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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Is Our Current Approach to Coronavirus the Quickest Way to Cure the Problem? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/our-current-approach-coronavirus-quickest-way-cure-problem-304957/)

dlb8159@yahoo.com 04-07-2020 07:29 AM

So which one are you? Isolated or out and about.

HelenLCSW 04-07-2020 07:36 AM

You are right
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by skarra (Post 1741756)
I like to listen to the experts ... Dr Fauci and Dr Birx, plus Bill Gates - all seem to be in agreement that the path we're on is the right one (just wish we could successfully implement it nationwide).

I think over time we will get more data which will enable us to make better decisions. And let us hope it doesn't last 2 years which is what happened in 1918-1920.

We have to support our hospital staff right now. They are the soldiers in this war and are the real heroes. I am in awe of what they are dealing with - many of them are dying as a result. They want us to stay home, so let's support our "troops" as they fight this war.

You are right —if we had all listened to those experts and immediately self isolated, we would be ahead of the curve, not behind it😔

huange@verizon.net 04-07-2020 07:36 AM

CDC Data for the U.S -2017
Leading Causes of Death:
Heart disease: 647,457.
Cancer: 599,108.
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936.
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201.
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383.
Alzheimer's disease: 121,404.
Diabetes: 83,564.
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672.
More items...
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention › nchs › fastats

The reason the above deaths did not get the mass hysteria is because the deaths were spread out over an entire year (2017). I speculate that Covid-19 deaths will be less than from influenza and pneumonia, but because of the condensed time frame of the virus outbreak, there’s a need to spread out the cases.

Klatu 04-07-2020 07:37 AM

Being quarantined is frustrating to many people. One of its byproducts is suggesting other methods of dealing with the virus that won't confine people. One of those is the herd immunity strategy.

For it to work, we would have to, as a society, decide we will let lots of people die (including the young since they are not completely immune) and isolate the elderly in their homes for as long as it takes to develop a vaccine.

We can put as smooth a gloss on it as we think is needed, but that is a cruel method of dealing with the problem. I think it goes against our instincts to protect the most vulnerable among us. It says to the young (anyone under 65): "Go about your business. Some of you will die, from the virus or from not being able to get into a hospital, but the rest of us will develop immunity." And to the old: "Stay indoors, because there will be no room for you at the hospitals if you catch the virus."

That is an approach that looks attractive to anyone that thinks they are unlikely to either be locked up or unfortunate enough to catch it and die.

Jimbo120 04-07-2020 07:44 AM

I think your article was great, but a dumb question... if herd immunity is the answer, why has it not worked for the flu? Many people contract it and die each year.

Also, I think our political news system will make it very hard for any politician to vote for the quick approach.

TNLAKEPANDA 04-07-2020 07:48 AM

News Flash

In South Korea people who have gotten the virus and recovered has later tested positive again!

Better that you never get it and hope foe a vaccine 💉

Schmuckerron 04-07-2020 07:49 AM

A solid plan
N would require a crystal ball.

blube 04-07-2020 07:50 AM

Totally agree. I would be glad to stay home so that those who need to work can work.

blube 04-07-2020 07:51 AM

60% may already have had the disease; we don't know.

davem4616 04-07-2020 07:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dcurrie947 (Post 1741817)
Why hasn't anyone suggested everyone wear something over their face? If the virus enters thru the nose or mouth doesn't it make sense if everyone was covered when they left the house this thing would be gone in a short period of time?


I believe that this has been recommended (albeit just recently)

theruizs 04-07-2020 07:56 AM

Present this idea to the doctors and nurses dealing with this right now. If they are on board with it (the current nightmare times 2 or 3) then you have a better argument. Also, since this virus hits 65 and older and those with underlying conditions hardest (much higher death rate among them), I think they should have some input too. Finally, I find it hard to believe that letting the virus run rampant will be less disruptive and destructive to our economy. Have you seen the death rates in those countries where it gets out of control? Italy’s is over 12%, Spain’s is almost 10%. However, Germany’ is less than 2% (we should follow their lead since ours is approaching 3%). At any rate, I still value life over money any day. Given everything I have read and heard, I believe a better solution to getting this under control quickly is for it to become mandatory for everyone to wear face masks anytime they are not in their home, period.

