Hurricane "Experts" backing off on extreme seasonal outlook
 

This article came out yesterday. It's fairly long report on why their forecasts are turning out to be wrong again this year. Hurricane experts now predict below-normal activity into September'''s season peak | Fox Weather

I won't believe it until the TV Weather Club approve the report! :ho:

Imagine that -since early August “they” kept reporting, “just wait another week or so, and hurricane frequency will greatly ramp up”; It’s like “they” had a vested interest in a very active hurricane season to propel their agenda and save face from yet another year of inaccurately predicting what the season will look like.

Probably a very good idea!

If only it was as benign as to "save face". Unfortunately, "their" agenda is far more nefarious. The idea is to push the myth of imminent and catastrophic global warming to frighten the gullible and indoctrinated into supporting the proposed Paris accords plan of "combating" climate change to the tune of $168 TRILLION, which will line the pockets of the few that are pulling the strings of politicians, media and academia. And there is a whole array of creative taxes on the drawing board to pay for this folly. In retirement communities such as The Villages, the most frightening tax, much scarier than the specter of a warmer planet 50,000 years from now is the "wealth tax". This is where they come along and confiscate a percentage of your accumulated assets (which you have already paid tax on) each and every year. Depending on the percentage, how long do you think you'll last with this tax as well as the inflation that this ridiculous expenditure would cause????

It is always something, isn't it? Every year since Katrina (which was supposed to signal the beginning of a HURRICANE ARMAGEDDON for GAWDsakes of SUPER POWERFUL STORMS that the planet has never YET SEEN), there've been excuses, one or more per year, as to just why this wasn't happening.

That info probably exists on the 'net. Be fun to find and catalog it.

It is not the end of the season yet. Hurricanes can and probably will still happen. And when they do, we will definitely hear about them. But this 18-year trend of doleful-predictions-followed-by-hollow-excuses is holding strong.

Just a few of the "reasons" I was able to find.


1: The stratosphere apparently has to be abnormally warm for heightened hurricane formation. “Strong cold anomalies are being detected in the stratosphere over Southern Hemisphere. The anomalous cooling results from the water vapor coming from the January Hunga Tonga eruption. Cooling on this scale has not been seen in modern satellite records, so this is a significant event.” (Andrej Fles, “Severe Weather Europe”, 29/08/2022)

2: Subsurface ocean temps are too cool to produce energetic la Nina, which is apparently essential for hurricane formation. “Right now, the subsurface temperatures are much cooler than during El Niño…The immediate near-surface temperatures are still warmer, but the subsurface water pool and the warm water pool have dissipated, and so once that pops to the surface, it becomes La Niña,” (Pitchstone waters dot com, April 9, 2024). I wonder--how do they measure "subsurface" ocean temps, and how far down?

3: Wind Shear isn’t doing what it is supposed to be doing. “upper-level winds over the Atlantic tend to be stronger than usual, and thus stronger wind shear results. The faster air flow in the upper troposphere leads to faster wind speed with increasing height, making the upper atmosphere less favorable for tropical storm development.” (“Meet Wind Shear, the Phenomenon That Can Rip a Hurricane Apart” Zachary Handlos, Scientific American dot com, May 23, 2024)

4: Winds coming off the Sahara haven’t been as conducive to hurricane formation as usual. (Office of Response and Restoration, NOAA.GOV). A sort of confusing read.

5: “Hurricane Nadine in 2012 had dry Saharan air circulating near it—another potential inhibitor of intensification. In general, dry air can sink to the surface creating pools of cold air. The cold air often weakens the storm because it steals energy that would otherwise be available to the storm to grow stronger.” (“Since Katrina: NASA Advances Storm Models, Science”, Phys dot org, 8/21/2015

6” “Global warming is making the atmosphere more hostile to the formation of tropical cyclones.” (Andrea Thompson, Scientific American, 6/27/22).

7: “An unusual African monsoon season is not producing the sort of atmospheric seeds that typically go on to become hurricanes. Air high above the tropical Atlantic is so warm that it is actually preventing storms from brewing”. (Why Hurricane Season is Suddenly Quiet”, Scott Dance, The Washington Post). Note how this directly conflicts with Rationalization #1.

Anyway, there you have it. A hodgepodge of rationalizations, some apparently in direct contradiction to others. But all "scientific".

If meteorologists aren't scaring you, they are not doing their job! lol

I will make my annual prediction for this year at the end of hurricane season. So far batting 1000.

