it is exactly how each of us were able to be here, we made a profit in what we were doing for a living and saved some of it for retirement. A business exists to make a profit by providing a commodity that someone else wants. Some of the keys to being profitable in business are knowing your customer, having a desirable product that people want, these they obviously mastered. Cost containment and pricing are also key factors to success. For this discussion, “knowing where your customers are” is the point to delve into. For Brownwood to be successful as a business location it must be surrounded by its customer base, just like Lake Sumter Landing and Spanish Springs. As we see it today with the building of Richmond, St. Johns, and beyond, that is certainly the case. Had this not been planned all along and they were truly going to stop at SR44, Brownwood would likely be located where the Turman and Roosevelt executive courses are today. Brownwood’s current location would have been a mistake when it was chosen over 25 years ago (watch the next 30 seconds of this video https://youtu.be/_GHKaJd-wKk?t=133 ) had they not been planning to move south of SR44. The problem was zoning, south of SR44 wasn’t zoned for this kind of development and until it was, Brownwood’s location was a huge gamble because it was out in the middle of nowhere Sumter County. Planning something like The Villages is multifaceted task that has to not only look at moving dirt, buying lumber and shingles, and building houses, it also requires looking at the economics of not only the end results but the process as it impact the local and regional economies, and understanding how to use that in the planning and long term goal process. Until many of the necessary things became solidified, “stopping at SR44” was a valid and true statement; they just weren’t showing their hold cards and what they were working on in the background. I’ll sidetrack for just a minute here to the topic of “stopping at CR466A” that I’ve heard many were told or promised. This was pure ignorance for anyone to say or believe, and for some it was just dishonesty to hype sales. Let me explain, CDD5 was established on 3/19/2002 as the first CDD south of CR466, then on 2/10/2004 CDD6 was established, by 9/28/2004 CDD9 and CDD10 were established. The first homes built south of CR466 didn’t happen until sometime in 2004. So, if you bought south of CR466 and were told they’re not building south of CR466A, there was either ignorance or willful misinformation by the person providing the information, at the plans for south of CR466A were already well in progress. Now back to SR44. As The Villages grew and progressed southward, it not only created new homes and communities that brought with it new commercial enterprises and a thriving economy, it also established and very strong construction industry that currently numbers in the 12-15,000 jobs for Sumter and surrounding counties. This growth created a growing and prosperous economy and tax base. A little long-term planning and thinking by civic leaders saw this growth as Lemmings running off a cliff (actually a myth created by Disney), with the cliff being SR44. If The Villages were to “stop building” at SR44, the economy of Sumter and neighboring counties and cities would feel a huge negative impact from the loss of thousands of construction jobs. The developer recognized this and planned accordingly and quietly for this. Along with the job losses would come plummeting property values, loss of may more jobs as the workers moved away and took with them their families. Family members that also held jobs in the area; medical workers, commercial establishments, restaurants, secondary construction, landscaping, and many more. If you think that it’s hard now to find people to work, imagine how much worse it would be if the 15,000 workers lost their jobs and moved away. Not all of course would move away, some would stay, but with few jobs, unemployment would go through the roof and as history has shown us, crime would also spike with the unemployment. Crime picks the easy targets, in the case of The Villages that would be senior citizens and lots of unoccupied homes (snowbirds). The economy, crime, and unemployment are three of the biggest issues civic leaders have to deal with, if they don’t deal with these first, there is no way do also deal with things like infrastructure, roads, schools, and the myriad of other issues on their plates. It is a difficult and delicate task for civic leaders to balance all the needs of the community, one cannot favor businesses over residents or residents over businesses, one cannot take an unwavering position on an issue such as growth without directly impacting, negatively or positively, other issues such as home values or employment. A great amount of flexibility is needed, and each individual issue must be evaluated on its merits and overall long- and short-term impact. In the case allowing The Villages to continue building south of 44, this was a decision that had to be made to preserve the economy of the entire area. We can now see in hindsight that the developer