[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

So your making this into another income tax.

There is such a thing as giving people a reason to work harder and make more without getting the benefits of hard work. At some point are you not paying your fair share?

It already is an existing tax, just not fairly distributed. . some taxes are not bad if they are spent properly, and this one would be sent properly supporting those who had contributed and expect / are counting on payouts. .

Majority of govt spending is social security due to the huge increase in longevity and the reduction in higher paying jobs, and medicare, due to the huge increase in longevity and the associated medical costs. . all retirement issues. .

So with machines replacing labor, you reduce the labor force paying into retirement programs. . . My last employer has over 250 bots doing human work. . should we tax them? All employees are customers, cut employees and you cut future sales Its just like the medieval system of land owners and serf labor. Now its capital owners of machines, and serf labor. . . you want to support the retired serfs to continue to purchase products, or are you expecting only working people with declining wages to buy stuff and pay into the retirement system?

Ultimately we will become Europe if we aren't careful. .

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

It already is an existing tax, just not fairly distributed. . some taxes are not bad if they are spent properly, and this one would be sent properly supporting those who had contributed and expect / are counting on payouts. .

Majority of govt spending is social security due to the huge increase in longevity and the reduction in higher paying jobs, and medicare, due to the huge increase in longevity and the associated medical costs. . all retirement issues. .

So with machines replacing labor, you reduce the labor force paying into retirement programs. . . My last employer has over 250 bots doing human work. . should we tax them? All employees are customers, cut employees and you cut future sales Its just like the medieval system of land owners and serf labor. Now its capital owners of machines, and serf labor. . . you want to support the retired serfs to continue to purchase products, or are you expecting only working people with declining wages to buy stuff and pay into the retirement system?

Ultimately we will become Europe if we aren't careful. .

I believe you are overlooking something.

As we continue to industrialize new jobs are created with higher pay offsetting a lot of the jobs that have been lost. Those people are buying products and services.

Also think that if we continue with labor shortages we will come to the conclusion we should invite people with necessary skills to become citizens. Higher taxes will discourage that.

[Whitley]

It is easy to blame the younger generations for being lazy, unwilling to work as we did, etc.. I do it at times myself. I do understand that there are reasons that contribute to the situation we are in. Many (all) of the reasons we worked so hard have been taken away from current generations. In 1970 the median home was 2.6 x the median income. It would take all income for 2.6 years to purchase the median priced home. Today it is close to 7 years. The home price to income ratio is far from healthy. Home prices have increased 4x the income increase. In 1970 it would take 3 months pay (median) to purchase a car (median price). Today it is close to one years income. Even renting an apartment has increased at 2x the rate of HOUSEHOLD income. I stress household because most households today have two incomes.
I doubt I am alone when I would complain about working 12 hour days, leaving when it was dark, coming home when it was dark, only to eat sleep and start again. I complained but I had a beautiful home, sent my children to private schools and drove nice cars. The current generation has been dealt a bum hand.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Whitley

It is easy to blame the younger generations for being lazy, unwilling to work as we did, etc.. I do it at times myself. I do understand that there are reasons that contribute to the situation we are in. Many (all) of the reasons we worked so hard have been taken away from current generations. In 1970 the median home was 2.6 x the median income. It would take all income for 2.6 years to purchase the median priced home. Today it is close to 7 years. The home price to income ratio is far from healthy. Home prices have increased 4x the income increase. In 1970 it would take 3 months pay (median) to purchase a car (median price). Today it is close to one years income. Even renting an apartment has increased at 2x the rate of HOUSEHOLD income. I stress household because most households today have two incomes.
I doubt I am alone when I would complain about working 12 hour days, leaving when it was dark, coming home when it was dark, only to eat sleep and start again. I complained but I had a beautiful home, sent my children to private schools and drove nice cars. The current generation has been dealt a bum hand.

But we all have a lot more stuff than what we had growing up so not so sure that overall the current generation has been dealt a lousy hand.

[Normal]

We are in a situation where there are less able bodies workers available to do too many jobs. This drives up the price of many things because employers have to figure out ways around the higher wages that can obviously be demanded by the few. There are no instant fixes to the aged top heavy society we have eased into. Get used to poor service and longer lines because there just aren’t enough bodies to do the jobs available or needed by businesses.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

I believe you are overlooking something.

As we continue to industrialize new jobs are created with higher pay offsetting a lot of the jobs that have been lost. Those people are buying products and services.