Bonnevie 04-07-2020 08:06 AM

I believe Boris Johnson advocated herd immunity early on.....willing shook hands with everyone.....

Maxsan 04-07-2020 08:07 AM

Herd immunity
 
Please think of this. With isolation in place hospitals are being over whelmed. We may well loose a large portion of our health care workers, worsening the problem. The dose you receive dictates how severe of a case you will experience, the two young Chinese doctors who discovered the virus have died, age is not as critical as amount of exposure. The virus has much less of a chance of spreading via plastic, cardboard, cloth, etc than it does with droplets....sneezing coughing. It is a terrible experience to isolate but a far greater experience to become infected.

moe1212 04-07-2020 08:13 AM

Vaccines are marginally successful at best / stay fit / vitamin C / Zinc / good multi

kendi 04-07-2020 08:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C. C. Rider (Post 1741699)
I know there are many threads on the coronavirus problem, but please allow me to start one to discuss just one specific aspect of this. I recently read in another thread here a comment to the effect that if we will just stick rigorously to our social distancing practices and practice good handwashing and the like, that we will be over this problem quicker.

While that may sound logical and correct, I don't believe that it is. In fact, if you will recall, the whole idea behind shutting things down and maintaining social distancing was to drag this process out for many months so as not to have too many cases at one time which would overwhelm our hospital resources. In other words, we wanted to "flatten" the curve, not have a short, sharp, high curve.

The quickest way to be rid of the CV problem would be to make no changes in our everyday habits, let people catch the virus, and then have about 99% of them recover and thereby build herd immunity rather quickly. The problem with this approach is that fatalities would likely be higher in the near term because the number of seriously ill patients would overwhelm our hospital system.

So, the powers that be chose the approach that would drag this situation out for a much longer period of time. While this approach would likely be easier to handle from a healthcare perspective, it will undoubtedly extend the time that we are dealing with the disease to a much, much longer period of time.

The drawback to this approach is that the disease doesn't really go away, it just spreads at a much slower rate and therefore takes a much longer period of time for our country to build a sizeable herd immunity. If we were able to go about our ordinary lives while slowing down the spread of the virus, that would be great, but unfortunately we can't.

So, I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but I'm concerned that this "social distancing" and shutting down of all non-essential businesses may be with us a LOT longer than many people think. In fact, the better we are at self distancing, the longer the situation will likely last.

So it appears that we either stay the course for many months or resume life as usual in a few weeks and see a rapid return of many sick people. The only bright light that I can see in the "slow" approach that was chosen is that it may buy us some time in the hopes that a cure may be found quickly. I certainly hope so.

There is one other alternative, but it's not popular in many circles... and that is to isolate the most vulnerable (the aged, the immune compromised, etc) and let the rest of the country go back to work. Personally, that's the approach that I think should have been taken from the start, but many people think otherwise.

I hope everyone stays well. I just wanted to present the choices as I see them.

Thanks

Interesting thoughts and you may be on target. I wonder if we really would build a herd immunity though. There doesn’t seem to be one with the seasonal flu. Nor was there one for polio and other diseases. Plus it seems to me the severity of the symptoms for some with Coronavirus needs to be taken into account.

Ken Traverse 04-07-2020 08:21 AM

Thank you George Orwell.

oneclickplus 04-07-2020 08:24 AM

Yes, that is the most logical way to get this over with. The cost is more deaths than with the "slow" method. Even isolating the most vulnerable would not be enough to mitigate this trade off. While they might be "safer", more deaths of those not classified as "most vulnerable" will occur by forging ahead and getting this over with.