foresaw and planned ahead for this decision. Many have said that Harold Schwartz would not have done what is happening today, I say this is bunk. The timing of what is happening today goes back to the 90’s when Mr. Schwartz as alive and actively involved in the planning and future development of The Villages. What we see today is a part of and a continuation of his dream. I never met the man, but I have spoken to many who knew him personally and worked and did business with him, they all agree that his outward persona of being everyone’s friend was true and genuine, but when it came to business he was a shrewd and as hard charging any of today’s business giants, and that business always came first. Now our civic leaders, at all levels, are dealing with and addressing the domino issues of these decisions: schools, roads, businesses, and many more. They can’t over react or plan too far in the future as they have to live withing budgets that by their very nature, lag behind the growth, incurring debt to “get ahead” of an issue often turns to folly and a waste of money. The counties and cities around us are investing and planning for the growth, much of it is very well thought out. The perception of some is that nothing is happening, hardly the case, sometimes the perception of “too much traffic” is simply more that it used to be but sill less than the current design capacities. Many times there are additional issues that the average resident doesn’t know of or understand that cannot be ignored or dismissed before an issue, perceived or otherwise, is addressed; in the case of roadways right-of-way ownership and drainage are two areas that stumbling blocks that must always be addressed first as well as budget restraints. Concerning other infrastructure such as utilities, this is a joint effort between developers and municipalities. Wildwood is currently dealing with an aging wastewater processing system that is reaching capacity due to the city’s growth outside of The Villages component. New apartment complexes, home development, and business are stressing these resources and Wildwood’s leaders have recently taken positive and decisive steps to address these. Fortunately, Wildwood is spared much of the stress on these systems caused by the growth of The Villages as water related infrastructure is basically self-contained within the development. The building of the massive Gibson Wastewater Treatment facility at 501/470 to serve the areas south of Monarch Grove down to Middleton an beyond, being done by the developer without impact to Wildwood’s systems is an example of this. The cities of Coleman, Webster, Center Hill, and Bushnell are also addressing issues of continued growth, working with each other and the county to address current and plan for future needs. Growth is inevitable, how we deal with it is important. I believe that our local governments are now in responsible and forward-thinking hands, looking out for the overall good of the community and not that of a few individuals or entities. Many local activists and those on social media would want you to think otherwise, a very myopic and self-indulgent opinion, and not based on any facts. To the many who believe things have gotten too big I ask you, did it get too big the day before or the day after you arrived? If it is too big for you, the roads go in both directions, but remember, if you leave, wherever you go next, it too may be getting “too big” because of your arrival. Obviously this is a complex and involved topic, I could continue on for many more hours typing on the topic, but I’ll stop for now. Please, if you have specific questions of me related to actions and plans of Sumter County, I would ask that you direct them to my county email address or call my office at the county and not ask me to address them here. I’ll discuss general topics, some of my opinions, and historical issues here, but always with an eye to being in compliance with the Florida Sunshine Laws and public records keeping requirements. |
Thank You
Don, you have made many positive contributions to TOTV over the years. This post is just another example.
Thank you, for sharing your knowledge and insight in the planning of our community. |
very interesting, thanks
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Excellent synthesis Don, truly an amazing story.
The continued innovation throughout the years is part of what brought is here. |
Thank you very enlightening
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Was building amenities first and then homes an effective strategy? If yes, why is south of 44 different?
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There will come a point in time when the developers will say "we've decided we really don't want to expand further, we're kinda finished here." Some descendent of the Morse Family will say "Nah, I'm gonna be a doctor instead." And that'll be the end of development of The Villages. That will also be the day when all those construction jobs are cut off. It will happen, eventually. There is only so far the developer -can- develop. The state has edges, it's not infinite.
