Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
#16
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Inflation is now the worst in 40 years; interest rates are on the rise; the stock market now up in the clouds is likely going to take a serious hit and come back to earth in the near future. Throw in shortages of every stripe. We are in for some tough times ahead.
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"No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth." Plato “To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.” Thomas Paine |
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#17
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Don't use financial adviser, I have a fiduciary for an hourly fee of 8hrs for 1000 dollars. This works well, usually 8 hrs lasts 1.5 to 2 years depending on my need for calculation, information or advise.
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#18
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This isn’t rocket science. You don’t need to guess when you will die. I would rather error on leaving more money in my investments when I die than to come up short.
A few things you can do: 1) use the “standard” 4% withdrawal rate from your investments which is designed for your portfolio to outlast your life 2) have a retirement report done that will calculate the probability of your portfolio outlasting your life. This report uses age 95 as your goal, so if you think you will live past 95, this report will tell you how much you will have with a 50-90% probability (varying results). Also, you will need to make money on your investments while in retirement and in my opinion, I don’t like bonds or money market investments, they might be safer but you don’t make money. Up until a couple weeks ago, I was fully invested in great index funds, etf’s and a couple of stocks that I rode thru 2008 and 2020 downturns, and came out with huge gains (over 60% last year, over 33% average this year) and I implement the “bucket” methodology where I don’t have to sell any shares while we have a correction/recession. For decades I never sold off investments because of a recession/downturn but this current environment we are in scares me so I sold all of my non-taxable investments and will be keeping those proceeds in cash for the next year or so. My taxable accounts I do tax harvesting to withdrawal enough each year to stay under the income caps for tax filing. |
#19
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Last edited by tophcfa; 01-16-2022 at 10:46 AM. |
#20
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No one believes the truth when the lie is more interesting Berks County Pennsylvania |
#21
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Models are just models, so start with 85, which is the current avg life span in the US, roughly. Then just add 5 years at a time, and see the results. Models are just models, which is how they are used. The are not definitive, but are estimates.
We did it at the moment with less than 50 % in equity starting now, and we can just get to 85. . after that. . who knows. . . However, the 4% rule is an old heuristic, because it was designed for taxable investments, and based upon stock market returns, The difference now is that many have retirement accounts which can have huge balances after years of savings. With retirement accounts, there is forced distributions, and different tax brackets based upon that and social security . . . The TV house expenses for a full year are about $20K before food and vehicle, including bond and taxes and lawn service. Remove the bond and add in the rest, and its about $30K per year, which is about one of our two social security checks. The other social security check is for fun. . and then one gets forced retirement RMDS. So, the options are that the RMDs are back into the taxable investment accounts until needed. . . So the real starting point is building a forecast of expenses, and don't forget additional health insurance, car, air conditioner, refrigerator and washer dryer replacements every 10 years. See how much is covered by social security first, and then see if you have enough IRA / 401K savings to cover the remainder. Estimate inflation at 4% per year, including social security, then 5% per year in a copy model, and keep the equity market returns at 6%, and bond interest at 1% less than inflation, and tax rates at the current rate. And don't forget some offspring gifts for grandchildren, etc, as those can be large, and uncertain. . . Its more about when do you run out of money, and a confounding factor is that as you get older, everyone slows down, and there will be less expensive vacations, less travel, etc. and even saving money from downsizing, . . which are generally not taken into account. . . and try to stay healthy is about keeping weight down and walking regularly or other constant motion activity. The final modeling scenario is to kill off one spouse at 75, which results in a huge decrease in social security with the same expenses, and see when you run out of money. . for that scenario, you might be surprised, most likely one of two, either run out early or never . . oh, and one annual lottery ticker per year with the same number forever. . (dead serious) that reminds me, i have to check mine. . . I haven't reproduced the fidelity model, but I can with time, and when available, i will offer it to anyone interested. . . just this stupid 10 hr per day weekday interruption |
#22
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#23
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Note: Please ignore that winking emoticon at the beginning of this post. I bumped it accidentally and I cannot make it go away. I am not winking at you.
So, anyway. . . There is a program each week on PBS called WealthTrack, hosted by Consuelo Mack who does interviews with big names in finance. The most recent episode was an interview with Christine Benz who is Morningstar’s Director of Personal Finance. You can find the interview on WealthTrack’s YouTube channel. I think it would be well worth spending the time to watch it — less than a half hour. You will pick up some good information and a lot of things to think about — so the ROI is definitely there from that standpoint. This WealthTrack episode is titled, “You’re Retiring. Now What? Retirement Planning: A Reassessment [2022] “ Even long-retired posters might find the interview interesting. And I would say that considering her position with Morningstar, she definitely has credibility. She hits several points in a short time about things to know — as best you can — when deciding at what age to retire. Boomer
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Pogo was right. Last edited by Boomer; 01-17-2022 at 08:04 PM. |
#24
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My mom, dead from cancer at 75. Her little brother still going at 93. My mother-in-law is 93. She has buried two of her children (cancer and a heart attack), and has another daughter who not likely to outlive her. In other words, it's a crap shoot. |
#25
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#26
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we are at the far right 10 on the X axis. The problem with this valuation analysis is that the market overvaluation scenario counts at this level is few and far between. So when these levels do come, the graphs shows with the negative bar that the next 5 year returns are expected to be negative. The market has already started to correct, the number of stocks which are at 50% of their top price is huge in the speculative space. See CVNA, one of my favorite shorts. 300% returns on puts captured last week. see Freshpet, and a bunch of others. . . in the small cap space, so eventually some of this will get to the sp500 but slowly. . The market up days to down days is heavily weighted to the up days, because the down days are bigger, and often times much bigger, as price declines come from NO buying, and price increases come from buying. . asymetrical and non linear. good luck for the next 5 years, utilities and energy are the best long term investments, because the world needs both, and the world is slowly starting to run out of dense energy sources. . . |
#27
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#28
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Would that be William Randolph or Patti????
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Closed Thread |
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