[Plexer2]

I recently had a discussion with a friend about house values in The Villages at build out. He thinks all our property values will skyrocket because there are no more new homes to be built. I do not agree! I think there are just too many homes available and being a retirement community, people do pass on. I think at any one time there will always be a ton of houses available on the resale market. And so many of the houses are identical models. Price might be a determining factor in whether your house moves or not. Am I nuts, what do you think?

[cleanwater]

Depends on supply and demand. The Villages needs to offer better value than alternative housing options.

I see the following four issues as fundamental to maintaining housing value.

1. Can we make the transition to a new form of effective government once the developer is not in total control? We'll need excellent government that can keep facilities and services in good order for reasonable cost. Owners need to start taking getting invovled in government and that is something new. Can we make the transition without major problems?

2. Can we evolve our facilities as people's likes and dislikes change? This requires making decisions to modify facilities and develop new means to pay for them.

3. Will the golf course owner(s) see it in their interest to keep all the courses in good shape and with reasonable pricing? The future owner may not be the current owner and certainly won't be concerned about home sales.

4. Will the commercial interests continue to sponsor free nightly entertainment in the Village Squares?

What do others see as issues to maintain house value?

[784caroline]

If you plan to retire here in TV I dont think you think of property values the same way as you did up north when you were planning for retirement. Now that you are retired of course you dont want to lose money. but i along with most other people are not planning to move anytime soom either...if at all, so how the markets react in the short term does not really matter. If they go up too fast we all pay more taxes. IN TV there are alot of the same model house, but what distinguishes them from each other is location and if you talk to people at the pools or wherever, they all live in a good location for them. Some like a golf course view, others want to be within a mile of the square or close to a rec center, others by the Learning Center etc etc etc. All the houes of similar models pretty much cost the same to build. Of course house options will differ and add to the price but the real factor is again the lot location. AS we are seeing with this recent Real Estate shake up, Golf view lots with a $150,000 premium, are no longer going for that price.

Price will always be a determining factor if your house moves or not but Bottom line is what happens 5,10, 15 years down the road as it pertains to TV Real Estate, is not as important as getting to TV in the first place.

[Peachie]

I really like that answer, Caroline. If one is ever going to live in the moment, retirement is the time!

[Bryant]

Plexer2 mentions "people do pass on". I also assumed when you pass, your kids will sell the house, take the money and run. In a discussion with 1 (31 yrs. old) of my 2 children, I said "you and your sister can sell the house when we pass away and split the money". Her reply was, "heck no, I'm buying her out, I want to live in the Villages". Can you beat that. Out of the mouths of babes!!

[JohnN]

I think property prices will increase (don't know about "skyrocket") due to supply and demand. Right now the builder tosses out a lot of new construction and supply is good. When that stops, demand may well be higher than supply and prices will increase.

That said, as a retiree, I'm not really concerned about property prices.
My kids/estate can worry about that one.

[MMC24]

I think TV will be like any other retirement community that has reached their build out stage. The demand will dictate the price for pre-owned homes that become available. I do not think prices will skyrocket but TV properties will command a certain premium because IF our amenities remain the same in the future as they are today, future retiree's will want to gain ownership and will pay a premium to buy-in to our lifestyle. Today, other surrounding communities offer more "house-for-the-money but they do not have the TV amenities, hence, our prices are higher. I believe this will be the same in the future.

[rshoffer]

Originally Posted by Plexer2

I recently had a discussion with a friend about house values in The Villages at build out. He thinks all our property values will skyrocket because there are no more new homes to be built. I do not agree! I think there are just too many homes available and being a retirement community, people do pass on. I think at any one time there will always be a ton of houses available on the resale market. And so many of the houses are identical models. Price might be a determining factor in whether your house moves or not. Am I nuts, what do you think?

I think all bets are off until the current economic crisis is addressed. Last nite our President suggested that our 401 K's could be wiped out. I'm sure I'm in the minority but my entire retirement livelihood is a 401-K and annuity. People who are currently in the same boat and about to retire may take a wait and see stance for a while.

I tend to think that at least some other retirement communities will go the route The Villages has, regarding amenities. Let's face it, its worked so well here, someone is bound to copy the idea! If so, then TV will be competing with those communties. If the other communities have larger, nicer lots, etc., we might be at a disadvantage. Also to consider, at buildout our homes will be older than they are now, so we may be competing with homes in other communities that are newer. Also, who knows how the maintenance of the grounds is going to be here in the future. I see even now that there are nowhere near the number of landscape people employed by TV that we used to have 3 or 4 years ago. If you walk along the sidewalk, I see weeds near the road that make it look a little unkempt. I don't mean to sound negative, but these are considerations that buyers will make. I just don't see it as a "given" that our property values will rise or rise substantially.

[Peachie]

rekop, I think most of the people retiring are considering 10-25 years of additional living. For another community to get off the ground and evolve into what has been developed here would take more time than that. The lots in TV are very nice and I, for one, do not want to spend my hard earned money and time mowing grass for the last years of my life so I don't know how important "big lots" are to the majority of retirees. IMHO, TV will still be a beautiful place 30 years from now. Beyond that, our children can worry about it.

[Don H]

Does anyone know the projected date or time frame for buildout?

[Peachie]

Don H: Does anyone know the projected date or time frame for buildout?


I think it was 5-7 years but it's hard to predict in this economy.

[Frangyomory]

Originally Posted by Peachie

rekop, I think most of the people retiring are considering 10-25 years of additional living. For another community to get off the ground and evolve into what has been developed here would take more time than that. The lots in TV are very nice and I, for one, do not want to spend my hard earned money and time mowing grass for the last years of my life so I don't know how important "big lots" are to the majority of retirees. IMHO, TV will still be a beautiful place 30 years from now. Beyond that, our children can worry about it.

We have no children but do have nieces and nephews and they all want to live here. What I see them doing is likely using our place almost like a time share until one of them decides to buy the others out. They all think we have done the best for our retirement and love to visit. Now they are in their late 30s and early 40s and talk about "when" not "if" they move to the Villages...regardless of whether we leave the place to them or if they buy their own place.

We don't ever talk about home value. Since we don't plan to sell, we don't worry about the value of our home. We love it; we bought it; we are frogs and the kids will love it after we are long gone!!!!! That's the value to us.

[faithfulfrank]

I have a friend of mine who lives in another 55+ gated golf community close to TV, who says another factor to consider is the coming huge wave of boomers.......

Even if just a portion of them decide on Florida, the demand will once again be higher then the supply.....something we have not seen in years.

Frank D.

Even though the economy may slow down the completion of the build out, the retiring boomers (boomers will be retiring for about 15-20 years) should still provide the demand to see it completed, even if it takes a little longer. I have been wondering what will happen to the marketing campaign for TV once the developer completes build out. One of the drivers in attracting prospects to TV the first time is the way in which it is marketed nationally and internationally. If the amenities and beauty are maintained by the districts and owners associations after build out, there will still need to be some national/international marketing program to continue to attact new visitors and keep the demand growing in order for the property values to continue to grow. I wonder where the marketing plan will be vested at that time.