I say forge ahead with business as usual. Why? Is it because I don't care about saving lives? No. Those who want to "risk" being part of the group that gets the virus and hopefully recovers can just go back to work now. Those who prefer the slow method can just stay home and isolate themselves. What am I missing with that logic? Tens of millions of people get the flu vaccine each year to protect themselves. I personally choose not to get the vaccine. It's my choice to take that risk. The same logic applies here.

riamd1954 04-07-2020 08:28 AM

Agree!! If you can go food shopping and let’s face your not maintaining 6 feet all the time ?? Then why can’t we start people going back to work?? Also it has been said ftom the beginning the elderly and immunocompromised stay in and then allow schools remain open and work ??? Theses are just thought I’ve heard from a lot of different people!!

gatorbill1 04-07-2020 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C. C. Rider (Post 1741699)
I know there are many threads on the coronavirus problem, but please allow me to start one to discuss just one specific aspect of this. I recently read in another thread here a comment to the effect that if we will just stick rigorously to our social distancing practices and practice good handwashing and the like, that we will be over this problem quicker.

While that may sound logical and correct, I don't believe that it is. In fact, if you will recall, the whole idea behind shutting things down and maintaining social distancing was to drag this process out for many months so as not to have too many cases at one time which would overwhelm our hospital resources. In other words, we wanted to "flatten" the curve, not have a short, sharp, high curve.

The quickest way to be rid of the CV problem would be to make no changes in our everyday habits, let people catch the virus, and then have about 99% of them recover and thereby build herd immunity rather quickly. The problem with this approach is that fatalities would likely be higher in the near term because the number of seriously ill patients would overwhelm our hospital system.

So, the powers that be chose the approach that would drag this situation out for a much longer period of time. While this approach would likely be easier to handle from a healthcare perspective, it will undoubtedly extend the time that we are dealing with the disease to a much, much longer period of time.

The drawback to this approach is that the disease doesn't really go away, it just spreads at a much slower rate and therefore takes a much longer period of time for our country to build a sizeable herd immunity. If we were able to go about our ordinary lives while slowing down the spread of the virus, that would be great, but unfortunately we can't.

So, I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but I'm concerned that this "social distancing" and shutting down of all non-essential businesses may be with us a LOT longer than many people think. In fact, the better we are at self distancing, the longer the situation will likely last.

So it appears that we either stay the course for many months or resume life as usual in a few weeks and see a rapid return of many sick people. The only bright light that I can see in the "slow" approach that was chosen is that it may buy us some time in the hopes that a cure may be found quickly. I certainly hope so.

There is one other alternative, but it's not popular in many circles... and that is to isolate the most vulnerable (the aged, the immune compromised, etc) and let the rest of the country go back to work. Personally, that's the approach that I think should have been taken from the start, but many people think otherwise.

I hope everyone stays well. I just wanted to present the choices as I see them.

Thanks

You are killing me - literally

golfing eagles 04-07-2020 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trshannon@aol.com (Post 1741883)
Vaccines are marginally successful at best / stay fit / vitamin C / Zinc / good multi

Marginally???? As in 83-99% effective depending on the vaccine.

I'm glad I've been vaccinated against polio, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, measles, mumps, and rubella, as well as a flu shot every year for 40+ years, and of historical significance, smallpox.

You take your vitamin C and zinc, let me know how that works out for you:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

PS: Don't step on any rusty nails or visit any third world countries where polio is still around

blueash 04-07-2020 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheiro (Post 1741827)
During the Great Flu of 1918, there was no such thing as social distancing or even a vaccine. So, the disease was free to infect virtually everyone in the world and everyone got sick. ...

One of the history lessons used to support the use of social distancing, in fact, was the success of social distancing in the 1918 flu. While the organism causing that pandemic was not identified, it was apparent that it spread from person to person especially in closed spaces. You might click any of the hits on this

spanish flu social distancing - Google Search

One dramatic example comes from Philadelphia where it was decided to hold a patriotic parade whereas for example St. Louis cancelled their parade.

National Geographic did a nice job explaining how social distancing seems to have help during 1918 including graphs showing at least in some cities how relaxing the rules too soon may have led to an upturn in new cases. I did scratch my head a bit at one sentence " This allowed time for vaccine development and lessened the strain on health care systems" The first flu vaccine was experimentally available in the late 1930's. I'm not sure helped anyone in the 1918 pandemic.

