Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Hi Everyone, As you probably have heard real estate is in a big downturn -- in fact many homebuilders are facing their toughest times yet. Check out BZH stock listing down from 80. There has been a tremendous amount of new home building in the area. What is the general feeling about home prices in the Villages and will charges for amenities be burdensome to pay for the long term debt issued? Thank you for your thoughts -- a potential homebuyer.

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

Hi,
There are a number of threads on this forum covering recent prices etc.. If you drill down you'll find them. We're getting ready to buy and my take is that TV IS dealing on their new homes. Their deals are dragging down resale prices notably. Also, purchasing a resale thru MLS is going to permit more flexibility on pricing. Good news for buyers in general I would say!

On the flip side, as an owner/seller, over the long term, I think The Villages is a good investment because of all the many desireable features lacking in many other communities. No matter how low the prices go, they will recover sooner at TV I believe.

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Thanks, my concerns with developments are-- if amenities are built and not all the property is sold who covers the remaining assessments on unsold property and can they be reallocated to existing home owners under any circumstance? Are there any circumstances that additional assessments can be levied? If the property developer is on the hook what happens if he walks away? Does anyone know what the total debt of the development is verses the current assessed value of the property?? -- The Villages is a nice place but you should always know what you are buying.

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Captain -

We just found the same thing in TV. There are really good deals to be had. Drove around Duval, for instance, and there is just about every type of home you may want that have fab. deals attached. Lots of just built ones. But, for instance, the house across from ours was just put on the market (new) and in 4 days there was a buyer. Not that they will all be snapped up like that, but people are realizing the good deals.

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Hi Darbyduff,

Just spoke with a colleague who is moving to TV within the month (or so). Like you, he will be purchasing a new build from the developer. He had his Realtor, in fact Realtors, show him many resales. He checked out both VLS and MLS and determined that the resales were currently very overpriced due to the discounts being offered by the developer. Until those with houses to sell price them to market conditions, they will have strangers marching through their homes for quite a long time only to see the buyers doing what you did.....BUYING NEW.

So happy for you that things have worked out better than you could have expected. Now I can't sign off without commenting on that great Broncos' victory yesterday. How exciting! Even the television play-by-play crew said that they wouldn't be able to get the kick off in time....wrong! Jason still has the leg. Lodo must have been hopping last night....spent way to many evenings down there. Take care.

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I've been looking at 2 sites lately, one the official Villages website's pre-owned homes, and the other the Sumter County tax assesor office website ( I found the address here).
Very interestingly, you can plug in an address (if it's in Sumter Co) and get LOTS of information including the names of the owners, the general design of the home (sq ft under air, etc) and the sale prices of the homes for each sale.
I've noticed homes that were bought within a year or so actually selling (asking) for LESS than the price paid last year. Homes bought earlier have appreciated.

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SteveFromNY ... The Sumter County Tax Assessor website is a helpful site SteveFromNY. I would have to say that almost any home purchase in FL, CA, NV, AZ and a few other markets is upside down or very close to flat if that house was purchased from late 2005 to early 2007. It may be ego or foolishness for sellers of resales not to price to market conditions. Many folk watched in awe as the value of their homes escalated over the past few years. They want to sell now for what their home was valued at 18 months ago....ain't gonna happen (as they say). The builders and developers are not in love with their products; thus, lowering the prices is not an emotional factor for them. Homeowners need to learn the same lesson or they'll be getting even less next year than they could this year if priced appropriately. In The Villages it's tough competition to sell a resale. Sellers must compete with the discounts offered by the developer as well as reasonably priced MLS and VLS. When the rebound occurs, prices will rise sooner in TV than elsewhere; that's for sure. Question is: "When will the rebound take place?". Continuing to pay bond, r.e. taxes, utilities, insurance, amenity fees, etc. while holding out for the very last nickel is, indeed, penny wise and dollar foolish. All those expenses plus the downward direction of home prices won't be recouped by stubbornly refusing to price to market. As any earlier poster stated: Beazer Homes sold for much more than the $9.33 it fetches today - that's market conditions at work!

