Apartments...Why?? Apartments...Why?? - Page 6 - Talk of The Villages Florida

Apartments...Why??

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  #76  
Old 08-25-2020, 04:48 PM
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Just know 1. I did not say that I researched the subject into oblivion. The button I hit was QUICK reply, not University Dissertation! I do that sometimes. Next time I will call you and say, "Mama may I" first!

But, thanks for the link, I WILL read it.
It is a fact that has been out there for a couple decades or more that the retirement communities in Costa Rica are walled and guarded enclaves due to the criminal element targeting the retirees. Residents are advised to only leave the community during the day and even then be extremely careful.
  #77  
Old 08-25-2020, 05:39 PM
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In no way did I see this informed opinion as a complaint. It came out of past experience and knowledge of how businesses work.
I totally agree. The OP, Kahuna, is not complaining at all. Kahuna is simply submitting an educated theory to be considered as to why the sudden seemingly change in the developers business model, with a focus on high density rental apartment complexes.

I would highly recommend everyone read the book Freakonomics (a photo of the book is attached). The book explains how peoples behavior can be easily explained by taking a close look at their incentives or motivations. Kahuna's theory that the developer might be setting up their enterprise for an eventual exist strategy (their possible motive), which would explain the recently observed events.

Thanks again Kahuna for the very thought provoking post/thread.
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  #78  
Old 08-25-2020, 06:06 PM
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I totally agree. The OP, Kahuna, is not complaining at all. Kahuna is simply submitting an educated theory to be considered as to why the sudden seemingly change in the developers business model, with a focus on high density rental apartment complexes.
So a few hundred apartment units (compared to 50,000 new homes being built south of 44) is a "focus on high density rental apartment complexes?" Or is it just another option for people who may prefer it?
  #79  
Old 08-25-2020, 06:09 PM
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well, yeah. one day i may not want the house anymore. i wouldn't mind living on the square, i grew up in a city, it has charm if you like that sort of thing
  #80  
Old 08-25-2020, 06:52 PM
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There was a very successful, respected businessman. For years his company was successful. He did very well for his investors year after year. Donated to charities. People loved him and put their trust in him with their money. Then some people started criticizing him, obviously an organized attempt from a few jealous individuals to discredit their idol. They must be anti capitalist his admirers thought. Then one day an article appears in the paper saying their idol might be a false god. The paper was the Wall Street Journal and the businessman was Bernie Madoff. The rest of the story is history. I am not saying the Morse’s are doing anything wrong but when it is my money I am skeptical and not trusting. As Ronald Reagan said “trust but verify”.
  #81  
Old 08-25-2020, 08:37 PM
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There is a lot of gloom and doom discussed here. While we all have to look out for ourselves, conspiracy ideas and theories seem to abound. Hacienda Hills and Katie Belles ceased to make a profit. Hacienda Hills building needed a very expensive upgrade if it was to exist. But in the four years we have been here, we were never impressed with it as a restaurant. Never ate there for dinner. Ate there numerous times for lunch after golf, but service was slow. Limited menu. Never crowded. Numerous changes of management. No one of us knows the number of units, number or size of buildings. We just know there will be age restricted apartments, amenities open for everyone, and a restaurant. Why not wait and see what the plans are before becoming so negative towards the developer? Likewise Katie Belles; never went there. Any business has to be supported by customers to stay in business. Restaurants can not survive on old people wanting a fine dining experience but only willing to pay fast food prices.

The comments about numerous commercial properties being vacant cause me to wonder where these tremendous number of vacancies exist. Brownwood has a few, but no developer would be building as many new commercial properties there if he and his advisers did not believe they would be able to fill them. The Lofts will help provide customers as well as the southern area via Megisson Road and the MMP over Brownwood Bridge. I am not familiar with all commercial areas but Colony, Pinellas, Lake Deaton Plaza, Lake Sumter Landing do not have many vacancies. The developer would rather have a tenant at “reasonable” rent than to have a retail site vacant. The developer can not just open a business. His retail rents have to be competitive with the retail rents in the local area. A prospective tenant has to decide the local population will support his business; will these retirees part with their hard earned money to support my business?