C. C. Rider 04-07-2020 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by huange@verizon.net (Post 1741846)
CDC Data for the U.S -2017
Leading Causes of Death:
Heart disease: 647,457.
Cancer: 599,108.
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936.
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201.
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383.
Alzheimer's disease: 121,404.
Diabetes: 83,564.
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672.
More items...
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention › nchs › fastats

The reason the above deaths did not get the mass hysteria is because the deaths were spread out over an entire year (2017). I speculate that Covid-19 deaths will be less than from influenza and pneumonia, but because of the condensed time frame of the virus outbreak, there’s a need to spread out the cases.

That's 2 Million deaths per year just in the categories you listed. And the majority of those deaths listed would be considered as "immune compromised" categories which is precisely the ones that are most susceptible to dying from coronavirus.

So, I think it is reasonable to conclude that the TOTAL number of deaths in the US this year may not be much more than an ordinary year. It's just that the cause of death on the death certificate will say "Coronavirus" instead of "Heart Disease", "Cancer", "Diabetes", etc.

Starfire 04-07-2020 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby (Post 1741735)
Just make sure to write your obit before locking yourself in a school gym with all your pals who are willing to sacrifice themselves for the sake of humanity.

I for one would prefer not to get sick in the first place, than to get sick and risk death while hoping to recover and become immune.

Everyone will get sick (unless you permanently become a hermit). It is just a matter of time (like the Flu). Current policy is to keep as many people alive as possible by not overloading the health care system. Hard to argue with that concept.

C. C. Rider 04-07-2020 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HelenLCSW (Post 1741845)
You are right —if we had all listened to those experts and immediately self isolated, we would be ahead of the curve, not behind it😔

If you look at those two curves (the high short one and the low long one), you'll see that the area under the curve represents the number of people killed. Both curves have approximately the same area under the curve. It's just that in one case the deaths will be grouped in a shorter time span than the other one.

Mary Windsor 04-07-2020 09:49 AM

And where do you imagine you’d find space for all of us with serious underlying serious medical conditions? How many states would we need to inhabit? How many folks would be willing to leave their homes and businesses so we ‘vulnerable’ people could move in to be isolated from everyone else?
I’m sorry, there are soo many flaws in this kind of thinking! Of course, there’s always the train of thought that we’re expendable anyway since we’re already either old, sick, or disabled. 😳😱
There’s no easy solution, no magic cure, so let’s all try to care about each other, observe the social distancing recommendations, and pray that the scientists will come up with therapeutics and a vaccine since we’re likely to see a recurrence of this virus in a mutated form. The pill may be bitter to swallow, but the cure will be worth waiting for, if not for ourselves, but for the generations who follow.
May God keep each and everyone safe!

jfkilduff 04-07-2020 09:51 AM

Although I agree with your logic I think you should make a NUMBERED prediction on the folks your idea would actually kill and if you would be one of the dead.
Quote:

Originally Posted by C. C. Rider (Post 1741699)
I know there are many threads on the coronavirus problem, but please allow me to start one to discuss just one specific aspect of this. I recently read in another thread here a comment to the effect that if we will just stick rigorously to our social distancing practices and practice good handwashing and the like, that we will be over this problem quicker.

While that may sound logical and correct, I don't believe that it is. In fact, if you will recall, the whole idea behind shutting things down and maintaining social distancing was to drag this process out for many months so as not to have too many cases at one time which would overwhelm our hospital resources. In other words, we wanted to "flatten" the curve, not have a short, sharp, high curve.

The quickest way to be rid of the CV problem would be to make no changes in our everyday habits, let people catch the virus, and then have about 99% of them recover and thereby build herd immunity rather quickly. The problem with this approach is that fatalities would likely be higher in the near term because the number of seriously ill patients would overwhelm our hospital system.

