[miharris]

Several people have referenced an article in the WSJ regarding the coming surge of Covid-19 cases in the villages, so I decided to post a daily update on the surge. Since there is no separate reporting for the Villages specifically, I decided to combine the numbers from the 3 counties that include portions of the villages, as reported by the Daily Sun. It's not perfect, but it’s a pretty good representation of the overall trends in our part of central Florida.

Update for April 27, 2020

Tri-county area:

Total cases: 544
New cases: 4 - up 0.55%
% of population diagnosed with C-19: 0.063%

Fatalities: 26
New: 0
Total fatalities as a % of total population: 0.003%


Sumter county:

Total cases: 171
New cases: 2
% of population diagnosed with C-19: 0.02%

Total fatalities: 12
New fatalities: 0
Total fatalities as a % of the population: 0.009%





I now have a week’s worth of data, so I thought it may be helpful to update the odds based on a one-week average.

Tri-county area:

Average daily new cases: 8.5
Daily odds of getting C-19: .001% or 100,000 to 1
Daily odds of Dying from C-19: .0048% or 2,120,098 to 1

Sumter county:

Average daily new cases: 3.3
Daily odds of getting C-19: .0025%, or 40,303 to 1
Daily odds of dying from C-19: .000173% or 575,757 to 1


The odds above are based on the average daily new cases multiplied by the observed CFR (Case Fatality Rate). One interesting dynamic is that the daily numbers of new fatalities are not really following the CFR, in other words the incremental CFR is lower than the total CFR.

We had 23 new cases reported, and 1 fatality over the past 7 days, giving a CFR of 4.3% vs the average of the totals of 7.9%. Although it’s a much smaller sample set with a higher chance of sampling error, the trend seems to be encouraging.

Also, someone pointed out that the unusually large increase in Sumter county on 4/24 was likely due to a large number of inmates at the Bushnell correctional facility testing positive. Drilling down to the zip codes seems to support this theory. If you take out 10 of the 15 reported cases that day, the average daily cases would go to 1.9, and the odds of catching/dying from C-19 in Sumter county would be considerably lower.

Stay safe and be reasonable

[Altavia]

Confirmed COVID-19 cases rise in Sumter County - News - Daily Commercial - Leesburg, FL

" Included in Sumter’s total confirmed cases are results from the Sumter Correctional Institution in Bushnell. Based on information released by the Florida Department of Corrections, 31 inmates at the Sumter facility have tested positive for COVID-19, along with four staff members. "

[npwalters]

Keep up the good work. You will be drowned out by the gloom and doom squad but it is good information.

[n8xwb]

Here's some more good news on trends...from of all places, California.

IMPORTANT: California Doctors Erickson and Massihi Press Conference - YouTube