[wamley]

Don't be surprised if more golf course are changed into housing or apartments. Loss of golf activity for many reasons will prompt, IMO. more golf course closings or reduction in gold course holes within the Villages from 27 hole course down graded to 18 holes and apartments erected. The IPO analysis by VILLAGES KAHUNA is right on.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by wamley

IMO. more golf course closings or reduction in gold course holes within the Villages from 27 hole course down graded to 18 holes and apartments erected.

Which golf courses have closed?

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by orlandoinkeywest@yahoo.co

The question is how does this impact our property values? As a former realtor and real estate investor I suspect it will significantly decrease value over time.

If you could also predict the stock market, you'd have everything covered.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

If you could also predict the stock market, you'd have everything covered.

do you think that increasing population density will increase pressure on shared amenities?

[Eg_cruz]

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna

I’ve thought about why this latest generation of the Morses has purposely and callously begin to change the character The Villages, and the relationship with residents it has taken decades to develop. The construction of densely-sited apartments at Brownwood were first. Then the destruction of Hacienda Hills CC and announcement of another large high-rise building, and recently plans to build apartments in the recently-closed resident’s club, Katie Belles. I believe this is just the beginning. I think I know why.

These actions are what is necessary if the Morse family has plans to sell their ownership interests in The Villages or take the business public. The Villages is profitable, no doubt. But it doesn’t have enough consistent, repeatable earnings to maximize it’s value in such a sale. Repeatable less risky earning flows are what financial buyers and the capital markets use to value businesses.

Businesses are valued as a multiple of earnings, whether sold to a single financial buyer, sale to a public company, or as an IPO on the stock market. Yes, The Villages has some repeatable, consistent and growing sources of earnings—rent from all the shopping centers and the town squares retail, the bank, the championship golf clubs. But just not enough repeatable income to optimize it’s value, which is how the capital markets will value The Villages.

Without a stronger source of repeatable, growing income The Villages as a business will be valued as just another home builder. Profits are great so long as the owners keep buying land, building houses, and selling them to new residents. But if they ever stop that cycle, earnings drop dramatically. The capital markets are forward-looking and will ascribe a much lower multiple to the home-building part of the business than to the parts that will be ongoing if the three Morse siblings who currently own The Villages leave or retire. To increase the value of the Morse ownership more retail, apartments, or somehow monetizing their ownership of everything in The Villages not owned by residents will be necessary.

The three Morse siblings are each billionaires individually, according to Forbes magazine. But it’s all “paper wealth”. If they sold their ownership of The Villages, it would be worth nowhere near that amount. They’ve reached an age when they are almost certainly considering retirement. And among the dozens of Morse-Schwartz grandchildren and great grandchildren, there are only a few as talented as the siblings who want to work as hard as they did, or work for The Villages at all.

Selling the business is the only way the siblings can monetize their long, successful careers and retire. And to increase it’s value the business needs more repeatable, less risky sources of earnings. Unfortunately, achieving those objectives will probably require a change in the relationship and trust that tens of thousands of people who have “bought the dream” have placed in them.

I don’t have any inside information, but I did retire after a long career as an investment banker. I don’t want to be a Debby Downer, but what I see are owners that are preparing to “cash out”. It won’t happen overnight, it might take a few years, but don’t think we’ve seen the end of efforts to monetize their ownership by the Morse siblings. There will certainly be more apartments, such as in the new “non-resident” section adjacent to the new school complex and who knows what in the recently-announced 400 acre medical business section in the southern part of The Villages. I think that some of the amenities that have been free until now, will carry a cost in the future.

If you see something differently, post your feelings here. All I’m saying is that we should all remain aware of what’s happening that might change “Florida’s Friendliest Hometown”.

Or it could be simple. Most single women don’t want the burden of a home and want to stay in The Villages.
Had a lot of clients leave the area for that reason.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by Laker14

do you think that increasing population density will increase pressure on shared amenities?

Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.

Foe example, Hacienda pool was Priority only. The new one will be open to all residents. Same as The Lofts.

[NoMoSno]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

Nope, because they are also adding more and more amenities as population grows.

Foe example, Hacienda pool was Priority only. The new one will be open to all residents. Same as The Lofts.

Do you think it will add more traffic to the already overcrowded single lane Morse Blvd. as well as the dangerous cart path that co-mingles with that traffic?

