[R20-Matt]

The data doesn’t support much of a drop or even a collapse as many of the YouTubers are claiming. Available inventory is still nearly half of normal levels. (See chart) As interest rates rise, the inventory problem gets worse, folks park on their 3-4% mortgages. This creates big demand for new homes (because no one gives up a mortgage to sell the home)

So this is how its playing out as of now:

1. TV builder is incentivized to increase pricing from one neighborhood to another, as is any new home builder. This ensures new buyers have “equity” and are comfortable buying. Thus pricing is always slightly moving up.

2. New folks moving to TV need buyers for their existing home (up north?) in order to move. With inventory so low, even with mortgage rates high, there is demand due to lack of inventory.

3. Boomer population is in the peak retirement years and therefore needs additional retirement inventory. Also, folks are living longer so retirement age property is in higher demand.

4. Price increases have slowed but prices are still holding above year over year.

5. Existing home sales have slowed a bit (someone mentioned David is in FL youtube which is good data to understand some of the market dynamics in TV)

6. TV new home inventory is finally getting back to where they want it. In speaking with experienced agents here, the last few years have been way too low. TV wants inventory on the ground when snowbirds come in so they can select home, hence the run up in new inventory in the fall.

As of now there is no catalyst to create an inventory recovery. We would need much larger unemployment to create the need to sell property or inability to repay the loans. Until that happens, the volume of home sales will be low, but the pricing likely will hold due to lack of inventory. Maybe a formal recession or job slowdown creates this, but until that happens retiring folks moving to TV should have buyers who want their home simply because they don’t have other options. And likely those retiring will have equity to pay cash or the ability to pay cash and therefore are not as sensitive to interest rates as the average buyer.

[HandyGrandpap]

This property at 6039 Swicord
purchaed 09/21 for $464K
Listed 4 sale 08/23 for $594K
dropped $30 now at $561

Still making a good profit, but not sold yet. Place is empty, suspect would take a lower price as still profit from paid $.

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[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Marketing.

Increase the price 20% over last year, then show a 5% reduction........that's not a sales price drop.

Yes, this is a common pratice in retail. However, it's not the case in the real estate market. Just look at the data. The 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2022 was the height of the market. Average selling price was upper $380-400k. For 2023, it's $365-$385k.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

I'm not sure where everyone is getting this nonsense about home prices dropping like a rock in TV and everywhere else.

I bought a home in TV, less than 2 years ago. I can make a reasonable profit, if I sold it today.

For the last year, I've been looking for another home in TV, as the one I bought, doesn't exactly fit my needs ... there was very limited availability 2 years ago.

I watch the Listings every day, for homes for sale in the geographic area I want in TV. Pound for pound, the houses that I see (& are being sold) are still 10%-15% more than I could have bought them for, 2 years ago.

There was rampant speculation over the last few years, in TV and other locations. That's over with for now. If you did your due diligence when you bought, you're still sitting with normal real estate appreciation of 3%-4% per year.

I don't think "everyone" is saying it's "dropping like a rock". You keep referencing 2 years ago. That's a long time in "market" terms. Being that you watch listings every day, you surely noticed that the last 3 months have been different. Prices are down 5% YOY.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive

It isn't just price that is the determinant. Interest rates have as much or more to do with the slowdown in sales, particularly for those who cannot afford to pay cash for a home here.

Some rough-and-ready examples (courtesy of mortgage calculator website:

$500,000 home, 20% down, interest rate 7.5% = monthly payments of $2796.86
$600,000 home, 20% down, interest rate 2.5% = monthly payments of $1896.58
$700,000 home, 20% down, interest rate 2.5% = monthly payments of $2,212.68

These numbers don't give an exact figure, but are ballpark; they also don't include things like insurance, bond, etc., which raises the monthly costs. But it is a good approximation.

