[tuccillo]

Yes, we are staying in The Villages.

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral code will be available in about 2 hours. In the 11PM NHC forecast discussion, the forecasters are forecasting a pretty rapid drop in max wind speed after landfall. Here are the wind forecasts:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

00Z the 11th is Sunday evening at 8PM and the position is south of us over Lake Okeechobee. These times correspond to the forecast track positions in the following link.


HURRICANE IRMA

Originally Posted by Blessed2BNTV

Now I'm getting concerned, real concerned.

Tuccillo, are you staying in The Villages?

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Yes, we are staying in The Villages.

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral code will be available in about 2 hours. In the 11PM NHC forecast discussion, the forecasters are forecasting a pretty rapid drop in max wind speed after landfall. Here are the wind forecasts:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

00Z the 11th is Sunday evening at 8PM and the position is south of us over Lake Okeechobee. These times correspond to the forecast track positions in the following link.


HURRICANE IRMA

I just saw on the Weather Channel where we could have 100mph+ winds...even here.

It's so big, that it can get energy from both the Gulf and the Atlantic....since it's only 140 miles from one to the other here in The Villages.

I'm just accepting that I might lose shingles/part of my roof, maybe some windows, wind-driven water damage...but it shouldn't be life-threatening (minus tornadoes).

Anything less than that...and I'll feel lucky.

[Blessed2BNTV]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Yes, we are staying in The Villages.

The 00Z cycle of the NWS spectral code will be available in about 2 hours. In the 11PM NHC forecast discussion, the forecasters are forecasting a pretty rapid drop in max wind speed after landfall. Here are the wind forecasts:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 21.3N 72.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.8N 74.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 76.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 22.9N 78.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 23.7N 79.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.2N 81.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0000Z 32.0N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 35.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

00Z the 11th is Sunday evening at 8PM and the position is south of us over Lake Okeechobee. These times correspond to the forecast track positions in the following link.


HURRICANE IRMA

Thanks for your quick response. I will continue to watch for your posts.

[tuccillo]

This thing is still 3-4 days out and the envelope of where it could go is still very wide at that time period. The surface drag, once it gets over land, will take a toll on the max wind speeds. If the current 11PM forecasted track was to verify, it could be down to cat 1 level when it gets in our area. Stay tuned ...

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore

I just saw on the Weather Channel where we could have 100mph+ winds...even here.

It's so big, that it can get energy from both the Gulf and the Atlantic....since it's only 140 miles from one to the other here in The Villages.

I'm just accepting that I might lose shingles/part of my roof, maybe some windows, wind-driven water damage...but it shouldn't be life-threatening (minus tornadoes).

Anything less than that...and I'll feel lucky.

[Ragman]

The coordinates of the Villages is roughly:

28 degrees 56 minutes North

81 degrees 57 minutes West

That will give you some idea where we are in relation to the forecast advisory.

[Soxman]

We have frame and siding house. Hope it holds up. Large windows on east side of house supposed to good to 130 mph. Too late to find plywood. Will hunker down in the tiny laundry room, inside room with no windows. Hope the garage door is good. 2014 designer home.

[Ragman]

The 11:00 PM advisory from the NHC now has the "little black line" through Fruitland Park.

[Taltarzac725]

Originally Posted by Ragman

The 11:00 PM advisory from the NHC now has the "little black line" through Fruitland Park.

Scary stuff.

[Chatbrat]

Get ready to be without power for a week-no showers-stinky bug bitten-load your car with gas and important stuff-go towards TN

[tuccillo]

The 5AM NHC forecast track continues to mostly follow the ECMWF spectral code with the track moving just to the east of us. The 6Z NWS spectral code has the track a bit further east. It is forecast to be in our vicinity around early Monday morning as a cat-1 or cat-2 storm. This track still has a large envelope of possible locations but is starting to look more and more solid.

Here are the forecasted wind maximums. 6Z on the 11 is 2AM Monday morning and is still a bit south of us.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.7N 73.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 22.6N 77.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 23.3N 79.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.5N 80.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 33.0N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Here is the latest official NHC forecast track:

HURRICANE IRMA

[Soxman]

So 105 mph winds for us.

[PPreu]

More like 75 mph.

[tuccillo]

Based on the current forecast, I think that is a reasonable number - could be a bit higher. The max winds will be decreasing rapidly as it moves north. We are still 3 days out and hurricane intensity is more difficult to estimate than the track. And the track forecasts typically have 200+ mile errors at 4-5 days.

The 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral code computes 5+ inches of precipitation in our area for the next 5 days. Some of that is before we start being directly impacted by Irma. If the track does come in a bit west of the NWS spectral code then higher amounts are possible. You may hear even higher amounts from forecasters as they adjust the raw model output.

Originally Posted by PPreu

More like 75 mph.

[villages07]

Any thoughts on what the predominant wind direction might be for the worst of the winds?

Also, which scenario is less dangerous for TV...storm coming up the spine that may weaken or storm going up the east coast so it is further away but might retain more of its strength?


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[NECHFalcon68]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

Based on the current forecast, I think that is a reasonable number. The max winds will be decreasing rapidly as it moves north.

The 6Z cycle of the NWS spectral code computes 5+ inches of precipitation in our area for the next 5 days. Some of that is before we start being directly impacted by Irma. If the track does come in a bit west of the NWS spectral code then higher amounts are possible. You may here even higher amounts from forecasters as they adjust the raw model output.

Tuc - how dependable is that precipitation forecast? Recently we had a storm that brought close to 4 inches in 2 hours. 5 inches over 5 days doesnt seem to be an issue.