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by NoMoSno

Do you think it will add more traffic to the already overcrowded single lane Morse Blvd. as well as the dangerous cart path that co-mingles with that traffic?

Maybe, but so would a Costco or Trader Joe's which thousands of residents have been begging for. Progress happens.

[NoMoSno]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

Maybe, but so would a Costco or Trader Joe's which thousands of residents have been begging for. Progress happens.

Along with progress comes upgrading existing infrastructure to accommodate the growth.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by NoMoSno

Along with progress comes upgrading existing infrastructure to accommodate the growth.

How do you know that is not in the master plan? Not everything is public knowkledge, nor should it be when it's a private business.

[NoMoSno]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

How do you know that is not in the master plan? Not everything is public knowkledge, nor should it be when it's a private business.

Widening Morse Blvd. and creating a proper MMP would be a major positive announcement I would think TV would want to share....but maybe not.
I suspect the county will only require a traffic light to be added.
Wonder how many more GC fatalities/accidents it will take before improvements are made?

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by NoMoSno

Widening Morse Blvd. and creating a proper MMP would be a major positive announcement I would think TV would want to share....but maybe not.
I suspect the county will only require a traffic light to be added.
Wonder how many more GC fatalities/accidents it will take before improvements are made?

So you're saying you don't know?

[NoMoSno]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

So you're saying you don't know?

My words were "I suspect"
Figure it out.

[Old Bob]

Originally Posted by Villagesgal

I have lived here for 19 years and have heard all this for 19 years. It's nothing new, yet it has not happened yet and probably never will. When we moved here we were told there would never be any assisted living facilities here, that residents would move back home when they needed help to live, well guess what, when the developer saw a need 100,000 people later who didn't want to leave here as they got older, they changed their minds and built assisted living facilities within the Villages. Good for the developer and good for us who live here and don't want to leave. This benefits them and us. Now the developer is building apartments for those who do not want to maintain a home, but are not ready for assisted living. Again, a move that benefits us and the developer. People were up in arms when the developer started building family sections. This was to draw top doctors, dentists and other professionals to this area for the residents. When we moved here there were very few doctors here and they were terrible, you had to go to Ocala, Leesburg or farther to find a decent doctor or dentist, now because of great family housing and a top notch school you have many good doctors and dentists to choose from. People complain about a few empty store fronts, when we moved here there was only Spanish Springs, nothing else, you had to drive to Ocala or Leesburg for shopping, no Lowes, no Home depot, nothing. The developer has a 20 to 30 year plan, always did and it keeps extending out. So many posters have only lived here a short time and don't have a real idea of the changes here in the Villages and how they have profited the developer AND the residents. As far as the family, they have always seen to it that their children are educated in ways that will further the family business. Those who say they are greedy are crying about some slight they see that doesn't fulfill their own wishes. Through the 19 years I've lived here I see all the things we now have that enrich our lives, all done by the family to enrich their pockets which have also enriched our lives. The sky is not falling, enjoy the years you have left.

I agree with Villagesgal. I have also lived here 19 years, and have seen all of the things she mentioned, and I agree with her completely.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Laker14

I have been a non-invested observer of TV since 2008, when good friends bought a place in Largo. The Mrs. and I have been down many times visiting, and have rented for the snowbird season the last two winters, and will be renting for 6 months this coming winter. We have the dough to buy, and are keeping our eyes open for a place that might suit us, although our rental arrangement is pretty sweet. I explain all of that because I think it qualifies me as knowledgable about TV, but without the biases inherent when one has invested a lot of money in a hopeful outcome.
What I've noticed over the years that concerns me the most about actually buying a place is the increased traffic on the pickleball courts and the executive golf courses. I don't see how increasing the density of the population is going to help that dynamic at all. That concerns me.
I wouldn't be buying a place with the idea that I need the property value to appreciate in order to make it work. I'm too old to be worried about that. But, I would be making an investment in a "lifestyle" that includes golf, and pickle, and the pools, and a few other incidental activities, and I'm not sure I would want to be anchored in a place where the developers/owners have so much control over how the community will evolve over the next 15 years. As a somewhat distanced observer, I think they've demonstrated well enough that their agenda is making as much money as they can, and if it's at the expense of the existing population who bought into a marketing promise 10 or 15 years prior, well, too bad for them.

That sounds about right from a neutral observer. Population density can cause traffic problems. It can decreased quality of life. It can ruin the intangible, small town, friendly neighborhood aspects of TV Land.