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Az2FL - I am PAINFULLY aware of the realestate market today! I am selling my "big" house in NY right now. It's been on the market since May and I have adjusted the price down a number of times. I've been looking at the interest being paid for both a 1st and 2nd mort and cannot wait for them to be gone! I could buy a new golf cart every other month with the money I'll be saving!!! ;D

When the house was appreciating every month I didn't mind. At the end of the year I could compare the gain with the expenses and see I was ahead. Now it's like I'm burning the money every month. It hurts.

I have a lot of emotional attachment to my house in NY - been there 24 years and raised 3 children - lot's of memories, But I am not letting that get in the way now. And I don't plan on selling the house in TV anytime soon so it'll all work out in the end!

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Hang in there, Steve!!

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SteveFromNY -- You can only gain in TV as long as you have no intention of selling anytime soon. Are you located in upstate NY? I was under the impression that the NYC and suburbs were holding up pretty well with prices and that homes were selling relatively quickly. I'm in AZ and the market got way overheated here. I had intended to put it onto the resale market but other considerations are preventing that for now. When/if I do, in fact, put it up for sale, I'll be pricing below neighborhood comps because when it's time to move, it's time to move and I'll be very satisfied with the return on this investment. And, yes, you have plenty of emotional attachments to the house and that makes it all the more painful.

If Freddie and Fannie (FHA) are permitted to raise the amount of home-loan limits, that would help free up this logjam we find ourselves in right now. Currently, FHA loan limit is set at $417,000. When you consider that you can't get much of a house for that amount in places like California, lower New York State, and many large city metropolitan areas there aren't many lenders willing to touch a higher amount mortgage application right now. Currently, H.R. 1427 would allow Freddie and Fannie to guarantee loans up to $625,000.
With the number of adjustable rate mortgages getting ready to reset over the next six months to a year (or more), having access to lower rates on loans up to $625k could help these families keep their homes and allow movement in the real estate sector to get going again. Contact your legislator and ask him/her to support this bill. My sincerest (and I mean that) best wishes for a quick sale of your NY home.

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Thanks!

I'm in NYC (Staten Island) and, upon the advice of my crack realtor, over-priced the house by a large amount.

Wife and I had a number in mind, but greed got us, and we went with his recommendation. We've adjusted downward. We are getting decent action on the home now that's it in a more realistic ballpark, but even here, where the prices are doing OK, there is still a lot of inventory and buyers are moving slooooow! We received requests for re-shows weeks after the 1st show, and offers (LOW ones) weeks after that. Not like the days where people made on the spot offers! It's just taking more time than I wanted, and my problem is I need to work for awhile after the sale if I want to do all the fun things I want to do when I finally get to TV (pavers, palm trees, etc). So this house full of memories is quickly becoming my nightmare!

But I am hanging in there and hopefully will be down there within 1 year.

And thanks for your support!

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Well, fortunately for you, SteveFromNY, employment is still going well in NYC. And with a pleasant ferry ride from lower Manhattan and Wall Street, Staten Island is like living in the burbs but enjoying the lower real estate tax which NYC offers. Just think: you could be out on Long Island and dealing with much higher monthly real estate taxes. I'm hopeful for that once the financial markets calm down and ladies and gentlemen are assured of their continued employment buying a nice home on Staten Island will be something they'll consider. The Staten Island Frerry - what a nice way to commute to work each morning! The bridge provides a nice view while sitting in traffic, though.

Sorry that New York's ONLY football team lost yesterday to the Broncos. The two New Jersey teams didn't fare any better. Just a little kidding from a kid who once lived in NYC. As Samhass said in a previous posting: "Hang in there".

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AZ2FLA - I'm hanging in there. And thanks for the good wishes! You're right about the employment - there are some decent jobs here, and the NYC real estate taxes are lower than the surrounding areas (NYC income taxe helps offset that though)

For a visit the ferry is a must see, but after 20-something years of riding the ferry it loses a bit of its charm. I am now working in NJ and doing a reverse commute, and it still takes an hour each way.


