[Taltarzac725]

I am starting to stock up on canned goods just in case. We have a lot of bottled water from the last false scare around September or October of 2016. Ate all the canned goods already I had collected back then. 2016 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia Not sure which storm in 2016 this even was that caused all the fuss?

Matthew probably? Hurricane Matthew - Wikipedia

[Dan9871]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

It is still way too early to make any reliable predications.

Yup, that's why I said it could change in a day or two... but it is a change from the last ECMWF run which had a US land fall...

[tuccillo]

As I said, it is still too early to push the panic button. Missing the US has always been a possibility. Numerical guidance out at 200+ hours is not a certainty. The recent GFS ensembles would suggest some consistency at 144 hours. Reliable guidance, plus the NHC forecast for the time period of interest, will have to wait until Wednesday. Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a developer of research and operational numerical weather prediction codes for NASA and the National Weather Service. I pretty much know what I am talking about.

Originally Posted by Dan9871

Yup, that's why I said it could change in a day or two... but it is a change from the last ECMWF run which had a US land fall...

[Ecuadog]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

... I pretty much know what I am talking about.

You guys are few and far between on TOTV.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by tuccillo

As I said, it is still too early to push the panic button. Missing the US has always been a possibility. Numerical guidance out at 200+ hours is not a certainty. The recent GFS ensembles would suggest some consistency at 144 hours. Reliable guidance, plus the NHC forecast for the time period of interest, will have to wait until Wednesday. Full disclosure: undergraduate and graduate degrees in meteorology. I was a developer of research and operational numerical weather prediction codes for NASA and the National Weather Service. I pretty much know what I am talking about.

I knew you were smart. You are nice too.

[justjim]

The biggest reason to not panic is to remember where The Villages is located. Those living along coastal areas evacuate to our area. Twice we had friends and relatives over from Brevard County and we had a great "Hurricane party". The last was hurricane Matthew last year in the first week of October. Unfortunately, we will miss the party as we will be in Illinois for wife's high school class reunion. However, our home will still be available if needed.

[tuccillo]

Rumsfeld said it best:

There are things we do not know we don't know. So when we do the best we can and we pull all this information together, and we then say well that's basically what we see as the situation, that is really only the known knowns and the known unknowns. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.

Originally Posted by graciegirl

I knew you were smart. You are nice too.

[Schaumburger]

Originally Posted by Abby10

I hear ya, Schaumburger. We are looking to fly down on Sept 12 to enjoy 3 weeks with the good folks in TV and will be watching carefully how this all plays out on this end as well.

In the meantime, praying for safe travels for your return home.

Abby10, Hope your travels to TV on Sept. 12 are safe as well. Oh you get to be in TV for 3 weeks, you are so lucky.

[tuccillo]

The 12Z cycle of the NWS and ECMWF spectral transform models continues the "troublesome" trend from the 00Z cycle. Both codes are pretty consistent on how they handle a short wave that will dive into the east and the associated ridge over the western Atlantic. The time to really start paying attention continues to be Wednesday as that will be within the 5-day window of the official track forecast from the NHC. The models track Irma across northern Cuba and then quickly move north and impacts FL on mon/tues. There are still a number of possible scenarios including going up the east coast and also up the middle of FL. Missing FL altogether is still a possibility. With a "miss", the east coast may still see tropical storm force winds. When looking at any storm track forecasts keep in mind that the typical error in the track is about 200 miles at 4-5 days.

[Villageswimmer]

Thanks for the update, Tuccillo.

[Aloha1]

And if you watched the mainstream media tonite
(CBS, NBC) , they all are saying a direct hit on Florida

Part of me says, what bull pucky but another part says maybe the chicken little announcers might cause someone to actually pay attention and save their life.

Regardless, Governor Scott issued an emergency preparedness order tonite and good for him. I am with Tuccillo on it being too early to tell but better safe than sorry.

[Ingenuity]

I drove to The Villages from Houston area, and arrived today. I have a final job interview(they were very accommodating by a phone and virtual interview last week). I will also be looking for a rental, and looking at homes to buy. My house sold, but my fiance's has not sold yet so we are late in getting down here.
It took me quite a while to get out of Houston because one must be creative to avoid the flood waters. Now Irma is coming? Wow, I hope Florida catches a break.

[kcrazorbackfan]

A bump to the north with Irma and Florida will look a lot different in about a week. All the containers are full of fuel, water and food is stocked up and the generator gets fired up tomorrow. Even have a 5 gal container full of dried food. Fingers crossed 🤞 that it doesn't turn north.

[patfla06]

After living in Florida 20 years I have never had to evacuate.

What worries me are the models showing it going right up the middle of the state.

Keeping any eye out and saying a prayer.

[tuccillo]

Yes, that is troublesome. I believe/hope the ECMWF code has a better handle on things and it goes up the east coast. Start paying serious attention on Wednesday.

Originally Posted by patfla06

After living in Florida 20 years I have never had to evacuate.

What worries me are the models showing it going right up the middle of the state.

Keeping any eye out and saying a prayer.