[mulligan]

A question for all you students of weather out there: I am sure I am not the only one who has noticed that frequently a massive rainstorm will seem to either split and move around TV, or dissipate just before it gets here. Is it possible that a "heat island" has been created here, and how much could that really affect our local weather.

[tuccillo]

There have been some studies of the impact of cities on thunderstorms but I am not sure how relevant they are to The Villages since we have a lot of green space compared to cities. Essentially, the heat island effect can enhance thunderstorms on the edges of the city depending on the prevailing wind. Variations in surface evaporation can produce enhanced convergence zones that may lead to preferred areas for convection.

I can't say I have observed what you are describing but then again I don't look at radar images all day. As you can imagine, an objective and systematic study using radar data would take some effort. Without such a study it is hard to say whether such a phenomenon is really occurring here. Is there some impact, probably. How big is it, hard to say. We had some pretty good thunderstorms come through last night around 3AM.

Full disclosure, undergraduate and graduate degrees in Atmospheric Science and wrote weather modelling codes for the Government.

Originally Posted by mulligan

A question for all you students of weather out there: I am sure I am not the only one who has noticed that frequently a massive rainstorm will seem to either split and move around TV, or dissipate just before it gets here. Is it possible that a "heat island" has been created here, and how much could that really affect our local weather.

[Villager Joyce]

Interesting sidebar. One of my college professors said there were two Careers where you could be wrong and still keep your job: meteorologists and economists.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

There have been some studies of the impact of cities on thunderstorms but I am not sure how relevant they are to The Villages since we have a lot of green space compared to cities. Essentially, the heat island effect can enhance thunderstorms on the edges of the city depending on the prevailing wind. Variations in surface evaporation can produce enhanced convergence zones that may lead to preferred areas for convection.

I can't say I have observed what you are describing but then again I don't look at radar images all day. As you can imagine, an objective and systematic study using radar data would take some effort. Without such a study it is hard to say whether such a phenomenon is really occurring here. Is there some impact, probably. How big is it, hard to say. We had some pretty good thunderstorms come through last night around 3AM.

Full disclosure, undergraduate and graduate degrees in Atmospheric Science and wrote weather modelling codes for the Government.

Cool.
Good Full Disclosure.

I was going to answer based on standing in my front yard...........never mind.

[tuccillo]

I am interested in your observations - please share.

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Cool.
Good Full Disclosure.

I was going to answer based on standing in my front yard...........never mind.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

I am interested in your observations - please share.

I've noticed:

a) no matter what happened yesterday or today...........the sun will come up tomorrow

b) it's always a beautiful day in TV

c) sometimes it rains, sometimes it doesn't

d) the sunset is always on the right side of my house

e) it's always dark at night


Sorry........................didn't mean to show off.

[tuccillo]

LOL. Unlike meteorologists and economists, you are 100% correct!

Originally Posted by dewilson58

I've noticed:

a) no matter what happened yesterday or today...........the sun will come up tomorrow

b) it's always a beautiful day in TV

c) sometimes it rains, sometimes it doesn't

d) the sunset is always on the right side of my house

e) it's always dark at night


Sorry........................didn't mean to show off.

[kathy and al]

Originally Posted by mulligan

A question for all you students of weather out there: I am sure I am not the only one who has noticed that frequently a massive rainstorm will seem to either split and move around TV, or dissipate just before it gets here. Is it possible that a "heat island" has been created here, and how much could that really affect our local weather.

Couldn't agree more. When we moved to the Villages about 8 years ago our Real Estate agent told us that there was an "umbrella" over the Villages and that rainfall was hard to come by. Boy has she been right. Over the past few days (Sun. & Mon.) there have been some really ominous cells moving from north to south out of Ocala and directly heading towards the Villages. Looked like my lawn might get watered real well from the sky after 2 months of near drought. Unfortunately on Sun. the cell stopped at the Sumter County line and went around the Villages to the east and caused some serious damage to homes south of us. On Mon. (yesterday) the serious cell moved directly south again directly towards the Villages and flattened out entirely as it approached the Marion/Sumter line. Don't know what causes this but it's pretty freaky!!! By the way, I'm close to Spanish Springs Town Square.
Thanks for your post.

[Barefoot]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Cool.
Good Full Disclosure.
I was going to answer based on standing in my front yard...........never mind.

[tuccillo]

A quick check of some of the Weather Underground stations would suggest that there is not an "umbrella" over The Villages.

Originally Posted by kathy and al

Couldn't agree more. When we moved to the Villages about 8 years ago our Real Estate agent told us that there was an "umbrella" over the Villages and that rainfall was hard to come by. Boy has she been right. Over the past few days (Sun. & Mon.) there have been some really ominous cells moving from north to south out of Ocala and directly heading towards the Villages. Looked like my lawn might get watered real well from the sky after 2 months of near drought. Unfortunately on Sun. the cell stopped at the Sumter County line and went around the Villages to the east and caused some serious damage to homes south of us. On Mon. (yesterday) the serious cell moved directly south again directly towards the Villages and flattened out entirely as it approached the Marion/Sumter line. Don't know what causes this but it's pretty freaky!!! By the way, I'm close to Spanish Springs Town Square.
Thanks for your post.

[billethkid]

So now TV "bubble" that we live in has actually been authenticated!!!!

[Sophie11]

Did anyone notice the lightning in the sky at 2AM - It was flashing from 2 places and causing a flicker for 2 hours coming out of the west!

[cquick]

yes! the lightning was amazing last night. and the thunder was so loud! we even got some rain!

[tuccillo]

Looks like about an inch at my house.

Originally Posted by cquick

yes! the lightning was amazing last night. and the thunder was so loud! we even got some rain!

[justanormalgirl]

Is there by chance a landfill in that area? I have noticed the same thing here (not in TV or Florida) but we have a huge landfill right outside of town that releases gas, methane I think. I have noticed several times that we can have a large, severe storm heading right for us and about the time I get everything ready to head for the basement the storm either splits and goes around us or it totally disappears. I've been wondering if the gas from the landfill has anything to do with it.