I'm more of a Colts-Dolphins fan. I grew up in Baltimore and loved the Colts. When the Dolphins began and Shula went south, I had mixed feelings. Then the Colts moved, and I'm still partial to them. So I kind of like them both still! :dontknow:

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Union:
A lot earlier in this thread, you expressed a kind of broad concern over the eventual health of this development, querying in general whether there was/is any worry about our developer (often referred to as The Developer) and his commitment and/or potential to run-away-from-it-all.
I think I can wholeheartedly assure you, and I think others on TOTV would agree, The Developer will most definitely not run away. He's built a community of 65,000 or more happy seniors and isn't about to abandon them (or, some would say his very lucrative income!) This IS NOT A FLY-BY-NIGHT type place, and you may feel completely comfortable with its continued viability, regardless of what the housing market is!

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I most certainly would not feel "completely" comfortable with THE DEVELOPER aka The Morse family. Keep your eyes open and listen carefully. Don't be fooled. The Villages is a nice place to live; it is not utopia nor is it run by an altruist.

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Thanks for the updates, I will be coming down to visit around Christmas and will check in. Does anyone know if lots are developed and not sold if there is a possibility existing owners would have their assessments or fees go up. Who pays for or is responsible for all the loans that the developer has taken out to financing the infrastructure and spec homes? I would not want to be on the hook for more than I thought. Please keep me up on anything you might hear. Thanks, Union

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My view:

If you look at the number of people on this forum (TOTV) you will see that very many of us are non-owners in TV at this time. You can view that as interest. If that many of us are interested enough to spend time on a forum for a development that we do not live in then you can assume that the interest in TV is alive and well.

We (us current non-TVers) will still move into TV in the future despite the slow down. Many of us are just waiting for northern homes to sell at a fair price which may take a few years in some cases but that wont stop the long term goal.

You can rest assured that the Morse family WILL complete TV even if their profit margins go down slightly doing it.

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We did not look at the Villages as an investment property. After retirement we wintered and rented in the Florida Keys, Stuart, Jupiter, Naples and Singer Island for three years, we decided that the Villages was a wonderful place to spend the winters (7 months a year) in our golden years. We have not been disappointed. Most of all, our new friends and neighbors add so much to our lives. The lifestyle, amenities and ambiance here is unparalleled anywhere we have been.

You can be delightfully active seven days or just kick back and enjoy the sweet clean air and sunshine. We golf, play softball, ride our Harley, visit friends and love every minute here.

We are here for the distance run and really are not bothered by real estate market fluctuations. If you are a speculator who bought high, wait it out. If you are thinking about buying, now is the time because when the market reverses, it will, you won't be able to get these homes at the current bargain prices. If you want to enjoy life to the fullest....this is it.

We have found the developer to be a class act. Our friends who were impacted by the tornado have nothing but accolades for the assistance he has given. Being modestly familiar with builders, I can say that without hesitation, The Villages is the most responsive when it comes to hassle free warranty work and followup. The construction here is superior to anything I've seen in other developments. I guess you can always find someone who disagrees but that is human nature and not the consensus.

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The earlier comments in this thread indicate that during September prices were down from 2005-2006 levels. Now that another month has passed, anyone know whether prices are holding low, moving lower, inching upward? Also, do you think the developer is "dealing" on new home prices-- other than the "...by November 5th..." offer I received, which gives 10% of any Ranch/Designer/Premier price to be used toward furniture or golf carts. Well, that's not exactly Give, but it's their offer. Also, when TV quotes a monthly amenity fee, is there some other fee tacked on that I should ask about? Other than the bond? Today I'm making calls to find a rental for the last week of October. Any recommendations for a good realtor? Thanks!

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Having spent weeks,days and hours looking at resales & new homes, etc.,in TV my wife and I decided on new because most resales seemed overpriced compared to the costs and discounts of new.

Until the resellers rethink and lower the prices, homes are going to sit for the most part. It might be wise for them to wait till 2009/10 or later to put it on the market if they need to get the most out of it.

As for myself we own a beach front shore house in Ocean City, NJ. In the fall of 2006 were offered 3.2 M and said no thanks. Now that same house when we tried to sell it this year having gotten tired of it got offered 2.1 M.

So it's gonna sit awhile.

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When comparing the new and resale homes be sure not to overlook all the up grades and additional work that has been put into the resale home. Some of the new ones are basic and it could cost lots of $$$ to put in needed items. Also check the quality. We bought a resale and found many additional items included. Just make sure you are comparing apples to apples.

