[mikeycereal]

Originally Posted by biker1

The center of the circulation will not go over The Villages but the wind field is broad. The track of the center of the circulation will be well south of us. While we will see some gusts, the probability of sustained hurricane force winds is on the order of 5-10% according to the NHC.

Checked Windy: Wind map & weather forecast this morning and it shows the cone has moved south of the Villages. Orlando is still inside the cone but close to where we were yesterday. And instead of it going from a cat 3 to a 2 as it passes below us it has changed to 2-1. So if accurate we appear to be dodging another one, but I'd still keep looking at updates today. We have a river flood warning and my house is about half a mile from Lake Okahumpka so I'm concerned on how high that will get. Getting the Kayak ready.

Edit: corrected the word track to cone.

[flash4353]

Wanna bet?

[biker1]

The NHC track has been south of us for a few days. On Sunday, there were a few model results that had the center of the circulation in our vicinity but the cone of possibilities was quite wide. Sustained 30-35 mph winds for about 12 hours is certainly possibility.

Originally Posted by mikeycereal

Checked Windy: Wind map & weather forecast this morning and it shows the track has moved south of the Villages. Orlando is still inside the track but close to where we were yesterday. And instead of it going from a cat 3 to a 2 as it passes below us it has changed to 2-1. So if accurate we appear to be dodging another one, but I'd still keep looking at updates today. We have a river flood warning and my house is about half a mile from Lake Okahumpka so I'm concerned on how high that will get. Getting the Kayak ready.

[Ptmcbriz]

Old cranky and jaded outlook. When a hurricane has a center measured below 900, you better be paying attention. Thank goodness it is forecasted a little farther south than ordinarily forecasted. Good for us, bad for others. Still gusts of 80mph here can take shingles off and caused many things you’ll have to fix. Pay attention and be ready for any changes. The key to emergencies is to expect the unexpected. Mother Nature like to out guess you.

[CybrSage]

There have been only 7 actual tornados at landfall that hit New England since 1908. Of those, the highest Category at al small was a 3.
In the last 24 years, there have been only 3 tornados that all were tropical storms by landfall.

Since 2004, Florida was hit with 1 Cat 5, 5 Cat 4, and 5 Cat 3 hurricanes at landfall. This does not include Milton.

The hurricanes that hit New England are little babies compared to those that hit Florida. No need to pretend otherwise, we all know this.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Originally Posted by CybrSage

There have been only 7 actual tornados at landfall that hit New England since 1908. Of those, the highest Category at al small was a 3.
In the last 24 years, there have been only 3 tornados that all were tropical storms by landfall.

Since 2004, Florida was hit with 1 Cat 5, 5 Cat 4, and 5 Cat 3 hurricanes at landfall. This does not include Milton.

The tornados that hit New England are little babies compared to those that hit Florida. No need to pretend otherwise, we all know this.

Tornados??
That being said, just one experience near the eyewall of a Cat3 will change minds.
(if you were to survive it)

[mikeycereal]

Originally Posted by biker1

The NHC track has been south of us for a few days. On Sunday, there were a few model results that had the center of the circulation in our vicinity but the cone of possibilities was quite wide. Sustained 30-35 mph winds for about 12 hours is certainly possibility.

I corrected the word track to cone since I was referring to the upper edge of it which had moved south. I saw that the center was below us for the last few days. Don't want to confuse anyone.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by flash4353

Wanna bet?

The over/under is 10 .... if you don't count Lt. Dan in his 20' sailboat.

[Margefrog]

I read hoarders (but somehow couldn't repy there) and your comment here. The comment on "hoarders" is unnecessarily harsh. Using gas here isn't taking from those on I-75, etc. If it would, we whould have been told and would have complied. People gassed up in case of their need, and maybe to be able to drive to devasted sights with supplies, just as we prepped our properties re flying objects to protect ourselves and others.
Yes, most of us have been thru numerous weather challenges. That doesn't mean we should ignore this humongous storm, especially the elderly with physical challenges.
Lighten up guys.

[Velvet]

Originally Posted by Margefrog

I read hoarders (but somehow couldn't repy there) and your comment here. The comment on "hoarders" is unnecessarily harsh. Using gas here isn't taking from those on I-75, etc. If it would, we whould have been told and would have complied. People gassed up in case of their need, and maybe to be able to drive to devasted sights with supplies, just as we prepped our properties re flying objects to protect ourselves and others.
Yes, most of us have been thru numerous weather challenges. That doesn't mean we should ignore this humongous storm, especially the elderly with physical challenges.
Lighten up guys.

Yes, I couldn’t reply either. I was challenged about the anti-siphon protection of modern car gas tanks and couldn’t mention that it is relatively easy to by-pass it and I have the pump but this is a public forum so perhaps I shouldn’t say more about it.

[Byte1]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

14 threads currently running about Milton.

Get out of town. Board up the windows. Fill your bathtub with water. Fill your clothes dryer with ice. Hoard toilet paper.

