[Boomer]

2010?

The 15% dividend and capital gains tax rate is officially due to expire at the end of 2010, I think it is, unless that has changed and I missed it somehow.

If that stays in place as an expiration date, will stocks get dumped in 2010 in order to capture a more favorable tax rate? Or would buyers not be as drawn to stocks because of tax increases if that's the way it goes? How much would that really affect the overall market? For how long? Would it be that big of a deal for the Dow?

But it could be that if individuals do dump stock then for tax purposes, cash could become more available to invest in real estate. Real estate -- that see it, touch it, feel it investment.

Oh, I don't even know why I think about this stuff. It causes me to write inane and even insane posts sometimes. Oh well. I just can't help it.

Boomer

[chuckinca]

Originally Posted by tbsoccer

Six months ago, I was about 85 percent certain that we'd sell our house next spring, rent for a few months in TV until we decided on which village we wanted to live in an what style of home we wanted to buy and then make the move in the fall. We probably would purchase a previously owned home with more mature landscaping and the upgrades that we wanted. However that changed drastically two months ago when the market started its death spiral. Between the erosion in my 401(k) and the latest PBGC rate of 4.75 percent, my retirement nest egg has dropped an equivalent of 2.5 years of salary. Like I told my boss, the only thing making money in my portfolio is me. Hugh lay-offs are announced daily and the pending demise of the American auto industry could put even more pressure on unemployment through out the country. Although housing costs in Pittsburgh have only dropped a slightly, it still looks like our move is going to be delayed by a year or so.

DITTO (working more) !

But my boss is letting me work part-time at home (in TV) 3 months in the winter in '09. Maybe he'll give me a bonus to cover the 30% drop in my 401k and home value (I can dream, can't I).



.

[Russ_Boston]

Originally Posted by Boomer

2010?If that stays in place as an expiration date, will stocks get dumped in 2010 in order to capture a more favorable tax rate?
Boomer

The flaw in that thinking is that by 2010 (I don't need to wait that long) MANY of us will have paper losses and not gains. So unless you need the money and or the loss to offset something else then I don't see a big dump of stocks in 2010 due to expiration of the gains break.

[KayakerNC]

So......maybe buying a home in TV would be a better investment than the stock market?

[tankdvr1950]

economic turn around in mid-2009, or is it early 2010 or the end of 2010...while all the experts chime in with their predictions....no one really knows

our plan was to put the house on the market in early spring 09....sell...rent in TV for a couple of months or so until finding the right new home...buy and close and live the dream....but....the "value" of the property here continues to drop.....$5k in the last 30 days...and there is a limit where selling is just not possible....we can forsee that day coming closer and closer all the time

we are middle class people who are paying our mortgage and were smart enough to not mortgage our life away and have and continue to work hard to live the American Dream...we were smart enough, 18 months ago to bail on the market for our retirement accounts....but the housing crisis, fuel and food and prices increases for everything else, is killing us and its something we have no control over and can do nothing about but sit and watch things get worse and worse and our dream slip farther and farther into the future...if it happens at all

its the middle class, that is suffering the most in all of this...yes...i freely admit that on paper the wealthy have taken a bigger hit proportionally in this economic downturn, as graciegirl stated, but its not the wealthy that have taken the greatest hit.....its the middle class whose dreams are slipping away, that have taken and continue to take the biggest hit.

it was estimated that the 3 car manufacturers spent $20,000 each to fly their corporate jets to their hearings in Washington yesterday......but they are still looking for a $25b loan....in the WSJ today there is a list of the salaries and stock benefits that corporate executives, many of which received bail outs, received this year and many of they have done nothing but take their companies and the US economy into ruin

sorry for venting in this forum...but i am one of the millions of frustrated middle class amaricans who have worked hard, paid my bills, paid my mortgage and want to know...what exactly did i do wrong....and....when is my bail out coming

just one reason why i voted for president they way i did

[JohnN]

tankdvr1950 - amen

[Russ_Boston]

Tank - Vent away - DITTO!

[Sidney Lanier]

I couldn't agree more, tankdvr1950, and if there is to be any change, it's not going to be overnight. It took us years to walk into this mess of a forest, and we cannot expect to walk out of it in months or even a couple of years!

Some of our kids are visiting now, and we took a walk through LSL. They were surprised to see the number of commercial establishments vacant/for rent. We're not here long enough to know if the number of vacancies is typical--or is reflective of our tanked economy.

And it still flabbergasts me that, notwithstanding what might be motivating them, there were people who were still saying recently that the economy is just fine and that we should continue on the same path....

[billethkid]

There have been a couple of restaurant failures...nothing to do with the economy...poor management....poor service.....bad food.
If there is a current economy impact it could be the lack of banking support for small businesses that was prevalent since LSL opened.
A point to consider....while the media only shouts about how bad things are....for example unemployment at an all time high of 7++%...we will never hear them say...HOWEVER...the 92.% % still gainfully employed are alive and well. The increase in foreclosures are up 50% over last year....the total is still less than 5% of the total...but you won't hear about the over 90% that are still paying their mortgages who are gainfully employed!!
The Villages and specifically LSL are doing well and you won't hear or see that in the news.
I understand that if one is unemployed or losing their home things don't look very bright....but they are in the minority!!!!!!!!!!!