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So true, Sandy. You can spend a fortune making your new home a home. Landscaping, window treatments, gutters, pavers, surge protection....the list goes on. In a preowned home many of those items are done, bonds may be paid, and builders closing has been paid.
Your first year in a new home will be accompanied by the loud sucking noise of money flowing out of your wallet!!

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Another thing to consider as well, is the bond. I've heard the bond in Duval is in the $20,000 range. In Ashland, near Palmer, the bond was only $5000. As you mentioned, the landscaping is a big thing too. It takes years for the landscaping to be come established.

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Thanks, good information - trying to pick the bottom of the market is not always the best thing to do but from what I have read recently we have another round of rate resets that will in many causes double mortgage payments next year. My guess is that about Sept of next year we will be close to the bottom. I notice from reading replies that there are a lot of renters in TV. This is also a sign that many homes were purchased on spec. which when the mortgages are reset along with the non-owner homestead added property tax will make them very non profitable to owners giving them incentive to sell. As you can see from the previous entry there are other developments in the Central Florida area in the same situation. Florida is notorious for boom and bust cycles in real estate dating back to the 1930s looks like we just have to work through one more. Hold in there and we will get through it. Please keep us posted on new developments in TV.

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Union....don't know if I would equate rentals in Villages with spec investors. Many people buy homes here several years in advance of retirement and rent it out in the interim to cover expenses until they move here more permanently. Also, purchasing (new) requires a 20% down payment which will scare off pure speculators. TV IS much more renter friendly than most developments, I believe. I had looked at Solivita and they put restrictions on rentals...had to be a minimum of 6 months.

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There are great buys to be had .We just purchase a Camden II for $230,000 and will receive $23,000 in free furniture. Can't wait.

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I agree with Villages07 that rentals in TV are not necessarily caused by spec investors. As she mentioned, some people buy in advance of retirement. Also, there are many buyers who use their homes only seasonally and rent the rest of the time.

As far as trying to "time the market", I was a real estate broker for many years, and I've noticed that the market usually doesn't bottom out and then stay flat. It is like a bouncing ball, it hits bottom and bounces back up. As Union said, the real estate market is notorious for cycles. By the time the general public has been advised by the media that the market has bottomed out and is starting to rise, the smart investors have purchased and are waiting for the inevitable boom. It is all a cycle.

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Those are very good points. It is always difficult to say how long a downturn will last and many times its turned around before you know it. According to what I have read this has the potential to be fairly severe if fact much more severe than in the early '90's when the government set up the RTC to liquidate properties like developments for pennies on the dollar - you probably remember that. One thing I dont understand if anyone knows. When a developer spends hundreds of millions to build infrastructure and amenities like golf courses how is that paid for if homes dont sell. They typically issue bonds and borrow from banks to raise the capital -- just the interest on those loans must be staggering. If I purchase a home am I responsible, do I know exactly the most I will have to pay??? Can they raise maintenance or property tax?? I would like to know how this works from residences of TV. I have never bought in a development but have heard some pretty awful stories (not in TV). My family lives in Ocala so I may move down there but I am not sure I want to take on the liabilities of a development without knowing the most I would have to pay. Does anyone know?????

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:agree:Glad to see SOMEBODY out there has a firm grasp on REALITY and is not totally overawed with all the "fairy dust" (aka: Disneyland for Adults!!!!!) floating around here. "The Family" is in this for ONE thing...$$$$$$ Get real people and quit buying into the "Utopia" theme they want you to believe. Like we really live in a "Gated Community"....yea right!!!

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[quote=az2fla ]
Hi Darbyduff,