It's an upside down pyramid. The Developer is on the bottom, alone. Everyone else is spread out on top, in layer upon layer of responsibility and benefit. The moment the Developer says they're done, EVERYONE topples. The bigger the pile on top of them, the more disastrous the result. As for your question - we moved into a pre-owned in the "Historic" section for precisely the reason that we wanted something that was lived-in and established. There wasn't enough money or perks in the world to convince us to move to the new sections. Even now that you've crossed Florida's Turnpike and 44, the furthest south I'd even consider would be the northern half of the O'Dell circle. And that'd be pretty iffy. It would definitely not be my first choice but I'd consider it, if we ever decided to move from our current location. In addition, not everyone profited off their jobs and saved up to afford to live here. Many of us borrowed. Some of us are paying mortgages, and there are plenty of Villagers who still work for a living because they can't afford to retire yet, or aren't old enough for social security benefits yet, and never earned enough to invest like some of you have. Some of us were fortunate enough to have bought our northern homes at what was a reasonable price at the time - not as an investment, but as a home we lived in for 10+ years. And were equally fortunate to be able to sell that home for more than we paid for it - which wasn't a business decision, it's just how the market was at the time we ended up being forced to move when we lost our jobs due to company closures and a tight hiring environment in mostly-obsolete skilled trades. After paying off the balance of the mortgage, we had enough to pay a sizeable portion of our Florida home, but nowhere near the full amount. I don't begrudge anyone for wanting something shiny and new to call their own in their retirement. But painting it all as the developer wanting to help the communities and keep people working - is disingenuous. The good news, is that SOME of those construction workers will still be needed to replace homes in the -northern- part of the Villages, as they start wearing down and need replacing. But if everyone working for the construction company (which has direct ties to the developer don't forget - so this is totally not a selfless act, the developer makes mega-bucks) is living in the southern-most areas, they're going to have the same kind of commute to get to work in the northern area, than they have now living 30+ miles from the current construction. It isn't sustainable. At some point, the structure will crumble. |
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If the rumors are correct, the Villages owns enough land to build for 20 or 30 years. I have no way to validate that. |
Always the voice of reason..
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Straw Man Fallacy | Excelsior Online Writing Lab Please stop. No one said the developer is doing things for only altruistic reasons, which is what you imply. That’s just silly. The profit motive of capitalism does come with altruistic benefits. It has brought much of the world out of extreme poverty. Is it perfect? No, it has blemishes certainly. But other systems have performed worse. It’s a time to celebrate. We live in the most prosperous and healthiest time in human history. Quote:
For those who want to learn more about whether capitalism is sustainable, here is a (long) lecture from a Duke University professor. https://youtu.be/6dVSOIiO_U8 (I suspect that cherry picked counter examples are about to come.) |
The number of seniors needing continued medical care will grow as the age of the Villagers increases. That will bring in more home care workers, nurses, physicians, social workers, physical therapists, and businesses to feed, cloth, transport, house and entertain them. As well as educate their kids.
Would put in the suggestion that the Villages needs at least two open movie theaters for this growing population. The construction industry will reach a point where there are not many more new houses to build. |
Thank you, Don.
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If you watch Don's videos, amenities continue to be built first... |
I'm sorry, but this sounds a lot like Monday morning quaterbacking by a fan of the Developer. The Developer did this so it must have been planned and more, it must be a good thing.
There is too much to cover and I don't have the motivation to do the research so just a couple of thoughts: - The Developer did not own the land south of 44 and had no reason to believe they would acquire the land. Stating that there would be no development south of 44 was an assumption but it was a reasonable assumption. It is certainly likely that the Developer desired to continue building (that's their business after all) but it wasn't a certainty that they would be able to. - If Brownwood could not exist without all the development south of 44 then how can Spanish Springs exist without miles and miles of development north of 441? - The restaurants and the square in Brownwood seemed busy four years ago before most of the homes south of 44 existed; it didn't seem like it was going out of business. Now, Brownwood seems overcrowded and many of us are hoping that Sawgrass takes off and Eastport is built soon to relieve the pressure. |
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I have no idea about the timing of the homes and golf courses around Brownwood or Lake Sumter Landing but I get the impression that there are a lot of homes south of 44 with few courses. There appear to be seven executive courses and three championship courses between 466A and 44. There appear to be only five executive courses and one championship course to support all the development south of 44. It looks like more are being built but they are not being built first. |
Don, you are spot on! As a retired CPA/Financial Advisor who has advised many successful business clients, I can say your thoughtful and detailed explanation is the most complete and well said answer to those who think The Villages is getting too big and the developers are only thinking of making more money. You make me proud that I voted for you!!