When companies are laying off the thousands to cut costs....there are still more than 90% of those companies employment still keeping their jobs.

The media perpetuates the chicken little outlook....keeps folks glued to the TV sets....

BTK

[JohnN]

billiethekid,
I agree the media sensationalizes everything for their own purposes.
However, in my working career in AT&T manufacturing, I used to visit dozens of plants with thousands of people, perhaps 100K people. Today, it's all gone.

Same is true for so many other businesses. Sure, there are wal-mart and pizza hut jobs, but that doesn't raise families and buy homes. We're in a real mess.
I feel the pain and I've been ultra-consevative, and I pray and worry for my kids ( and yours ) and their families. I'll be alright, I've learned to really like beans.

Anyway, like Tankdiver1950, mostly venting. It's a big mess.

[MMC24]

Thank goodness our financial advisor back in Connecticut convinced us to move to bonds when we retired and moved to TV. If we were still in stocks, our "nest egg" would have been a big fat "goose egg" by now.

[Boomer]

Suze Orman was on with Larry King tonight. I have been a fan of her advice for a long time. When Orman was interviewed by the NYT in early 2007, the shocking information that came out of that interview was when she revealed that she invests like a retired grandmother.

Orman's investment style was compared to that of Groucho Marx who, while touring the NYSE, was asked by a trader where he kept his money. When Groucho answered, "Treasury bonds," the trader told him that those would not make him any money. "They will if you have enough of them," Groucho shot back.

Orman took a little heat from the press at the time of the interview. It was like they were booing her for being a bad example because they said average people were supposed to take risk with investments, and sometimes lots of it, huh? Circus Clown Cramer was the darling of the day for a long time.

Well, tonight Suze Orman had a few things to say. First of all, she is greatly concerned about this mess. She said that her guess is that it will be 2010 before real estate begins to stabilize. But she said that for those who can afford to buy, now is not a bad time. She told people to not spend money that they do not have even if it is time for Christmas shopping. She said that the time between now and the inauguration is going to be really rough. And she took some calls from viewers.

Now, all of that is pretty general and obvious, but there was one thing that she said that I found pretty interesting...

Suze Orman said that she went shopping today. She bought a couple of good solid dividend-paying stocks that have been hammered but that will be back. She would not say what she bought, of course. She just said that there are solid companies that have dropped significantly but will return. What has happened is the dividend yields have turned into 9% in some cases. She said what we all know and that is that dividends pay you to wait. You just have to find the right dividend payer.

So anyway, here I sit, going on and on, for whatever reason. But if you want to see the interview, I think Larry King repeats later tonight, maybe midnight, not sure. Suze Orman was on for the first half of the show.

I wonder what Suze bought today. (And she did not comment at all about how long she thought the wait might be.)

Boomer

[Yoda]

We have had a very simple and workable plan. We want to trade houses. When we started visiting TV in Aug we could sell our house and with the proceeds, pay off the mortgage, buy our new Designer home, furnish it and pay for the move. A home for a home. As long as TV property prices are reduced by the same amount that our house has dropped we will be there soon. If not, I guess we will need a plan "B"

[Muncle]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Suze Orman was on with Larry King tonight. I have been a fan of her advice for a long time. When Orman was interviewed by the NYT in early 2007, the shocking information that came out of that interview was when she revealed that she invests like a retired grandmother.

BoomBoom, I've been a big fan of Ric Edelman since I moved back to DC in the mid 90's and started listening to him on WMAL. He has always preached situational investing. As one gets older, closer to retirement, and closer to possibly needing the funds, more and more of one's portfolio should be in safer, more stable, more liquid assets (i.e., CDs, money markets, bonds, etc.) and less in individual stocks that drop just when you need the $$$$. I'd definitely take that as Granny Investing, and like Granny's cooking, it's a lot better than a lot of the new-fangled ideas.

[captain1202]

Have been through a number of previous recessions I think it's fair to say this one is unlike any other for many reasons. I believe the recovery '09 prognostications are unreasonably optimistic.

1) The housing meltdown is still gaining momentum and is no where near bottoming out.

2) Consumers are retrenching as never before for several reasons not the least of which are they have no money, they are worried about their job, they are just plain scared about the political and financial prospects.

3) Previous recoveries have been consumer driven. Because of a tectonic shift in consumer attitudes due to #2 there is a new aversion to assumption of debt. I believe this will be a permanent change.

4) Home building, which was the last recession buster, won't be helping anytime soon. Manufacturing is virtually dead in this country so don't count on that. Auto's won't be the magic bullet either.

5) The "new" financial economy based on smoke and mirrors has proven to be a flop so that's not going to help either.

SOOOOOO......The BIG question is this?

Exactly what sector of the economy is it that is going to drive a recovery and provide employment for the hundreds of thousands of folks that are finding themselves out of work with no reasonable prospect of new work in their chosen field?

Note for Kahuna.. As a former commercial banker you have to be petrified at what you see on the landscape.(??) I'm curious as to where and what businesses would you invest your banks' funds today? Manufacturing? Housing? Retail? Auto's? Financial Services? Credit Cards? What else have we got?