[Villages Kahuna]

There has been lots of discussion regarding increased apartment development in The Villages. With the recently-scheduled public hearings regarding the Developer’s request to build and rent lots more apartments in and around the town squares, there will be a much louder outcry.

Regarding the situation at Hacienda Hills CC, I posted my opinion that the Developer is changing his business model (and our lifestyle!) by building and renting more apartments. I noted that the Developer was acting as if there was an intention to take their ownership interests public with the sale of their ownership to a financial buyer or with an initial public offering of stock. I noted that the value of ownership of The Villages would be heavily effected by the amount of a repeating income stream. Rental income or income from businesses or amenities still owned by the Developer, such as the championship golf courses and commercial development are what is necessary to maximize the value of The Villages business model.

Unlike building and selling houses, which is not repeating income, the cash flow from businesses like shopping centers, rental apartments or fee income from recreational facilities is exactly the type of repeating cash flow so highly valued by the equity markets.

It’s now even more apparent that the Morse family is taking actions to increase the value of The Villages. Sale to a financial buyer or an initial public offering of stock are the most likely ways for the Developer to “cash out”. Unfortunately, such an ownership change will require fairly dramatic changes to the lifestyle we all bought into in order for the family to maximize the “selling price” of the business.

If the density of residential development worsens the overcrowding of rec amenities and results in more traffic, it’s now quite obvious that the Developer finds such a tradeoff not only acceptable but quite necessary to accomplish his new business model.

Three of the five incumbent Sumter County commissioners were defeated in the recent primary election. We will all have an important choice in the upcoming General Election. I’d suggest that we all pay attention to the elections of county commissioners, our most important local government representatives. The election of commissioners that are “friendly” with the Developer will likely assure the continuation of change in the local development of The Villages, even if dramatic changes to our lifestyle is the result.

You can be sure that the Developer will do everything possible to elect county commissioners friendly to his interests. As residents and taxpayers in The Villages, will we do the same?

[alwann]

Did you ever wonder who is advising the family on strategy and planning? Do Mark and Gen4 really understand the economics, the markets, the ins and outs of running a public business? I would buy at least one share just so I could become a corporate gadfly and ask hardball questions at their annual meeting.

[Stu from NYC]

Surely something for all of us to consider.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by alwann

Did you ever wonder who is advising the family on strategy and planning? Do Mark and Gen4 really understand the economics, the markets, the ins and outs of running a public business? I would buy at least one share just so I could become a corporate gadfly and ask hardball questions at their annual meeting.

Oh please. Are you serious? Why would they let somebody else ruin what they created?

It goes far beyond money as I see it.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Surely something for all of us to consider.

Quit calling me Surely.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Oh please. Are you serious? Why would they let somebody else ruin what they created?

It goes far beyond money as I see it.

If they cashed out for say 5 or 10 billion they would be sitting pretty.

Anyone who would buy this place would want to make money but keep growing and making more money not destroying TV.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Quit calling me Surely.

The first one was an awesome incredibly well done movie.

Everytime I watch find some new sight gags missed the previous dozen times.

BTW believe it was Stop calling me Surely.

[Ladygolfer93]

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna

There has been lots of discussion regarding increased apartment development in The Villages. With the recently-scheduled public hearings regarding the Developer’s request to build and rent lots more apartments in and around the town squares, there will be a much louder outcry.

Regarding the situation at Hacienda Hills CC, I posted my opinion that the Developer is changing his business model (and our lifestyle!) by building and renting more apartments. I noted that the Developer was acting as if there was an intention to take their ownership interests public with the sale of their ownership to a financial buyer or with an initial public offering of stock. I noted that the value of ownership of The Villages would be heavily effected by the amount of a repeating income stream. Rental income or income from businesses or amenities still owned by the Developer, such as the championship golf courses and commercial development are what is necessary to maximize the value of The Villages business model.

Unlike building and selling houses, which is not repeating income, the cash flow from businesses like shopping centers, rental apartments or fee income from recreational facilities is exactly the type of repeating cash flow so highly valued by the equity markets.

It’s now even more apparent that the Morse family is taking actions to increase the value of The Villages. Sale to a financial buyer or an initial public offering of stock are the most likely ways for the Developer to “cash out”. Unfortunately, such an ownership change will require fairly dramatic changes to the lifestyle we all bought into in order for the family to maximize the “selling price” of the business.

If the density of residential development worsens the overcrowding of rec amenities and results in more traffic, it’s now quite obvious that the Developer finds such a tradeoff not only acceptable but quite necessary to accomplish his new business model.

Three of the five incumbent Sumter County commissioners were defeated in the recent primary election. We will all have an important choice in the upcoming General Election. I’d suggest that we all pay attention to the elections of county commissioners, our most important local government representatives. The election of commissioners that are “friendly” with the Developer will likely assure the continuation of change in the local development of The Villages, even if dramatic changes to our lifestyle is the result.

You can be sure that the Developer will do everything possible to elect county commissioners friendly to his interests. As residents and taxpayers in The Villages, will we do the same?