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Nowhere here am I saying that the developer isn't doing this for the money, because they most certainly are, nor am I saying that the developer is being altruistic because they are not, what I am saying is that they understand their business, that they understand how governments and communities think and react, and that doing what is perceived as good for the community as a whole and by playing the long game is a good investment in their own business.
They have another 20+ years of growth in the current Villages as we know it based on current known and anticipated land ownership. They have many thousands of additional acres owned throughout Sumter and surrounding counties, what their plans are, are well guarded secrets. What is certain is that local civic leaders need to be planning ahead for the time when the developer starts to change direction and our local economies need to take a different tack from the current course. But who knows, another 20 years is another 70,000+ homes, this will probably be the retirement capital of the world, should we all be fortunate to live so long, it will be interesting to watch happen. |
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They do what the Developer wants them to do. |
When I was looking at TV, I asked my Dad about a month before he died about its size as a concern. His answer (paraphrased).
"It is not a 100,000 people in a city, it is 50 or so communities. You will know many of yours but not many 2-3 Villages away. In West Islip, you don't even know the guy down the block. Put another way, I lived in Brooklyn. But I didn't grow up in Brooklyn - or even Williamsburg. I grew up on Stockholm St." Wise Man. |
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I said, yeah, but I don't live up there. I live down here, in a neighborhood with trees. I grew up in a suburb of Cincinnati, and I lived on my street, and went to my school, in the northeast quadrant of Greater Cincinnati. I never went to the other suburban communities that existed on the western fringes. Here in TV I live a 40 minute cart ride from Lopez, and an equal distance from Southern Oaks. I don't see myself needing to commute any farther than that to play golf. As they build courses farther away than Southern Oaks, I will play them only rarely, as a novelty, and probably drive a car. I'd treat it like a road trip. I don't see a problem there. I am a bit concerned about what seems to be a trend to build the common areas with less quality (e.g. the MMPs) and a system that I don't understand but according to Don Wiley's explanation, puts those of us south of 466 and north of 44 on the hook to maintain them when they fail. Not crazy about that, but in the bigger picture, a relatively small price to pay for the overall value I derive from living in TV. |
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The strategy continued South. Golf, pools, rec. centers, pickle, etc., were all constructed first. |
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The Developer is just what the word implies...a developer of property. When a particular area's development has been completed, the communities are turned over to a CDD. The Developer never intended to be a mother hen, looking after her flock into perpetuity. Ever hear of Del Webb? They are another successful developer of retirement communities, albeit with a totally different strategy. Del Webb communities tend to be smaller, and more isolated/individual as compared to The Villages. Once Del Webb completes a project/development, they vacate the area and turn the whole project over to an HOA. Yet, they continue to prosper and be popular even without their mother hen. I, for one, am glad The Villages developer has opted to play the long game, and I hope they continue to make a profit. Their business model is what has provided the communities we all call home. Their continued success means that we will continue to enjoy the benefits that brought us here in the first place. |
Thank you for taking the time for this.
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Two things
Thank you for your insight. As usual you are right on. We have lived here for almost 10 years and love seeing the new areas being developed. However that doesn’t mean that we turn our backs on some areas of concern.
First is the 462 and 466A intersection. That is going to be disaster on Sundays. We go to church at St Vincent. It is becoming insane getting to and especially getting out on Sunday. The pastor says they are gonna cut a new exit out to 134. That will help a little but when all that new development opens on 462 it will get unbearable. Secondly the entrance to St John’s at the okahumka rec center is going to be a real problem. If you drive your car to get your mail you are faced with having to use the round a bout to get back in when the card reader goes into effect. Poor planning. In my opinion. If you haven’t heard about this take a drive and study the traffic pattern coming out and going back into the village. By the way I think we need to decide if Harry is going build his restaurant at okuhumka rec and if not clean up that area. It looks like a dump for construction materials |
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To expect those amenities to be open before the first home may be NUTS but it is the very definition of "amenities continue to be built first." |
Truth be told
"To the many who believe things have gotten too big I ask you, did it get too big the day before or the day after you arrived? If it is too big for you, the roads go in both directions, but remember, if you leave, wherever you go next, it too may be getting “too big” because of your arrival."
