[DrMack]

Originally Posted by Justputt

IMO, the only generalizations worth anything are local markets.

Very local, you can’t even group the Villages as a whole. South of the turnpike premium lots are a whole different market than Dabney. We got that market update from the builder, and understand they undercut most pre existing homes to sell new ones. But from what I hear, they have less upgrades too. They are just trying to get buyers.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by DrMack

We had a neighbor that had sold their home about a month ago. The buyer backed out last Friday. IMO it isn’t the time to sell a home.

We may be seeing the beginning of a deep recession.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

We may be seeing the beginning of a deep recession.

or not

[Normal]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

We may be seeing the beginning of a deep recession.

The jobs report may be enough of a jab to get the Fed to at least do a.25 cut on the 18th, but inflation still isn’t under control. Even if we had a cut, I’m not sure our market would see any benefit from it.

[Runway48]

There appears to be a normalization of housing prices. The average cost of housing over the past 30 years has increase around 4.5% but this is an average and includes some wild upwards and downwards swings. We are just exiting a wild upward swing that occurred during the COVID years where sellers were seeking and getting annual increases of 20-40%. Housing in the villages have a high turnover rate. Those who bought in the last 5 years likely paid inflated prices relative to the average and the seller in a buyer's market is always the last to accept the trend. I have seen homeowners on this site talk as though the 20% annual increase is a reasonable expectation. I have also recently seen sellers lower their asking price by over $200K as reality sets in. If you bought recently, you will probably have to wait a while until you can expect to sell it for more than you paid.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by Marmaduke

Exactly! We have homes on our street and in our neighborhood that are already listed too low, and are dropping by 40 grand at the influence of their realtors.
The skuttlebutt from neighbors
mock them as being crazy for expecting to find a buyer "at that price."
Granted, it's a Buyers Market, but people are panicing and dropping the price, (instead of by $1000), by 35 and 40 grand, hurting our values, maybe for years to come.

"Hurting values"?

Or just the market readjusting to some ridiculously high prices that were an anomaly in the first place?

Case in point: our home, if one went by the selling prices of similar homes in this and adjacent Villages, appreciated in value something like $130,000 in our first two months here. Good sales tactics and people in a virtual panic to get in here while the getting was good. But I didn't congratulate myself on making some kind of incredibly good deal because we got in under the wire before prices went berserk.

We've been in markets like that before, and if there is one thing we learned it is timing rather than value that is important. Knowing how to ride the roller coaster is what matters.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by DrMack

Very local, you can’t even group the Villages as a whole. South of the turnpike premium lots are a whole different market than Dabney. We got that market update from the builder, and understand they undercut most pre existing homes to sell new ones. But from what I hear, they have less upgrades too. They are just trying to get buyers.

I don’t know of any who group the real estate of the Villages of Florida as “ Villages as a whole”. The weekly video done by David segregates it best. There are four sections: The Northern Section or all homes north of 466 and south of 42. There are Between the 6’s, or the homes between 466 and 466 A. There is the section between 466A and 44. Finally, there is the South with all homes south of 44. Even Goldwingnut has adapted the terms in some of his videos and delivers distinctions between the areas.

We live south of 44 and I can tell you houses do sell, but mostly they sell as view lots or are underpriced compared to the rest of the market. The homes that are priced a 100 to 150 k over the price paid 3 years ago are sitting like crickets chirping in the night air.

[merrymini]

Zillow is not a good indicator of house value. There is too much they do not know about any individual home. Your own research is always the best.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by Runway48

The average cost of housing over the past 30 years has increase around 4.5%

The last 75-100 years, has averaged about 4.5%/year. Some years more, some years less.

[shut the front door]

Originally Posted by HappyTraveler

Good post. I will add that if a buyer is paying cash and they know how to use Zillow, Realtor.com, Redfin, etc. to dig into the specifics of comparable properties that have sold in the last 6 months - they don't need to spend the $$ on an appraisal.

I have found appraisers to be mediocre at determining value and some agents, the same, at determining appropriate pricing. It is not difficult to find-out both yourself with some adequate research and analysis. Save yourself $400 or $500.

Zillow appraisals are usually about 30% off. Unfortunately, that's either way.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by shut the front door

Zillow appraisals are usually about 30% off. Unfortunately, that's either way.

That's ridiculous.

Zillow & Redfin maintain an accuracy of +/- 2% for on-the-market homes. About 8% for off-market homes.

I'm not saying it's never happened, but I've never seen a Zillow or Redfin estimate be more than 10% off, unless it was a very unusual home or location.

In a market like The Villages, Zillow/Redfin is almost always going to be within about 5% on off-market, closer for homes on-market.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

IMO Can demand all you want but seller don’t have Agree or take offer, which could so of that percentage. Also Desperately wanting to get rid of property IMO usually when get property under valued. Good example neighbor died and kids wanted rid of property fast so they unvalued it 40K to sell quickly. Which it did in less than month. What does this do? decrease value of homes in that area.

