[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

A realtor here told me the sellers have no sense of reality in pricing. Been to a few open houses with only one person showing up. Many higher end homes need at least 100k price cut

Those are the people who are trying to get double the price they paid 2-3 years ago...

[Michael 61]

Originally Posted by 55&Out

I'm a potential buyer in TV aiming to schedule a lifestyle visit in late spring 2023. Agreed that TV is very unique however I'm betting prices will stagnate or fall during the next 12 months. The current economic data I review is gloomy...it appears America is entering a slow grinding recession that may grow nasty legs. I'm thinking this one will slowly empty the pocketbooks of the people.

You will fall in love with TV on your lifestyle visit, I did this past summer. Hopefully I’ll be buying a new home this coming Monday (fingers crossed)

[Dr Winston O Boogie jr]

Originally Posted by Boston-Sean

In the Boston suburbs it looks like 7% mortgage rates are finally causing cracks in the housing market. For the last 3+ years there has been zero inventory below $750K in several 2nd tier towns near Boston. I know because I've been looking. Over the last few months a handful or properties have shown up. Followed by price reductions. Typically $10-15K which is pretty laughable for a $700K home. I expect more to come.

My best guess is that we are still at the beginning of whatever this is that we are headed into. So who knows how much larger the crack are going to get.

My guess for the villages market is that price appreciation is over for now. The 2008 housing crash was pretty severe so I'd predict similar price behavior this time in the villages. As in not much price reductions.

But who the hell knows.

A very large percentage of buyers in The Villages pay cash which is another reason property values tend to stay higher than most of the country.

[Laker14]

I first started following home prices in TV around 2007, when friends of mine bought a home in the brand new (then brand new) Village of Largo. When the "Big Housing Bubble" burst in 2008, there was a modest downturn in prices, but it didn't last long, and wasn't nearly as drastic as in other parts of Florida, or many other parts of the country.
I did know a lady who, in her late 70s, overly leveraged herself financially, buying multiple properties in TV, and then she got scared and sold them all at the bottom....a very bad outcome for her.
But as a person interested in buying at the bottom, there really wasn't that much of a bottom in TV. Not like Las Vegas, or even Cape Coral.
TV is unique. Property values, and what people are willing to pay for homes in TV, aren't as tied to things like whether or not there is work to be found, as, say, a suburb of Chicago. There is some upward effect when there has been 10 years of historically positive stock market returns, and historically low mortgage rates, along with an unusually high number of early retirements, fueled by the stock market wealth and COVID. Corrections there will have an effect on demand, but historically, if you are looking for a 30% or 40% crash in prices in TV, that hasn't happened. You could wait for it to happen, and if it does, you can swoop in and buy at the bottom. Or, you can wait for it to happen, and if it never does, well, you just won't ever live in TV.

[Rainger99]

You ask why home prices haven’t crashed?

How do you define crash?

A stock market crash is usually described as a double-digit percentage drop in a stock index over the course of a few days.

I think that many resale prices have dropped at least 10% from the initial listing but they were way overpriced to begin with. Is that a crash?

I have seen homes that were bought last year going on the market this year with a 50% increase in price. A lot of them are not moving. I think the 2021 bubble is over.

We bought last year. I probably could have sold for 25% profit earlier this year. Some neighbors sold for about 33% profit. I think I could still sell at a profit of maybe 10-15% but after commissions and moving costs, it would be a wash.

So is that a crash?

Unless the economy really tanks - think 1929 crash, I think my home will hold its value. Wish I could say the same about my 401(k).

[MX rider]

Originally Posted by Rainger99

You ask why home prices haven’t crashed?

How do you define crash?

A stock market crash is usually described as a double-digit percentage drop in a stock index over the course of a few days.

I think that many resale prices have dropped at least 10% from the initial listing but they were way overpriced to begin with. Is that a crash?

I have seen homes that were bought last year going on the market this year with a 50% increase in price. A lot of them are not moving. I think the 2021 bubble is over.

We bought last year. I probably could have sold for 25% profit earlier this year. Some neighbors sold for about 33% profit. I think I could still sell at a profit of maybe 10-15% but after commissions and moving costs, it would be a wash.

So is that a crash?

Unless the economy really tanks - think 1929 crash, I think my home will hold its value. Wish I could say the same about my 401(k).

Well said!

[ednetdl]

I would think that as interest rates rise, new retirees will be able to get less for their homes up north and therefore have less to spend on their home in The Villages and that will have a downward effect on prices.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by ednetdl

I would think that as interest rates rise, new retirees will be able to get less for their homes up north and therefore have less to spend on their home in The Villages and that will have a downward effect on prices.

Agreed

[VApeople]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

A realtor here told me the sellers have no sense of reality in pricing. Been to a few open houses with only one person showing up. Many higher end homes need at least 100k price cut

Originally Posted by JMintzer

Those are the people who are trying to get double the price they paid 2-3 years ago...