As we say up north, "is this your first time on skates"?

Is this your first hurricane? Can't be, if you've lived in TV or Florida for more than a year or two. Where did you live before coming to Florida? Weather hasn't affected your life at some point?

New England has been hit with 71 Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, since I was born in 1953. One a year for me.

There have been 18 direct Hurricane hits in New England, since 1953. One every 4 years.

Close to 70 times in the last 70 years, Boston has been hit with a snow storm, dumping over 24" of snow in a 24 hour period. Worcester has been hit over 100 times in the last 70 years.

Doesn't the Midwest ever get bad weather?

Over the last 30 years, an average of 48 people per year, die from Hurricanes in the USA (136 if you include floods). Statistically, a non-event. (Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics)

The Villages is nearly 50 miles from the coast and probably has the most sophisticated drainage system in the USA.

Over-react much? Don't drive your golf cart through a flooded tunnel, you'll be fine. Friday is supposed to be 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

I know this isn't going to change anyone's mind or behavior, but this Chicken Little "the sky is falling" stuff is getting tedious.

Tell that to the folks in Asheville. Yes, the Villages has done pretty well when it comes to bad weather.....BUT there is always that one time and if folks want to be prepared, go for it. I've had home owners insurance on every home I have owned and have never/NEVER made a claim. Why have insurance if you never need it? BECAUSE, there is always that one chance you WILL need it. If folks want to be prepared for emergencies, leave them be. Do we laugh at apocalypse preppers? I don't get the Flu shot, but I don't laugh at those that do get them.
You said there are 14 hurricane threads? You made it 15, right?

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by Byte1

ocalypse preppers? I don't get the Flu shot, but I don't laugh at those that do get them.
You said there are 14 hurricane threads? You made it 15, right?

No.

There were 14 threads on Hurricane Milton.

This thread was specific to people over-reacting and acting like the sky was falling, in response to a fairly typical, overly hyped weather condition, predicted to occur in a distant part of the state.

[Byte1]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

No.

There were 14 threads on Hurricane Milton.

This thread was specific to people over-reacting and acting like the sky was falling, in response to a fairly typical, overly hyped weather condition, predicted to occur in a distant part of the state.

Hmmm, this thread DOES sound like it is related to the hurricane. I didn't see anything about dog poop, EV cars burning up in salt water, or gate arms being taken down in preparation for rain. "Over-reacting?" Please define "over-reacting."

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by Byte1

Please define "over-reacting."

Do you ever evacuate from The Villages with an approaching storm?

Milton options within The Villages

Driving to the TV after hurricane.

Milton will be a Hurricane

how much weight can 100 mph topple?

Is your EV part of your emergency plan

Newbie Hurricane question

Gas Buddy Reports

This might save your life!

Doomscrollers Surge Cam in Sarasota

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

Roof Awareness - Hurricane Milton - SkyLight Roofing Villages💚

I hope all the hoarders are happy

Scary stuff

Most trusted meteorologist for The Villages specifically?

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

14 threads currently running about Milton.

Get out of town. Board up the windows. Fill your bathtub with water. Fill your clothes dryer with ice. Hoard toilet paper.

As we say up north, "is this your first time on skates"?

Is this your first hurricane? Can't be, if you've lived in TV or Florida for more than a year or two. Where did you live before coming to Florida? Weather hasn't affected your life at some point?

New England has been hit with 71 Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, since I was born in 1953. One a year for me.

There have been 18 direct Hurricane hits in New England, since 1953. One every 4 years.

Close to 70 times in the last 70 years, Boston has been hit with a snow storm, dumping over 24" of snow in a 24 hour period. Worcester has been hit over 100 times in the last 70 years.

Doesn't the Midwest ever get bad weather?

Over the last 30 years, an average of 48 people per year, die from Hurricanes in the USA (136 if you include floods). Statistically, a non-event. (Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics)

The Villages is nearly 50 miles from the coast and probably has the most sophisticated drainage system in the USA.

Over-react much? Don't drive your golf cart through a flooded tunnel, you'll be fine. Friday is supposed to be 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

I know this isn't going to change anyone's mind or behavior, but this Chicken Little "the sky is falling" stuff is getting tedious.

You made a good point basically about people NOT panicking. The Villages is located on what looks like the BETTER side of Milton (the north side). If Milton comes in at Sarasota we will be in luck and probably just get some rain and some mild winds. What COULD BE a problem even a DEADLY problem is the possible TORNADOES that are forming around the state even now (Wed morning). So, I think that it is ONLY NATURAL for people here in TV Land to have some amount of ANXIETY.
.....Another point is that these 2 hurricanes are different from some past hurricanes because the Gulf is warmer (record warmer) which lets them develop faster and stronger than in the past. And the population of Florida has grown rapidly in the last 5 years. It looks like it may hit Sarasota and go through densely populated areas. The property damage costs could be record high and the loss of human life could be equally high.