Also think that if we continue with labor shortages we will come to the conclusion we should invite people with necessary skills to become citizens. Higher taxes will discourage that.

unfortunately, the data doesn't support the future industrialization of production. Note the cash flow use graph below from BOA/Merrill Lynch research. Note the intangible(software) / PPE shrinking, in the 1990s, it was up to 60% of cash flow. Today, 40% of cash flow. But look at the percentage in stock buybacks / which isn't creating jobs, but enriching mgmt from 5% in the early 90s to almost 30% of cashflow today. .

Labor shortages will be self correcting, but will take time.

Construction average age in the 90s was about 32+ yo, today its about 42+ yo. . young people wanting to get into tech chasing the glory of yesteryear. . you can bring in external labor, but then you have a larger unemployment pool as the tech wannabes have to be supported. . .

Also, take a look at the graph in the link below:
The percentage change is negative most of the time, meaning labor is being replaced by machines or being offshored. . . not my decision, Sr mgmt decisions
Business Sector: Labor Share for All Workers | FRED | St. Louis Fed

time is running out on the labor market unless you are in a high demand trade. .

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Construction average age in the 90s was about 32+ yo, today its about 42+ yo. . young people wanting to get into tech chasing the glory of yesteryear. . you can bring in external labor, but then you have a larger unemployment pool as the tech wannabes have to be supported. . .

time is running out on the labor market unless you are in a high demand trade. .

Here is the graph which didn't make the cut above

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Here is the graph which didn't make the cut above

Hope we are both around to see if you are right or if more well paid jobs will be created than your data suggests.

BTW ever read John Mauldin? Do believe his charts are more optimistic than yours.

[Cybersprings]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

Welcome to the new America. Most home health aides are immigrants. Most Americans don't want the job. Some immigrants are afraid to work now, even if they are legally here, because of the constant harassment just because they have darker skin, or an accent. Entitled folks say "just show your ID and you'll be fine." How many times have those entitled folks been ordered to show their ID?

hmmmm I had to show ID, get fingerprinted and background checked for my last 3 jobs.

[MrChip72]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Ultimately we will become Europe if we aren't careful. .

Around half of European countries have a higher standard of living than the US though. I'm not sure that we want to avoid becoming more like Europe for certain things.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Hope we are both around to see if you are right or if more well paid jobs will be created than your data suggests.

BTW ever read John Mauldin? Do believe his charts are more optimistic than yours.

I am not an optimist by experience and some nature . ,. . . been burned by being optimistic way too many times . . . . . also the future is uncertain, so when talking the future, i don't like the rose color tinted glasses. . everything looks weird. .


Q: How do I make a par 5 tee shot better? since I can't see something that small that far away. .

A: after hitting it, start by assuming the ball is OB, lost or in the pond. When you drive / walk up to and see the ball again, in the first cut of rough. . . life is great I might be able to make par . . if I can't find it, I was right again. . . .


Yes, I have read some Mauldin, though i find him too verbose. I used to subscribe to one of his free emails. . too conceptual, powerpointy, not enough hard data for execution purposes.. .

I prefer to learn through the school of hard knocks. .

[Whitley]

Originally Posted by MrFlorida

I had to show my ID to get a Lowe's store credit, Not an issue for me, I've nothing to hide. No wants or warrants either.

I don't buy "If you have nothing to hide..." point. If I apply for a credit card, am going to vote, buy a pistol etc., I will present ID. I will not give my ID to the police or government (to enter a gov't building) unless the law specifically requires me to. I have nothing to hide, but value my rights granted (in this case) under the fourth amendment.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

I am not an optimist by experience and some nature . ,. . . been burned by being optimistic way too many times . . . . . also the future is uncertain, so when talking the future, i don't like the rose color tinted glasses. . everything looks weird. .


Q: How do I make a par 5 tee shot better? since I can't see something that small that far away. .

A: after hitting it, start by assuming the ball is OB, lost or in the pond. When you drive / walk up to and see the ball again, in the first cut of rough. . . life is great I might be able to make par . . if I can't find it, I was right again. . . .


Yes, I have read some Mauldin, though i find him too verbose. I used to subscribe to one of his free emails. . too conceptual, powerpointy, not enough hard data for execution purposes.. .

I prefer to learn through the school of hard knocks. .

For golf carry a foot wedge and a device for getting balls from the ponds. Finance still think good no load mutual funds are a good idea