Another Week Of No Hurricanes Forecast
 

Three reasons.
1 - Sections of the Atlantic are beginning to cool.
2 - Sahara dust continues.
3 - Tonga is still creating upper atmospheric warming - which inhibits tropical convection.

All good, but September historically is when we have more hurricanes. We will see.

Let me guess, we can hear all about it at next month’s Weather Club meeting. :1rotfl:

Yes -- and tomorrow -- Aug 26 at 1 PM at Bridgeport. Don't tell anyone, but comments will be made that La Nina is very late, which is delaying and reducing tropical activity. Many believe Tonga's warming is preventing (or slowing) La Nina's entrance into the Pacific.

There are 2 in the Pacific, those do not count?

⭐ For you Ken

The Atlantic and Pacific are 2 different oceans -- separated by North America. However, like the Atlantic, the Pacific storm season also started late. The really interesting thing is that while the Atlantic is showing early signs of cooling, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been steady cooling for over 7 years -- which is part of the reason why the Northwest Rockies are getting hit with early season snows -- a great reminder that global warming is not global.

I think El Niño should be bombed, or assassinated.
Two really lousy, wet, cool summers, now in UK.
My tomatoes are still bl**dy green.
What Global Warming?

Hone in the Pacific drenching the Hawaiian Islands-particularly the Islanf of Hawaii’s Hilo side…

Numerous Twitter/X folks are complaining about the "chilly" global warming in the UK. It appears that the AMO is trying to start its cold cycle -- like the one that produced snow in Miami in 1977. Don't sell your snow shovel.

Gosh give us a break and talk about something other than weather a short term phenomenon vs climate a long term phenomenon

Good idea. How about ... solar panels help protect bunny rabbits from hail.

weather is what old people talk about...and now it's Hurricane season adding additional stress to the heart..

What does the temp anomaly mean on the graph? What is the expected norm being deviated from? Is it the Milkanovitch Cycles temp?

Why? It is shoveled down our throats by the Church of the AGW.

Fortunately, global warming makes the tropical atmosphere more stable, which inhibits tropical cyclone development. This science of this trend is explained at the Weather Club.

I heard green tomatoes are great when fried. So good, they made a movie about it!

Global warming is created by pirates. As the number of pirates dropped, temps went up. This is truth, the data shows it. Anyone who disagrees redises to follow the science and must be canceled!

Yes, I am showing that correlation is not causation. Something many people forget.

https://donhillson.wordpress.com/wp-...1/03/graph.jpg

Please ask this question today (Aug 26) at 1 PM at Bridgeport for greater explanation. However, an anomaly is a deviation of the mean of at least 30 years of data. The AMO & PDO (which are on 60-year cycles) are not derived from the Milankovitch cycles (which are on 40,000 to 120,000 year cycles). The AMO and PDO do affect tropical storm activity.

So the temp is water and not atmosphere.
Using charts with missing vital info (such as what temps are being shown, especially when air temps were also mentioned) causes confusion.
Not an attack, just a note to help you be clear in the future.

I never realized that weather could be this boring.

post hoc ergo propter hoc

The AMO and PDO graphs are ocean index temperature data - and very important in short-term climate change. Most don't know this because the media will not talk about this data because it exposes the fraud behind the CO2 control knob theory. The Weather Club talk will discuss this and more in detail in November ... The Villages Weather Club

Pirates have a different opinion.

Your lousy wet is the result of our fish storms, tropical cyclones that develop and sputter out over the eastern Atlantic instead of intensifying and heading west to North America

Utway usday athay eanma estionquay arcmay(?)
😃🤭

# 3 Tonga has a minimal effect on world weather. Interesting fact .....hurricane Beayl was the EARLIEST cat 5 Atlantic Hurricane on RECORD. There is STILL an above normal probability (90%) of a major Hurricane before Sept. 24. Sept 15 is the peak on the graph of all US hurricanes.
Note........I don't think that the Sahara dust is STILL coming, but I need to check that out to be sure.

In Wikipedia there is an article all about the Tonga Eruption. About on the 11 th paragraph down is this statement. "Later calculations indicate that it was UNLIKELY to have any global cooling effects". Much further down in the article it is stated that "greenhouse gas emissions remain the MAJOR determinant of risk"
.....Also - "Peak Saharan dust runs from late June through mid-August"

"global warming is NOT global"-------that is an unusual statement because, by definition Global Warming means it IS Global. Climate Scientists record the temperatures from ALL parts of the world. That how they know that the Earth has been increasing in warming for the last 30 years.

"Sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are trending 1.8 deg F above normal. It is worse in the Gulf of Mexico."

Higher ocean temperatures worldwide mean that the air holds more moisture - so greater rain.

Not being aware of something that one should be aware of can cause long-term stress.

Sorry, Tonga is they most important climate event to happen in over 2,000 years. It was an unprecedented event which is now causing unprecedented global warming -- because the DATA shows it.

"CO2 control knob theory"......that sparks my curiosity big-time. A knob would INFER that some human or humans are controlling the CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere for some either grand good or villainous reason. Since that is unlikely then I will fall back to what I have read about CO2 and its effects in the last 30 years. CO2 production from the world's factories and automobiles has increased PAST the point that the world's plants and oceans can absorb all of the CO2 produced by the increased population of the world. Coral reefs are dying and world temperatures have increased dramatically in the last 30 years. Actually 2023 and 2024 have set records for HEAT related DEATHS in the US and likely also worldwide. Amazing----the price we (as humans) are willing to pay for our unwillingness to SIMPLY drive more E-vehicles and fewer ICE-vehicles. Ah ......that old buggaboo .....GREED and human fear of change has hit us right in the over-cooked planet;s gut !!!!!

That is SO very TRUE about the VAPORIZED H2O and that is why scientists INITIALLY thought that Tonga would have a BIG effect on the world's temperatures. But, as I wrote in a much earlier (weeks earlier) post - the University of Texas REAL climate scientists state that after greater analysis they determine that Tonga has had a minimal effect on world Climate. Anyway The Tonga Eruption began way back in Dec. 2022 so has ZERO relevance to Climate today. Population increases and CO2 production from automobiles and industry are the culprits. Maybe I could present that at the Village Weather Club. I would change a reasonable price for that.

That graph, toward the right end, looks a lot like the graph of increased world POPULATION in last 30 years.

None of your articles address the UAH data because it doesn't fix their fake CO2 control knob theory. In other words they are illegitimate (junk science) articles because they ignore key data. Only Tonga's water vapor can explain the 2023/2024 temperature spike. This will again be presented Sep 6 at 4 PM at Lake Miona.

If one isn’t aware of something, how can it cause long term stress?

Good question. Let's say you are age 25 or 30 and have a good job and lots of friends. You get in a habit of drinking a few beers every day after work. You might NOT realize that you are becoming addicted to alcohol AND you keep gaining weight. You go on for years drinking with friends.One day you wake up with a heart attack. You were not aware of your problem until it was too late. Going forward, you have a bunch of pathetic unhealthy years. You end up with long term stress. There could be other examples, also.

I did NOT mention any articles. Not sure what the UAH is (universal atmospheric have-nots is) ? And now THEY have a FAKE control knob theory. I am having trouble interpreting whatever the idea there is ?