The differences we see in the business model may have as much to do with the people who will be retiring in the next few years having different preferences in living style and in retirement activities than those of us who have retired in the past 15 to 20 years. I personally like the recently shared developer’s vision for the Southern area. The medical center complex, the added charter school campus, the sports complex, the family living area for individuals who work in the Villages, as well as the conventional age restricted single family homes villages.

I often wonder if the Covid19 pandemic with its social distancing, masks, restricted activities, lack of entertainment at the squares, etc have affected all of our minds in a negative way. Conspiracy theories abound. So many have become exceedingly negative. I believe things will return to normal; don’t know when, but we will try to keep positive and choose to be happy with what we can do and not focus on what we cannot.
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  #82  
Old 08-25-2020, 08:49 PM
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There is a lot of gloom and doom discussed here. While we all have to look out for ourselves, conspiracy ideas and theories seem to abound. Hacienda Hills and Katie Belles ceased to make a profit. Hacienda Hills building needed a very expensive upgrade if it was to exist. But in the four years we have been here, we were never impressed with it as a restaurant. Never ate there for dinner. Ate there numerous times for lunch after golf, but service was slow. Limited menu. Never crowded. Numerous changes of management. No one of us knows the number of units, number or size of buildings. We just know there will be age restricted apartments, amenities open for everyone, and a restaurant. Why not wait and see what the plans are before becoming so negative towards the developer? Likewise Katie Belles; never went there. Any business has to be supported by customers to stay in business. Restaurants can not survive on old people wanting a fine dining experience but only willing to pay fast food prices.

The comments about numerous commercial properties being vacant cause me to wonder where these tremendous number of vacancies exist. Brownwood has a few, but no developer would be building as many new commercial properties there if he and his advisers did not believe they would be able to fill them. The Lofts will help provide customers as well as the southern area via Megisson Road and the MMP over Brownwood Bridge. I am not familiar with all commercial areas but Colony, Pinellas, Lake Deaton Plaza, Lake Sumter Landing do not have many vacancies. The developer would rather have a tenant at “reasonable” rent than to have a retail site vacant. The developer can not just open a business. His retail rents have to be competitive with the retail rents in the local area. A prospective tenant has to decide the local population will support his business; will these retirees part with their hard earned money to support my business?

The differences we see in the business model may have as much to do with the people who will be retiring in the next few years having different preferences in living style and in retirement activities than those of us who have retired in the past 15 to 20 years. I personally like the recently shared developer’s vision for the Southern area. The medical center complex, the added charter school campus, the sports complex, the family living area for individuals who work in the Villages, as well as the conventional age restricted single family homes villages.

