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So which one are you? Isolated or out and about.
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You are right
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CDC Data for the U.S -2017
Leading Causes of Death: Heart disease: 647,457. Cancer: 599,108. Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936. Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201. Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383. Alzheimer's disease: 121,404. Diabetes: 83,564. Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672. More items... Centers for Disease Control and Prevention › nchs › fastats The reason the above deaths did not get the mass hysteria is because the deaths were spread out over an entire year (2017). I speculate that Covid-19 deaths will be less than from influenza and pneumonia, but because of the condensed time frame of the virus outbreak, there’s a need to spread out the cases. |
Being quarantined is frustrating to many people. One of its byproducts is suggesting other methods of dealing with the virus that won't confine people. One of those is the herd immunity strategy.
For it to work, we would have to, as a society, decide we will let lots of people die (including the young since they are not completely immune) and isolate the elderly in their homes for as long as it takes to develop a vaccine. We can put as smooth a gloss on it as we think is needed, but that is a cruel method of dealing with the problem. I think it goes against our instincts to protect the most vulnerable among us. It says to the young (anyone under 65): "Go about your business. Some of you will die, from the virus or from not being able to get into a hospital, but the rest of us will develop immunity." And to the old: "Stay indoors, because there will be no room for you at the hospitals if you catch the virus." That is an approach that looks attractive to anyone that thinks they are unlikely to either be locked up or unfortunate enough to catch it and die. |
I think your article was great, but a dumb question... if herd immunity is the answer, why has it not worked for the flu? Many people contract it and die each year.
Also, I think our political news system will make it very hard for any politician to vote for the quick approach. |
News Flash
In South Korea people who have gotten the virus and recovered has later tested positive again! Better that you never get it and hope foe a vaccine 💉 |
A solid plan
N would require a crystal ball. |
Totally agree. I would be glad to stay home so that those who need to work can work.
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60% may already have had the disease; we don't know.
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I believe that this has been recommended (albeit just recently) |
Present this idea to the doctors and nurses dealing with this right now. If they are on board with it (the current nightmare times 2 or 3) then you have a better argument. Also, since this virus hits 65 and older and those with underlying conditions hardest (much higher death rate among them), I think they should have some input too. Finally, I find it hard to believe that letting the virus run rampant will be less disruptive and destructive to our economy. Have you seen the death rates in those countries where it gets out of control? Italy’s is over 12%, Spain’s is almost 10%. However, Germany’ is less than 2% (we should follow their lead since ours is approaching 3%). At any rate, I still value life over money any day. Given everything I have read and heard, I believe a better solution to getting this under control quickly is for it to become mandatory for everyone to wear face masks anytime they are not in their home, period.
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I believe Boris Johnson advocated herd immunity early on.....willing shook hands with everyone.....
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Herd immunity
Please think of this. With isolation in place hospitals are being over whelmed. We may well loose a large portion of our health care workers, worsening the problem. The dose you receive dictates how severe of a case you will experience, the two young Chinese doctors who discovered the virus have died, age is not as critical as amount of exposure. The virus has much less of a chance of spreading via plastic, cardboard, cloth, etc than it does with droplets....sneezing coughing. It is a terrible experience to isolate but a far greater experience to become infected.
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Vaccines are marginally successful at best / stay fit / vitamin C / Zinc / good multi
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Thank you George Orwell.
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Yes, that is the most logical way to get this over with. The cost is more deaths than with the "slow" method. Even isolating the most vulnerable would not be enough to mitigate this trade off. While they might be "safer", more deaths of those not classified as "most vulnerable" will occur by forging ahead and getting this over with.
I say forge ahead with business as usual. Why? Is it because I don't care about saving lives? No. Those who want to "risk" being part of the group that gets the virus and hopefully recovers can just go back to work now. Those who prefer the slow method can just stay home and isolate themselves. What am I missing with that logic? Tens of millions of people get the flu vaccine each year to protect themselves. I personally choose not to get the vaccine. It's my choice to take that risk. The same logic applies here. |
Agree!! If you can go food shopping and let’s face your not maintaining 6 feet all the time ?? Then why can’t we start people going back to work?? Also it has been said ftom the beginning the elderly and immunocompromised stay in and then allow schools remain open and work ??? Theses are just thought I’ve heard from a lot of different people!!
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I'm glad I've been vaccinated against polio, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, measles, mumps, and rubella, as well as a flu shot every year for 40+ years, and of historical significance, smallpox. You take your vitamin C and zinc, let me know how that works out for you:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl: PS: Don't step on any rusty nails or visit any third world countries where polio is still around |
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spanish flu social distancing - Google Search One dramatic example comes from Philadelphia where it was decided to hold a patriotic parade whereas for example St. Louis cancelled their parade. National Geographic did a nice job explaining how social distancing seems to have help during 1918 including graphs showing at least in some cities how relaxing the rules too soon may have led to an upturn in new cases. I did scratch my head a bit at one sentence " This allowed time for vaccine development and lessened the strain on health care systems" The first flu vaccine was experimentally available in the late 1930's. I'm not sure helped anyone in the 1918 pandemic. |
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So, I think it is reasonable to conclude that the TOTAL number of deaths in the US this year may not be much more than an ordinary year. It's just that the cause of death on the death certificate will say "Coronavirus" instead of "Heart Disease", "Cancer", "Diabetes", etc. |
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And where do you imagine you’d find space for all of us with serious underlying serious medical conditions? How many states would we need to inhabit? How many folks would be willing to leave their homes and businesses so we ‘vulnerable’ people could move in to be isolated from everyone else?
I’m sorry, there are soo many flaws in this kind of thinking! Of course, there’s always the train of thought that we’re expendable anyway since we’re already either old, sick, or disabled. 😳😱 There’s no easy solution, no magic cure, so let’s all try to care about each other, observe the social distancing recommendations, and pray that the scientists will come up with therapeutics and a vaccine since we’re likely to see a recurrence of this virus in a mutated form. The pill may be bitter to swallow, but the cure will be worth waiting for, if not for ourselves, but for the generations who follow. May God keep each and everyone safe! |
Although I agree with your logic I think you should make a NUMBERED prediction on the folks your idea would actually kill and if you would be one of the dead.
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1% of 350 million is 3.5 million dead .... is that what you want ?
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That's the approach that Sweden is taking.
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So happy that the OP isn't making the decisions that would most likely kill me.
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Current prediction for total deaths in the US by IHME is 87k
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complex problems generally require complex solutions. Usually simple solutions have inadvertent dominoes that fall.
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Nice to here some level headed facts and thoughts without fear for a change, thank you for posting.
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