What you have relayed is so obvious, but, notice how many prefer to "virtually shrug their shoulders". Don't think the general population really understands the implications. As for me, we've "been there done that" when our golf course community and our private country club (in another state) followed very closely a model you detailed. Everything changed, everything ! Yes, the HOA fees and the special assesments for street & road upkeep, gates, etc. went away, but what we got in the end was was certainly not the life and community we expected when we bought our lots. Won't go into all that, but since building here, the speculation as to if The Villages brand would ever make a public stock offering has been a constant guessing game, but the slow movement to investments that produce a sustained income stream are absolutely on target. This is exactly how it is done, and of course part of the equation is a large part of the residents not really "tuned" into the fine points of such slow (Machiavellian ?) business moves. It is much like the virus in a way; it's necessary to keep a calm, business as usual stance as much as possible to avoid a full out panic response (Tulip-mania style ?) As with our experience in our former community, it is not necessarily the end of the community, but, it was a far far different life style when the main objective is profit to satisfy the investors. Who among us would own Walmart, or Google, or Apple if it did NOT make money for us ? The complexion of a public community is much different. Many people here left that behind: crowded restaurants, public pools and golf courses, multi story building to conserve land and maximize profit, parking decks for the same reason. The point is, the bottom line is not the safety, comfort, and quality of life for the community, balance with not loosing money, to a focal point of maximum profit with minimum outlay. That is the part remaining to be seen. Where is the point that residents will no long accept making reservations weeks ahead to play golf, or days ahead to use a pool, because a parcel of ground that once built on produced a maximum of two amenity users, now produces a four story unit, with four units per floor, and a total of 32 amenity users... and that's for a simple quad-plex. When we moved here we (probably) all considered what it means to move into a community, a "city", completely owned by one, or a group of individuals. I certainly knew what "could "happen when I gave up the rights many of enjoyed as residents of any other city in any state. But maybe many of you, like me, made that trade off. It will be interesting (if that is an appropriate word...LOL ! Sorry, not funny) to see where we end up ? Will be just become a city and have an elected government, a mayor, council, etc. ? That's a stretch, who would want to annex us, Wildwood ? No, due to our past experience, I see what has been posted, an income producing business model, with sections that contain "mainly" retired individuals age 55 and up, many "family sections", the schools are already in place, certainly many public stores and restaurants are established, medical facilities, etc. The future is going to be VERY interesting, VERY !

[Ladygolfer93]

Originally Posted by alwann

Did you ever wonder who is advising the family on strategy and planning? Do Mark and Gen4 really understand the economics, the markets, the ins and outs of running a public business? I would buy at least one share just so I could become a corporate gadfly and ask hardball questions at their annual meeting.

Oh I was thinking exactly the same thing ! I'd buy a few share just to go to the annual meeting, I won't even speculate how much fun that would be ! Delivering Alpha....., I think maybe delivering "over my head".... I wonder. But it's entertaining to muse over in these activity limited times isn't it

[Ladygolfer93]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

If they cashed out for say 5 or 10 billion they would be sitting pretty.

Anyone who would buy this place would want to make money but keep growing and making more money not destroying TV.

Not at all true. Look over your own stock portfolio, or if that's not your investment preference, just take a look at the list of companies. I don't know if they will sell of course, but that line of reasoning; why would an individual, or family, take public and lose control of something they built and were so proud of ? Well, let's see, Tesla, Anheusers, Busch's, Walton's, Heinz, I mean it would take several days to list. It's the point of entrepreneurship for most, Standard Oil/ Rockefeller Foundation, generational wealth. So, not saying this will be the fate of The Villages at all, but certainly the "norm" is to go the IPO route with an entity of this size and worth... and remember, a lot of the worth is in land, not on "paper". Okay, just my perspective is all.

[Ladygolfer93]

Originally Posted by alwann

Did you ever wonder who is advising the family on strategy and planning? Do Mark and Gen4 really understand the economics, the markets, the ins and outs of running a public business? I would buy at least one share just so I could become a corporate gadfly and ask hardball questions at their annual meeting.

I don't want to steal anyone's thunder.... LOL... but you were reading my mind ! ! No question it would be worth a 100 block, or even fifty shares to attend those annual meetings..... SO worth it.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Ladygolfer93

Not at all true. Look over your own stock portfolio, or if that's not your investment preference, just take a look at the list of companies. I don't know if they will sell of course, but that line of reasoning; why would an individual, or family, take public and lose control of something they built and were so proud of ? Well, let's see, Tesla, Anheusers, Busch's, Walton's, Heinz, I mean it would take several days to list. It's the point of entrepreneurship for most, Standard Oil/ Rockefeller Foundation, generational wealth. So, not saying this will be the fate of The Villages at all, but certainly the "norm" is to go the IPO route with an entity of this size and worth... and remember, a lot of the worth is in land, not on "paper". Okay, just my perspective is all.

There are various ways to do this.

If you sell the whole thing you let someone else have the headaches while sitting on a lot of cash that you can diversify your portfolio in.

Or you can as you say sell off a portion of it but you will have outside stockholders to satisfy by having a steadily increasing profitability level.

BTW Anheuser Busch sold the entire company to a European one.

[Marathon Man]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

If they cashed out for say 5 or 10 billion they would be sitting pretty.

Anyone who would buy this place would want to make money but keep growing and making more money not destroying TV.

So, if they don't choose to sell and sit pretty, what would that tell us?

The good news is - none of us are captive. We all chose to come, and we can all choose to leave. There are so many choices, all with their own flavors. All we need to is choose the one that we like best, and take our appreciated home values there. No need to debate what developer is doing what to whom. Just chose what looks best and dive right in.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Marathon Man

So, if they don't choose to sell and sit pretty, what would that tell us?

The good news is - none of us are captive. We all chose to come, and we can all choose to leave. There are so many choices, all with their own flavors. All we need to is choose the one that we like best, and take our appreciated home values there. No need to debate what developer is doing what to whom. Just chose what looks best and dive right in.

More fun to debate what might happen

[oldtimes]

I don’t doubt this could happen. I don’t think the current generation is as committed long term as their grandparents. I would only hope that the new owners were smart enough to maintain it properly.