Just spoke with a colleague who is moving to TV within the month (or so). Like you, he will be purchasing a new build from the developer. He had his Realtor, in fact Realtors, show him many resales. He checked out both VLS and MLS and determined that the resales were currently very overpriced due to the discounts being offered by the developer. Until those with houses to sell price them to market conditions, they will have strangers marching through their homes for quite a long time only to see the buyers doing what you did.....BUYING NEW.
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REGARDING THE ABOVE QUOTE: I have to jump in here and put in my 2 cents worth regarding resales. You talk about resales being OVERPRICED and emphasized that until the resellers get real they'll have a lot of strangers through their homes....On behalf of most of us who ARE those resellers, let me say that MOST of us have put a considerable amount of time, money and effort into improving our homes and lots from what the developers sells. We basically bought a "shell" and have had to bring it up to our personal standards at great time and expense. Do we want to recoup those expenses???? You betcha!!!! In NO way do I think the resales are all overpriced. I hope that all you people out there buying the "good deals" new from TV developers can see through all the hype and realize that you NEVER get "something for nothing"...ie: FREE furniture!!!! Consider the costs of putting in even DECENT landscaping instead of the cheap weedy crap that comes with the house, blinds on the windows, fans, painting all of the concrete (ALL concrete in TV is stained when you buy and gets worse over time...no warranty covers concrete), flooring & upgrading in your lanai (or you'll be overrun by bugs and geckos taking up residence there...and INSIDE your house when you leave the doors open), painting (white is sooooo blah and institutionalizing), upgrading all the flooring in the house to something that doesn't fall apart, re-caulking any area where water is (ie: all ceramic areas)....I think we're up to the $10K + now that we've put into our house since moving in. NOW...consider the BONDS on the new homes. I'll bet you dollars to donuts that any of you who have recently purchased a NEW home in TV or are about to are looking at a bond in the neighborhood of $28,000.00 !!!! Right???? The bond on homes built and sold in 2005 is in the neighborhood of $10,000.00 to $12,000.00. NOW we're up to about a $24,000.00 difference in price from new to 2 year old pre-owned AND that's NOT putting a price on the hassle of all the calls to Home Warranty and Contractors to come and do the work...and then come back and re-do the work...and then you call again and get a message that says, "...I'm sorry, the number you have dialed has been disconnected..." WHOA, surprise, surprise, the guy has gone out of business and all your expensive, long awaited for, new landscaping is dying. Oh well, back to the phone and checkbook???? No, I don't think so.

To ALL future Village Homeowners: THINK about ALL your options and ALL your expenses, BEFORE you buy new. Remember the ole "Caveat Emptor" or in plain English..."Buyer Beware".

I'm definitely NOT saying that The Villages is not a WONDERFUL place to live, because it is...I'm just saying that what all the Realtors and Ads say is true..."You are buying a LIFESTYLE". In order to provide you with all the amenities of that "Lifestyle" something has to give and that "something" is a quality home. Soooooo check out a previously owned home and buy peace of mind and your free time and quality upgrades from a previous homeowner who loved living here and who has already put in all the quality and upgrades that you're going to have to put in within the first few months plus, you won't have to put up with all the hassles of getting it done.

Are pre-owned homes overpriced????? No, I don't think so...in the whole scheme of things...THEY are the TRUE BARGAINS here. Consider that you're getting all the extra "owner installed quality & upgrades", and the fact that a lot of them even come furnished (free furniture?) AND with a golf cart (free golf cart?)...now THAT'S a BARGAIN!!!!!!!

AND...don't forget that in the case of "most" previously-owned homes...they are previously-LOVED homes. Some of us are selling because of reasons beyond our control...like ailing & dying family members (parents) up north that we have to go back to and take care of. We put the extra money and care into our homes thinking we were going to be "Frogs" (here till we croaked!!!) We're not out to make a $$ killing...those were the people who sold & moved OUT 2 years ago...we're just trying to recoup what we've spent (MINUS the sales commission even).

God Bless and Good Luck to all of you.

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I plan to look at resales, but all things equal (and adjusting for upgrades and bonds) I'd take a new home. That way I can personalize it to my tastes, not someone elses, plus the roof and HVAC are not already a few years old. New CBS villas are about $180 (plus bond) while resales are seldom below $200K (and while a lower bond, most still have some bond due).
The fact that the realtor wants 6% doesn't mean that's included in the resale markup.

I think the resales are somewhat overpriced. Regardless, it's a business decision to me, my wife can handle the emotional decision part of it all. Just my opinions from the buyer side.