"But my house should have been the last one built" LOL Thank you, Don, for your service to our community |
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On a smaller scale and remembering the residents that HAVE scraped to live here, those sold on the "lifestyle"... They can build a city. Can they open a movie theater so residents, sold on the "lifestyle" of say driving a golf cart to a movie with the grand-kids can do so?? Seriously, it's not about workers or covid, plenty of elderly people were working there to subsidize income. Cost to purchase a movie to run it? Nah, can't be cost could it? They can build a city. The Brownwood theater is gorgeous and is a perfect eample of TV developers, moving on. What's the excuse when they can move mountains and change the world for years to come. Villagers saying "Leesburg theater is great..." - WHAT??? DOES the trolley tour go to Leesburg now? Call it a trivial "first world problem" if one wants but it is a fair example of they build and move on. S of 44, you can see a BIG change brewing that will impact the parts of T V where they have moved on. |
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Don as always thank you for your insight. I always read your posts
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In the end, all the conjecture and musings mean nothing. We live in a wonderful place. Growth and change is inevitable. If we don't like it at any point, we can sell and move. It's as simple as that.
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Restaurants, stores, etc. are commercial development built once the population reaches the critical mass for profitable business. Given land south of the Turnpike was primarily populated by cattle, things didn't take off until that critical mass was achieved. The Fenny pioneers did wait a long time for more local business to open. Further complicated by the seasonal population changes here. Over 100 new homes continue to be sold a week. The commercial developers may have underestimated the growth rate. As soon as a new business, opens, it fills with customers day one. Three years of this was in the middle of COVID, but growth continued at substantial risk to the developers. As a side note, (The village of) Leesburg is just 15 min away from current construction so there is plenty of established shopping and restaurants closer than north of 466A. |
Thank you, Don, for sharing your knowledge and thank you for your service as a county commissioner. I enjoy the Goldwingnut videos and I am looking forward to your Spring Fling charity event at the Polo Fields on March 18th in memory of your son. Your hard work - on every level - is very much appreciated.
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Speaking as one who lives in a Major Developer community, there are some big differences I have noticed about this one which is now run by an HOA and TV. The quality of the construction here and of TV couldn't be more different. Our HOA has sustained extreme costs associated with the poor quality of construction above and beyond that of inflation. The smaller the community the more some vocal groups become the only voices heard. As a result we are looking to relocate to the villages. I have some experience in home construction and from my observations of what is being built in TV is far better than what is being offered by some Major Builders of retirement communities.
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Great post Don Wiley! We moved here nearly 14 yrs ago so have seen the growth. I'm happy the developer has a vision and puts plans into place. So many of our friends who've come can't believe this place. I think they envisioned manufactured homes instead of the ones we have in place. We've seen amenities added---the hospital, medical clinics, school and businesses. Some of these were here and had additions put in. I've never understood the mentality of first buying then wanting to change everything from the governance to infrastructure and just the way of doing business.
All this said, I'm still in contact via social media with the community we moved here from. The comments up there could be inter-changed with here. Complaints of growth, of traffic, how badly people drive, round-abouts----ALL the same as here. Oh, add in the healthcare too. When we left up there---medical care was great. NOW people are asking where are the doctors going and why did they leave??!!! Same as here! Frankly I'm very happy with our retirement decisions so have to wonder what utopia people think they're getting. Just a rhetorical question to cast out there. One I have is---were y'all happy where you once came from and if so, why did you move?? Whatt were/are your expectations once you did?? |
Thanks Don for your continued updates in insights!
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Thanks Don for your continued updates and insights! Always a good read.
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