I often wonder if the Covid19 pandemic with its social distancing, masks, restricted activities, lack of entertainment at the squares, etc have affected all of our minds in a negative way. Conspiracy theories abound. So many have become exceedingly negative. I believe things will return to normal; don’t know when, but we will try to keep positive and choose to be happy with what we can do and not focus on what we cannot.
Nominated for Best Post of the Topic. Good job !!!!!
  #83  
Old 08-25-2020, 08:53 PM
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I have lived here for 19 years and have heard all this for 19 years. It's nothing new, yet it has not happened yet and probably never will. When we moved here we were told there would never be any assisted living facilities here, that residents would move back home when they needed help to live, well guess what, when the developer saw a need 100,000 people later who didn't want to leave here as they got older, they changed their minds and built assisted living facilities within the Villages. Good for the developer and good for us who live here and don't want to leave. This benefits them and us. Now the developer is building apartments for those who do not want to maintain a home, but are not ready for assisted living. Again, a move that benefits us and the developer. People were up in arms when the developer started building family sections. This was to draw top doctors, dentists and other professionals to this area for the residents. When we moved here there were very few doctors here and they were terrible, you had to go to Ocala, Leesburg or farther to find a decent doctor or dentist, now because of great family housing and a top notch school you have many good doctors and dentists to choose from. People complain about a few empty store fronts, when we moved here there was only Spanish Springs, nothing else, you had to drive to Ocala or Leesburg for shopping, no Lowes, no Home depot, nothing. The developer has a 20 to 30 year plan, always did and it keeps extending out. So many posters have only lived here a short time and don't have a real idea of the changes here in the Villages and how they have profited the developer AND the residents. As far as the family, they have always seen to it that their children are educated in ways that will further the family business. Those who say they are greedy are crying about some slight they see that doesn't fulfill their own wishes. Through the 19 years I've lived here I see all the things we now have that enrich our lives, all done by the family to enrich their pockets which have also enriched our lives. The sky is not falling, enjoy the years you have left.
  #84  
Old 08-26-2020, 06:27 AM
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I have been a non-invested observer of TV since 2008, when good friends bought a place in Largo. The Mrs. and I have been down many times visiting, and have rented for the snowbird season the last two winters, and will be renting for 6 months this coming winter. We have the dough to buy, and are keeping our eyes open for a place that might suit us, although our rental arrangement is pretty sweet. I explain all of that because I think it qualifies me as knowledgable about TV, but without the biases inherent when one has invested a lot of money in a hopeful outcome.
What I've noticed over the years that concerns me the most about actually buying a place is the increased traffic on the pickleball courts and the executive golf courses. I don't see how increasing the density of the population is going to help that dynamic at all. That concerns me.
I wouldn't be buying a place with the idea that I need the property value to appreciate in order to make it work. I'm too old to be worried about that. But, I would be making an investment in a "lifestyle" that includes golf, and pickle, and the pools, and a few other incidental activities, and I'm not sure I would want to be anchored in a place where the developers/owners have so much control over how the community will evolve over the next 15 years. As a somewhat distanced observer, I think they've demonstrated well enough that their agenda is making as much money as they can, and if it's at the expense of the existing population who bought into a marketing promise 10 or 15 years prior, well, too bad for them.
  #85  
Old 08-26-2020, 06:31 AM
hardwick2112@yahoo.com hardwick2112@yahoo.com is offline
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Agree with your statement. Also, it is apparent the billionaire siblings have zero confidence in their siblings taking reign of The Villages to continue to make it special. That is what happens when you give 30-somethings a lofty title and responsibility without 1) earning it, 2) lack of experience and 3) intelligence to carry the vision forward.
  #86  
Old 08-26-2020, 07:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna View Post
I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.
Very insightful. When I first moved to The Villages in 2008, one of the big selling points was that The development would cap out between 90 and 100 thousand people. They talked about stopping at 466A then that became SR 42. Although large it was still quaint in many ways. You had the Katie Belle’s in Spanish Springs along with the Cattle Barons up above it. In Lake Sumpter you had the Deli, I don’t remember the name, where Panera is now. Both of these places were always packed and you could not get into Katie Belles without a reservation and you had to be a Villages resident to get in. It was something special. The developer then decided to get out of the restaurant business and the Deli went followed by the Cattle Barons and that is what caused Katie Belle’s to go down hill. Back then even in high season you could go out to dinner at the country clubs and have maybe a 20 to thirty minute wait. Now, on a Friday or Saturday night it’s 1 to 2 hours. So what is next? Is Glenview next to go if it needs repairs as is the excuse for tearing down Hacienda for more apartments. My point is The Villages is dense enough as it is without adding more density. In my working days I use to keep a saying on my office wall. It said “The market place is littered with the remains of companies that deviated from what they were good at.” A good thing for the developers to think about.
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Old 08-26-2020, 08:03 AM
LowOnCash LowOnCash is offline
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If the residents of the Village do not stand up to the Village Corporate Group, what you have now will be gone forever. As far as they are concerned you are nothinjg but a Vin number and $ signs. The Apartments will destroy the values of the Villages for ever. Demand that they be stopped, Pickett the construction sites, get involved, they are taking over what you worked your life for.

Get Involved they will not stop without Opposition!

Stay Safe Mike
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Old 08-26-2020, 08:37 AM
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Very good point. I agree, but unfortunately there’s nothing we as homeowners can do about it.
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Old 08-26-2020, 08:44 AM
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The question is how does this impact our property values? As a former realtor and real estate investor I suspect it will significantly decrease value over time.
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Old 08-26-2020, 08:57 AM
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I think you are RIGHT ON!
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