So, the powers that be chose the approach that would drag this situation out for a much longer period of time. While this approach would likely be easier to handle from a healthcare perspective, it will undoubtedly extend the time that we are dealing with the disease to a much, much longer period of time.

The drawback to this approach is that the disease doesn't really go away, it just spreads at a much slower rate and therefore takes a much longer period of time for our country to build a sizeable herd immunity. If we were able to go about our ordinary lives while slowing down the spread of the virus, that would be great, but unfortunately we can't.

So, I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but I'm concerned that this "social distancing" and shutting down of all non-essential businesses may be with us a LOT longer than many people think. In fact, the better we are at self distancing, the longer the situation will likely last.

So it appears that we either stay the course for many months or resume life as usual in a few weeks and see a rapid return of many sick people. The only bright light that I can see in the "slow" approach that was chosen is that it may buy us some time in the hopes that a cure may be found quickly. I certainly hope so.

There is one other alternative, but it's not popular in many circles... and that is to isolate the most vulnerable (the aged, the immune compromised, etc) and let the rest of the country go back to work. Personally, that's the approach that I think should have been taken from the start, but many people think otherwise.

I hope everyone stays well. I just wanted to present the choices as I see them.

Thanks


C. C. Rider 04-07-2020 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mary Windsor (Post 1741971)
And where do you imagine you’d find space for all of us with serious underlying serious medical conditions? How many states would we need to inhabit? How many folks would be willing to leave their homes and businesses so we ‘vulnerable’ people could move in to be isolated from everyone else?

How about in your own home? If it's going to work for the "social distancing" plan, it should work for the "Isolate the Vulnerable" plan. However, if you're currently sleeping on a sidewalk in a cardboard box, then you might have a problem with either plan.

Drdoug49 04-07-2020 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Topspinmo (Post 1741834)
They wear masks cause the live in over populated ____ hole. They are slimmer cause they have little to eat after they ravaged land and sea. Riding around is carts HAS NOTHING to do with it. Majority of population NOT part of the elite like you, they are surviving. But, you probably live in the 1% area right?

Asia has made substantial increases in their standard of living, so your characterization is false. In regards to the overweight TV , the average Korean women weighs 125lbs, the average American women weighs 168lbs.

Rooklift 04-07-2020 10:13 AM

1% of 350 million is 3.5 million dead .... is that what you want ?

BettyBoop1952 04-07-2020 10:14 AM

That's the approach that Sweden is taking.

bumpygreens 04-07-2020 10:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cheiro (Post 1741827)
During the Great Flu of 1918, there was no such thing as social distancing or even a vaccine. So, the disease was free to infect virtually everyone in the world and everyone got sick. The result was the death of 50 million people which amounted to 1/5 of the population. Today that statistic would translate to 1,400,000,000 (1.4 Billion) deaths. Do I hear any volunteers?

The population of the world in 1918 was about 1.8 billion. 50 million people amounts to about 2.7 percent of the population. Translated to today that would mean about 200 million people.:ohdear:

golfing eagles 04-07-2020 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rooklift (Post 1741989)
1% of 350 million is 3.5 million dead .... is that what you want ?

Which assume 100% of the population (more like 330 million) get infected, which never happens. Then you assume a 1% mortality rate, which is true at the moment, but if we tested everyone (not practical), that rate would be quite a bit lower. Still serious and tragic, but not the end of the world

JoMar 04-07-2020 10:40 AM

So happy that the OP isn't making the decisions that would most likely kill me.

miharris 04-07-2020 10:43 AM

Current prediction for total deaths in the US by IHME is 87k

golfing eagles 04-07-2020 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miharris (Post 1742019)
Current prediction for total deaths in the US by IHME is 87k

or about 20% more than a bad flu season. A lot of predictions are in the 120-200,000 range, but still not the end of the world

Johnarch 04-07-2020 11:17 AM

complex problems generally require complex solutions. Usually simple solutions have inadvertent dominoes that fall.

NFRicaS 04-07-2020 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby (Post 1741735)
Just make sure to write your obit before locking yourself in a school gym with all your pals who are willing to sacrifice themselves for the sake of humanity.