That is a very good point.

According to Zillow, our house has doubled in value, but it has taken six years. Recently, it has even decreased in value. Such is life.

[55&Out]

Great posts everyone. I appreciate the insight. Personally, I need more margin of safety when purchasing a high ticket item in these interesting economic times. The Fed is clearly raising interest rates, which will impact the housing markets. Many folks may pay cash for properties in TV, however I tend to believe just as many don’t. The Ocala region is certainly chuck-full of mortgage lenders. Developers and builders always manipulate supply and demand to protect their interests, however one thing is clear, if homes aren't selling, prices and profits will be impacted, potentially leading to economic domino effects. Unless Tinker-bell files overhead sprinkling magic dust, my internal gauge for risk is flashing “Patience & Defense”.

I have so many questions, too many for this thread. Most revolve around true TV living costs and increase of such over time, home construction quality, overgrowth, living among renters, labor market staffing availability, and on a grander scale, sustainability of the whole TV business model (Is it a boomer driven fad? High dollar area folks from the coasts pricing out everyone else? Will TV be targeted by powerful political interests bent on destroying conservative values?).

Perhaps I’m demanding the impossible, seeking objectivity in a world of subjectivity. I understand the pride of folks that buy into TV; they have skin-in-the-game, that said, despite past performance, TV is not immune from economic reality. Since I’m a proof-is-in-the-pudding type of guy, my lifestyle visit is still on for 2023. I’m hoping to fall in love too.

[55&Out]

Great posts everyone. I appreciate the insight. Personally, I need more margin of safety when purchasing a high ticket item in these interesting economic times. The Fed is clearly raising interest rates, which will impact the housing markets. Many folks may pay cash for properties in TV, however I tend to believe just as many don’t. The Ocala region is certainly chuck-full of mortgage lenders. Developers and builders always manipulate supply and demand to protect their interests, however one thing is clear, if homes aren't selling, prices and profits will be impacted, potentially leading to economic domino effects. Unless Tinker-bell files overhead sprinkling magic dust, my internal gauge for risk is flashing “Patience & Defense”.

I have so many questions, too many for this thread. Most revolve around true TV living costs and increase of such over time, home construction quality, overgrowth, living among renters, labor market staffing availability, and on a grander scale, sustainability of the whole TV business model (Is it a boomer driven fad? High dollar area folks from the coasts pricing out everyone else? Will TV be targeted by powerful political interests bent on destroying conservative values?).

Perhaps I’m demanding the impossible, seeking objectivity in a world of subjectivity. I understand the pride of folks that buy into TV; they have skin-in-the-game, that said, despite past performance, TV is not immune from economic reality. Since I’m a proof-is-in-the-pudding type of guy, my lifestyle visit is still on for 2023. I’m hoping to fall in love too.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Robbb

I just read online the stock market decline this year has taken 17 trillion out of the economy, in addition todays 30 year mortgage rate is 7.5%+ yet dozens of new homes are being sold every day in the Villages. I am financially very secure but no way am I going to drop 500K on a house in this market. I just don't get it.

You aren't anyone else. There are billions of people different than you.

and where were you three years ago when the houses were cheap compared to today, and you could have made lots of money on the build and sale in two years?

So what? the stock market is an investment place. Homes aren't investments, so why are you relating the two? There is a significant portion of the population who can afford to do it, likewise given the events of hurricanes, there may be some peeps taking their insurance money are relocating to a now nicer inland house, could be in the villages, or not.

You aren't taking into consideration downsizing effects from high cost of living areas to here.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

There are no "country clubs" that offer anything close to the amenities available in TV...

I know... We looked... Yes, Country Club homes in West Palm, Boca West, etc, can be had for about$100/sq ft, much less than in TV. BUT... You MUST join the golf club ($70-100K), the yearly dues and dining minimums are at least $25K... You get 1, maybe 2 golf courses... 1, maybe 2 pools... One health club... A half a dozen tennis and pickelball courts...

Those houses are also very dated, built in the late 80's with so much brass and glass, shiny lacquer laminate cabinets and built-ins... They need a complete remodel...

If that's what you want, go for it... We preferred TV...

Looks like you were looking at IBIS. Lived in area. At one point you could buy in other country clubs(such as Boca West) for next to nothing since demand in golf was at a low point and buyers were not paying equity cost and the minimum(20-25K) yearly costs. These were REAL country clubs with all of the amenities.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by kkingston57

Looks like you were looking at IBIS. Lived in area. At one point you could buy in other country clubs(such as Boca West) for next to nothing since demand in golf was at a low point and buyers were not paying equity cost and the minimum(20-25K) yearly costs. These were REAL country clubs with all of the amenities.

Yup...