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Once a Bond is set for a particular area of new homes, it cannot be raised by anyone. You're guaranteed that in your closing documents. However, be aware that as each new area is developed into Villages...their bond is higher than the last Village built....so, in the long run...I guess we're all paying for the developer's financing charges, eh??? In less than 2 years, the bonds on the newest homes are more than double what we paid for the same house. I can assure you the Morse Family will never lose money on anything they do here. Everything they do or finance will be made up for in CDD Bonds. Amenity Fees are a pittance and may go up $5.00 or so a year, but that money is just a tiny drop of water in a big ocean...if you get my drift.

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What I have noticed in some of the resales here in TV is the homes do not have any, or if any, very little in upgrades and yet they are listed for $50,000 to $75,000 over what they originally paid a few years ago. From what people have previously quoted for what they paid for upgrades on their landscaping, in their lanai's, etc. it would be more advantageous to purchase a newly constructed home and do your own upgrades. The only drawback is the exorbitant bond cost in the newer areas.

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Thats starting to make some sense - so when the developer issues $60million dollars in bonds to put in infrastructure (that obligates the property owners) but the developer is only able to sell a portion of the lots needed to pay the bonds so each of the existing properties much pay additional amounts to cover the complete project which then is a higher price than previous areas that were completed. Obviously the unsold lots have no money coming in to pay their share of the bond obligation. Is this how it works??? If not who is going to pay for the unsold lots portion of the bonds???

Re: JKP Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

JKP, while I completely understand your explanation on reasons to purchase a resale from the sellers stand point. You need to understand it from the buyers stand point. I will give you a good for instance.
My home in Calif would have gone for $479,000 just 9 months ago. It has plenty of amenities and upgrades. If I wanted to sell it today maybe I could get $420,000.
The problem I see with the resales I had been considering is none of you seem to have accounted for the fact that your home is just not worth what you are asking. Regardless of what you put into it since you bought it, it is now worth 10% to 15% less as are all the resales on the VLS listings sure many of the show as being in escrow but, I assure you not at the listing price as shown. A lot of you make issue of the furniture your including but, everyones taste is different. On a bunch of the resales I was considering it would be an expense to clear out the furniture not to our liking. So while you consider it a benefit,some people find it a detriment.
Bottom line right now resales are over priced in the villages.
larry

Re: Real Estate Prices with excess supply
 

I agree that many of the resales are overpriced. But some aren't - consider the designers that have extra large lots, or back up to a privacy wall. These will always command a premium. Also, each buyer's needs vary. We have friends who bought a CBS villa that was furnished, because they really liked the interior decorating, and didnt' want to have to go thru and do the decorating on their own. Its very time consuming. If you can wait 3-5 years for your landscaping to grow, and feel you can do your own interior decorating, either add your own extras or hire someone to come in and do them, in many cases you will save money by buying new. That said, not everyone wants to spend the time or hassle doing that.

The other nice thing about pre-owneds, is that you know right off what your neighborhood is like. You know if your house is surrounded by houses with barking dogs, or if there are noisy neighbors on one side, if you have a good neighborhood social group, etc... You're taking a chance buying new.

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No such thing in a market economy as 'overpriced'. If anything is actually not priced correctly it will adjust in a free market. You may think that new is more realistically priced at this time BUT if the resales are moving then they must be marked correctly. If they are not moving then they will be adjusted.

It's nothing new and it certainly isn't just applicable to TV. The one thing that TV has going for it from a price point is that it is still a rapidly growing community (at least when compared to most of the country).

As always in Real Estate it's LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!

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Diskman,
You tell it like it is from a buyer's perspective and I applaud you. Many villagers got caught up in the housing boom and bought homes hoping to flip them for a profit. When I visited TV last summer a man at the table next to us was telling a friend he bought 10 patio villas and was going to make a "killing". He'd be making the killing off my hard earned $$$ if I were the buyer. Now that the tables are reversed sellers may need to forget what they paid for the house and accept what the market bears. As for me, I will not buy in TV till the current prices drop another 10 -15% on the lower end homes and up to 25% on the golf front or premier homes.

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I hope that you are right Poromo since I haven't bought yet.

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I wish you luck, poromo, waiting for those price falls. Since hardly a day passes that I don't see one or two moving vans unloading around here, I doubt such a decline in prices will ever be seen here. Yes, homes are moving slower than previous years here at TV but unlike most areas of the country the homes are still moving at a pretty good clip.