Why bother???? Hurricanes never hit the Village of Stu :1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

Oh no! One less hurricane. Let’s get a congressional inquiry going pronto!

It’s a guesstimate made months ago to anticipate a natural disaster. So what if it’s being downgraded.

Chill!

What????? Huh?????

That's not what the thread is all about. No one thinks the media should not report a hurricane that is out to sea and may approach land.

The point is that certain powers have an agenda to make TRILLIONS off the backs of our citizens, and the media is either actively or tacitly complicit in pushing this false narrative by forecasting imminent doom via predictions of more frequent and devastating hurricanes and daily reports of "heat indices" vs. the actual temperatures.

My favorite is #6. Directly against all the fear mongering of stronger & more frequent damaging storms due to 'you know what'. Rationalizations are made all over the map & that way they can pick & choose whichever story suits their purposes.

All true. But it is not just the hurricanes. It is the incessant hoopla that precedes them that is fascinating. I think the progression is "tropical wave", followed by "tropical depression", followed by "tropical storm", all culminating in of course the HURRICANE. The doom-and-gloomers start their caterwauling every time a "wave" comes into being (or even if the conditions are ripe to produce one). I once looked up the frequencies of those. Can't recall exactly but it was something like only 50% of waves become "depressions, only 50% of depressions become tropical storms, and only 50% (sometimes much fewer) of tropical storms become hurricanes. But the way they're selling it Armageddon is just around the corner every time a wave appears.

But it is not just hurricanes. Back in Minnesota we had low temps in the winter as a matter of course. A favorite of forecasters seemed to be POSSIBLE wind chills, as in "wind chills are forecast to be as low as -55". That was the that limit of the range, and it rarely reached it, but it did indeed help to frighten people.

Another oddity was the "polar vortex". In the more northern climes, right after a substantial snowfall, we'd get a "Canadian High". Bright blue skies, lower temps, and wind. A Canadian High was to be welcomed: it meant that we could go out and shovel/plow the most recent accumulation, haul up some more firewood, strap on the X/C skis and go for a quick trip over the bright new snow, etc. However one day the weather guys stopped forecasting Canadian Highs and instead started calling them a "polar vortex". They (of course) emphasized the wind and the temperature drop in their forecasts, warning parents to PLEASE BE SURE L'il Jennifer was bundled to the max because of that GAWDawful polar vortex that was on the way (as if Minnesota parents don't know that already) and recommended supervision AT ALL TIMES when kids ventured out in mid-vortex.

The kicker is that one weather guy actually admitted that the term "polar vortex" was coined for precisely that reason. To generate fear.

Yep. Incite fear in the gullible and you can make them do just about anything.

Climate vs. weather.

And they are not very good at predicting things more than a few weeks out. But they are getting really accurate at a few hours ahead.

This is a perfect definition of Climate Change.

So true!!!

Climate Change is now being used as the REASON for deteriorating bridges and roads up north.
Not one mention of not performing routine maintenance. Nothing about how fewer freeze/thaw cycles reduces the number of pot holes. Nothing about how cutting corners during construction causes troubles sooner than later. Nope. All due to climate change.

Fear not ! The BUBBLE protects us...

Fox News, CSU, and all the experts failed to mention the root cause of the hurricane lull ... Tonga. This was mentioned in prior Weather Club presentations, with the next one this Sep 6, at 4 PM at Lake Miona. Those who study weather data versus climate alarmism are aware of Tonga's unprecedented global warming spike, which is causing unprecedented ripple effects across the global - including monsoon-like rains in the Sahara. The reason those so-called experts refuse to mention Tonga is because it's Tonga's massive injection of "water-vapor" into the stratosphere that's causing the huge global warming temperature spike. In other words it exposes the fraudulent CO2 control-knob theory and clearly shows that water-vapor is the monster greenhouse gas control knob.

Just another example of pushing the false global warming agenda.

They are afraid of the possible repercussions of hurting any of our residents

Yep, they know more than those weather scientists who spent years educating themselves on the weather.

You forget, they get paid to say certain things and for avoiding to say certain things. Anyone who worked in government (or large bureaucracies) very well know this. I personally know 2 individuals who work for NOAA who said they are not allowed to publicly voice their "expert" opinions about climate climate change while representing NOAA. In other words, those people have a choice -- support your faith or support your family -- and for the most part supporting family comes first -- except for the whistle-blowers. To hear what some are not allowed to say ... Sep 6, 4 PM, Lake Miona.