Originally Posted by Marmaduke

Exactly! We have homes on our street and in our neighborhood that are already listed too low, and are dropping by 40 grand at the influence of their realtors.
The skuttlebutt from neighbors
mock them as being crazy for expecting to find a buyer "at that price."
Granted, it's a Buyers Market, but people are panicing and dropping the price, (instead of by $1000), by 35 and 40 grand, hurting our values, maybe for years to come.

I think this dynamic is a constant in a 55+. (i.e. community made up largely of old people) development, and is probably as accurate a measure of whether the market is a "buyer's" or "seller's" market.
When people die and leave their estate with a home in TV, you get an instant read on the marketability of that property. The heirs don't want to hold the property and pay the maintenance costs of ownership, so they want to sell ASAP. Hence, they learn immediately the real value, in that moment, of the property.

In the Spring of 2021 they'd have had no problem fetching a good price. Lots of buyers looking for homes in TV, relative to the supply.
Now, in the summer of 2025 it's a different world.

The real value isn't determined by someone putting their home on the market with no urgency to sell. It is determined by the number of people with property who need to sell, or desire to sell quickly. That's "today's" market.

[Bay Kid]

Originally Posted by merrymini

Zillow is not a good indicator of house value. There is too much they do not know about any individual home. Your own research is always the best.

So true. Every home is different.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by merrymini

Zillow is not a good indicator of house value. There is too much they do not know about any individual home. Your own research is always the best.

Zillow is a math algorithm, it will have its flaws due to limitations of publicly available data, and the data attribution, along with the significance to the price. However, in a place like TV where the houses are very similar, and there are many sales occurring, the algorithm is very good at predicting FMV, fair market value. However, that may not reflect the actual sale price due to the seller's desire for speed or for value, or for a house attribute not available for the algorithm.

I have seen Zillow off by a large margin 50% due to the condition of the house. I have seen RE appraisers interpret nearest comparables as the closest in distance, using a two mile radius, yielding a high valuation. I have seen real estate agents want to list low to be sure to get people into the house. I have seen bank R/E appraisers approve sales prices that are obviously too high, but without damning information, agree with the accepted bid to the sellers asking price.

There are humans, emotions, incomes and math involved, and that mix seldom yields unanimous agreement at any time, and is reasonable for a starting point most times, and egregious in places where the data is sparse.

I had to build my own pricing model similar to Zillow to be satisfied with the FMV of my parent's house due to 100K differences in FMV estimates. My model came in high for a known data/math reason, but it also came in at 85% explanatory, with 15% unexplained with the public/nonpublic data. The model was good enough to convince a buyer's R/E agent to pay 10K less that the model's FMV, which i took without hesitation. . . and the buyer's agent had access to the model output as one of the two selling real estate agents I used in my selection process.

its your money, spend it wisely if you don't have alot of it.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Zillow is a math algorithm, it will have its flaws due to limitations of publicly available data, and the data attribution, along with the significance to the price. However, in a place like TV where the houses are very similar, and there are many sales occurring, the algorithm is very good at predicting FMV, fair market value. However, that may not reflect the actual sale price due to the seller's desire for speed or for value, or for a house attribute not available for the algorithm.

I have seen Zillow off by a large margin 50% due to the condition of the house. I have seen RE appraisers interpret nearest comparables as the closest in distance, using a two mile radius, yielding a high valuation. I have seen real estate agents want to list low to be sure to get people into the house. I have seen bank R/E appraisers approve sales prices that are obviously too high, but without damning information, agree with the accepted bid to the sellers asking price.

There are humans, emotions, incomes and math involved, and that mix seldom yields unanimous agreement at any time, and is reasonable for a starting point most times, and egregious in places where the data is sparse.

I had to build my own pricing model similar to Zillow to be satisfied with the FMV of my parent's house due to 100K differences in FMV estimates. My model came in high for a known data/math reason, but it also came in at 85% explanatory, with 15% unexplained with the public/nonpublic data. The model was good enough to convince a buyer's R/E agent to pay 10K less that the model's FMV, which i took without hesitation. . . and the buyer's agent had access to the model output as one of the two selling real estate agents I used in my selection process.

its your money, spend it wisely if you don't have alot of it.

I also use algorithms. The matrix may drop differently, but data is only so accurate. One person puts in a pool, or pavers, or skylights, or a fireplace wall. Another changes to all tile flooring and does closets. Maybe the outside landscape is totally redone, none of which is recorded in county clerk records.

There has to be a standard deviation formula for human interaction verses years living in a place; please let me know if you ever come up with that. Maybe the product of medians and division of years? But again, some people do a lot, others just leave the home as the day they moved in. Neighborhoods do seem to dictate improvements though.

I still wholeheartedly endorse contingencies in any contract. Sellers don’t have to sign on the dotted line for them, but buyers have the upper hand because of inventory.