Mortgage rates don't really apply in the Villages, because the majority of homebuyers don't have a mortgage. This is their retirement home - which means they're moving from somewhere else. Supposedly selling their previous home, and using the proceeds to buy their Villages home, and living off their retirement income.

Though there are people who get a mortgage here, it's not the norm.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by Michael 61

There is no way I would have moved here if I had to take out a mortgage.

We couldn't afford the mortgage we had on our house up north, plus the utilities and taxes. We sold for around $60,000 less than we had hoped to get. We were able to pay off the mortgage and put half down on our house in The Villages. We borrowed from family for the rest and paid it back after the first year. We would've been homeless if we hadn't sold the house when it finally sold, almost a year after we put it on the market.

It was a rough last year up there. Not easy being a skilled tradesman in a dead trade, and going to work one day to discover your entire department is being eliminated and you don't qualify for your "full" retirement package.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

Mortgage rates don't really apply in the Villages, because the majority of homebuyers don't have a mortgage. This is their retirement home - which means they're moving from somewhere else. Supposedly selling their previous home, and using the proceeds to buy their Villages home, and living off their retirement income.

Though there are people who get a mortgage here, it's not the norm.

The "majority" don't have a mortgage. Your are CORRECT! However, I bet you didn't think that % was 60%. So, mortgage rates DO apply in TV.

[Robbb]

I maybe in the market for a new home, are you seeing those prices decline? I have not seen that but could be wrong. The problem I see with the new homes is there is nothing around them to go to without a long golf cart ride. Richmond is perfect but its all rentals.

[Toymeister]

Originally Posted by Robbb

Richmond is perfect but its all rentals.

Soon many Richmond homes will be on the secondary market when the speculators can sell them for a profit. Which you can't do in the first twelve months of ownership.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

I think my first mortgage was 12%. OUCH!!!!

Mine was more than that. Some interesting mortgages back then. 30 yr fixed was 16%+/-.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by HandyGrandpap

This property at 6039 Swicord
purchaed 09/21 for $464K
Listed 4 sale 08/23 for $594K
dropped $30 now at $561

Still making a good profit, but not sold yet. Place is empty, suspect would take a lower price as still profit from paid $.

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With the lack of curb appeal, that house is going to be sitting until they make a drastic price reduction. U G L Y !

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by Laker14

Really? I have a comfortable 2.75% mortgage, while I'm making over 5% on CDs in my IRA with money I didn't have to distribute, and pay taxes on, thanks to my mortgage.

I don't feel sad. I don't think you need to feel sad for me either. It's working out OK.

Good moves. Timing this was good. Another reason that cash is king.

[Michael 61]

Originally Posted by Robbb

I maybe in the market for a new home, are you seeing those prices decline? I have not seen that but could be wrong. The problem I see with the new homes is there is nothing around them to go to without a long golf cart ride. Richmond is perfect but its all rentals.

Richmond is not ALL rentals, though higher in rental properties compared to some of the other newer villages, because of it’s proximity to Brownwood - will be interesting to see how many of the investments properties in Richmond will come on the market at the one-year-mark (Nov-Dec-Jan), and may flip to resident-owners.

The developer also is busy moving dirt on the east side of Meggison, and beginning to lay the groundwork for the final construction of Richmond homes (approx 85 new homes) — expect those to sell like “hotcakes”.

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

Mortgage rates don't really apply in the Villages, because the majority of homebuyers don't have a mortgage. This is their retirement home - which means they're moving from somewhere else. Supposedly selling their previous home, and using the proceeds to buy their Villages home, and living off their retirement income.

The problem with that is that many of the people up north who are buying those homes being sold by people moving to Florida are younger people who need sizable mortgages with low down payments.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Toymeister

Soon many Richmond homes will be on the secondary market when the speculators can sell them for a profit. Which you can't do in the first twelve months of ownership.

Many houses were likely bought up by salespeople working for the Villages. They have first dibs and it’s time to turn for profit. Look for more of the same in 115.