I for one would prefer not to get sick in the first place, than to get sick and risk death while hoping to recover and become immune.

Good answer!! The United Kingdom originally thought to do that “herd immunity” approach, but then realized that was a BAD idea. So, even if you het a mild case, great, but the hospitals are overrun with the serious cases, so when you are out on the golf course and get a cut that needs stitches, or have a heart attack, guess what? Too bad for you...infection or death probably awaits you, because the HOSPITALS have no time for you, no bed, not enough help...stay home, yes, it’s a long time, but it beats the hell out of the alternative!!

Lindamct 04-07-2020 11:40 AM

Nice to here some level headed facts and thoughts without fear for a change, thank you for posting.

DianeM 04-07-2020 11:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drdoug49 (Post 1741983)
Asia has made substantial increases in their standard of living, so your characterization is false. In regards to the overweight TV , the average Korean women weighs 125lbs, the average American women weighs 168lbs.

Yes American women are heavier. We’re also generally several inches taller with larger bone structure.

HMLRHT1 04-07-2020 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by C. C. Rider (Post 1741699)
I know there are many threads on the coronavirus problem, but please allow me to start one to discuss just one specific aspect of this. I recently read in another thread here a comment to the effect that if we will just stick rigorously to our social distancing practices and practice good handwashing and the like, that we will be over this problem quicker.

While that may sound logical and correct, I don't believe that it is. In fact, if you will recall, the whole idea behind shutting things down and maintaining social distancing was to drag this process out for many months so as not to have too many cases at one time which would overwhelm our hospital resources. In other words, we wanted to "flatten" the curve, not have a short, sharp, high curve.

The quickest way to be rid of the CV problem would be to make no changes in our everyday habits, let people catch the virus, and then have about 99% of them recover and thereby build herd immunity rather quickly. The problem with this approach is that fatalities would likely be higher in the near term because the number of seriously ill patients would overwhelm our hospital system.

So, the powers that be chose the approach that would drag this situation out for a much longer period of time. While this approach would likely be easier to handle from a healthcare perspective, it will undoubtedly extend the time that we are dealing with the disease to a much, much longer period of time.

The drawback to this approach is that the disease doesn't really go away, it just spreads at a much slower rate and therefore takes a much longer period of time for our country to build a sizeable herd immunity. If we were able to go about our ordinary lives while slowing down the spread of the virus, that would be great, but unfortunately we can't.

So, I don't mean to be the bearer of bad news, but I'm concerned that this "social distancing" and shutting down of all non-essential businesses may be with us a LOT longer than many people think. In fact, the better we are at self distancing, the longer the situation will likely last.

So it appears that we either stay the course for many months or resume life as usual in a few weeks and see a rapid return of many sick people. The only bright light that I can see in the "slow" approach that was chosen is that it may buy us some time in the hopes that a cure may be found quickly. I certainly hope so.

There is one other alternative, but it's not popular in many circles... and that is to isolate the most vulnerable (the aged, the immune compromised, etc) and let the rest of the country go back to work. Personally, that's the approach that I think should have been taken from the start, but many people think otherwise.

I hope everyone stays well. I just wanted to present the choices as I see them.

Thanks

You bring up some points that I feel needs to be addressed. In short, the idea about continuing life as normal would ultimately be a disaster. With everyone who ended up sick from the virus as well as the normal trauma that happens on a daily basis in most metropolitan areas, you would have a doubling or more of those who would die. As it stands now there is almost a non existence of trauma and normal severe medical emergencies because most people are at home. So if you leave everything the way it was on a daily basis and then throw the virus victims on top of that there would be a catastrophic event in every hot spot that would definitely impact everyone’s daily life and the economy. The federal government brought the USN Comfort to NY city. Home of the gangs and shooting and drugs and much more every day. Yet the USN Comfort was not getting any patients that were non Covid-19 so they decided to use it for COVID-19 cases. Now take life as usual and add that to the equation.


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