You forget, they get paid to say certain things and for avoiding to say certain things. Anyone who worked in government (or large bureaucracies) very well know this. I personally know 2 individuals who work for NOAA who said they are not allowed to publicly voice their "expert" opinions about climate climate change while representing NOAA. In other words, those people have a choice -- support your faith or support your family -- and for the most part supporting family comes first -- except for the whistle-blowers. To hear what some are not allowed to say ... Sep 6, 4 PM, Lake Miona.

I simply repeated that post since it doesn't seem to sink into some people's heads

We do keep hearing that many weather scientists are not allowed to voice their own opinions only what they are told to say

Well, they can. But it will result in loss of grant money, inability to get published, and denial of tenure----in other words, professional suicide

Kind of the opposite of the flat earth agenda. That is false but people kept pushed it.

Global warming is a reality but people keep insisting it is not happening when a lot of research shows it is very real.

And of course if some expert keeps saying the world is flat that is simply not true.

Correct. Global warming is a reality---it started 20,000 years ago when we were living in caves

It is happening, no one is insisting it isn't

It is real, obviously, since the Northern Hemisphere is no longer covered by 2 miles of ice

However, it has NOTHING TO DO WITH HUMAN ACTIVITY.

Research shows the opposite.

Yes, "research"

Re-read posts #24-27. This has been explained a hundred times.

Hardly.

Global warming is a rather settled matter. That is what scientists do. Gather facts using a hypothesis and then reach a conclusion based on their understanding of those facts.

Whever happened to acid rain ? We were all gonna die, remember ?

Acid rain was a pollution problem -- we fixed that.

Ozone hole was never proven to be human-caused.

CO2 pollution is a complete lie.

And yes we are all gonna die ... but will most likely live longer than our ancestors due, in part, to global warming and increasing CO2.

As the OP I would like to conclude by pointing out that if they are so wrong about a few weeks of Hurricane season, why would anyone listen to them about what will happen decades from now. I am not rushing out to buy an EV, even though they may eventually force us to.

CO2 has been pouring from the earth for billions of years and yet the atmosphere contains 0.04% CO2...Things that make you go, Huh. When someone says "settled science" it just reveals they don't know anything about science.

Ditto. You can believe your eyes or you can believe the lies. None of the Hurricane models have ever produced an accurate complete path forecast, just like none of the Climate models have ever produced an accurate climatic change forecast. Models are not data -- they are just a crude means to move assumptions about reality into the future.

I just watched the weather and they haven’t decreased the number of tropical storms or hurricanes since they came out with their dire predictions. So now we have 1/2 the time to get in 90% of the storms in. Now they are predicting that the hurricane season will go past November this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised that in the future they will make the hurricane season year round.
Most of us aren’t that gullible, but some are and want to push this doomsday agenda to its fullest.
I’m assuming the Weather Channel is getting paid by these doomsday promoters because the last couple of years, the Weather Channel has been saying this year is the worst ever, storms are getting worse/stronger, and they are pushing the agenda to create a new “Cat 6” rating for hurricanes. I stopped watching these clowns.
Last year, I thought it was funny that the weather channel told florida evacuees don’t use their EVs when leaving because there won’t be enough charging stations on the exit route when you run out of power and I like this 1, if caught in high waters, your EV can catch fire. That had to hurt when they said this.

That is what you imagine all scientists do. Fixed it.

Scientists are human and act on incentives, like other humans. You know that scientists have incentives other than altruism, right?

Geo-engineering and weather manipulation around the globe is causing anomolies that are unpredictable worldwide. Floods in Dubai from cloud seeding to grow grass where nature says grass doesn't grow.
Floods in CA.

Creating climate change has consequences the powers that be can't necessarily predict. Meteorologists are creating new language like "corn sweating" "heat domes" in the western parts of the US which in reality is natural traspiration being corrupted by layers of SAI's blocking natural weather transpiration and evaporation. Not to mention creating heat. They report "monsoons" and "cyclones" (saaay whaaaat????) in the mid-west parts of the US... yeah, totally normal weather if you listen to weather reporters.

If only one country played God with Stratospheric Aerosol Injections, cloud bleaching, seeding and other weather modification techniques to "control climate change" or "dim the sun" they might actually be able to tell climate engineering worked. With the whole world experimenting with weather they are creating climate change and it is wreaking havoc on natural weather change including pretty much the 9 months of drought FL has experienced until the last week or so. The Villages never used to feel like AZ until FL looked the other way regarding weather control.

TN has banned ALL weather modification. Good for them! Remember living creatures are not the experiment. The weather is.