[Goldwingnut]

I saw the response below to a previous post of mine and I thought I would share my thoughts on growth. I have no obligation or loyalty to The Villages developer beyond the same responsibilities I have towards each and every resident and business in Sumter County, my thoughts and opinions below, come from looking at things from a business perspective and as a resident of the county and our community.

Originally Posted by Tvflguy

Don, we watched off YouTube on our 86” flatscreen. Wow. Simply amazing how they continue on and on. Mind boggling construction expanding TV further…. When will it stop???

When we moved into our newly built house in Gilchrist in 2014 there was semi-serious talk re Buildout. No further expansion South of 44.

Not complaining but the stress on various utilities and roads will compound. Traffic will be tough, esp from non-TV expansion across our borders.

Don, great job as always. Nothing like your birds-eye views and commentary!!!

I aways love this question and it many variations. Here's my take on it.

First, the developer isn't short sighted, and they know where this community is going and where they will build many years in advance.

They are very good businesspeople and know how to make a profitable business – this is not a sin or something evil, it is exactly how each of us were able to be here, we made a profit in what we were doing for a living and saved some of it for retirement. A business exists to make a profit by providing a commodity that someone else wants.

Some of the keys to being profitable in business are knowing your customer, having a desirable product that people want, these they obviously mastered. Cost containment and pricing are also key factors to success. For this discussion, “knowing where your customers are” is the point to delve into.

For Brownwood to be successful as a business location it must be surrounded by its customer base, just like Lake Sumter Landing and Spanish Springs. As we see it today with the building of Richmond, St. Johns, and beyond, that is certainly the case. Had this not been planned all along and they were truly going to stop at SR44, Brownwood would likely be located where the Turman and Roosevelt executive courses are today.

Brownwood’s current location would have been a mistake when it was chosen over 25 years ago (watch the next 30 seconds of this video https://youtu.be/_GHKaJd-wKk?t=133 ) had they not been planning to move south of SR44. The problem was zoning, south of SR44 wasn’t zoned for this kind of development and until it was, Brownwood’s location was a huge gamble because it was out in the middle of nowhere Sumter County. Planning something like The Villages is multifaceted task that has to not only look at moving dirt, buying lumber and shingles, and building houses, it also requires looking at the economics of not only the end results but the process as it impact the local and regional economies, and understanding how to use that in the planning and long term goal process. Until many of the necessary things became solidified, “stopping at SR44” was a valid and true statement; they just weren’t showing their hold cards and what they were working on in the background.

I’ll sidetrack for just a minute here to the topic of “stopping at CR466A” that I’ve heard many were told or promised. This was pure ignorance for anyone to say or believe, and for some it was just dishonesty to hype sales. Let me explain, CDD5 was established on 3/19/2002 as the first CDD south of CR466, then on 2/10/2004 CDD6 was established, by 9/28/2004 CDD9 and CDD10 were established. The first homes built south of CR466 didn’t happen until sometime in 2004. So, if you bought south of CR466 and were told they’re not building south of CR466A, there was either ignorance or willful misinformation by the person providing the information, at the plans for south of CR466A were already well in progress.

Now back to SR44. As The Villages grew and progressed southward, it not only created new homes and communities that brought with it new commercial enterprises and a thriving economy, it also established and very strong construction industry that currently numbers in the 12-15,000 jobs for Sumter and surrounding counties. This growth created a growing and prosperous economy and tax base. A little long-term planning and thinking by civic leaders saw this growth as Lemmings running off a cliff (actually a myth created by Disney), with the cliff being SR44. If The Villages were to “stop building” at SR44, the economy of Sumter and neighboring counties and cities would feel a huge negative impact from the loss of thousands of construction jobs. The developer recognized this and planned accordingly and quietly for this.

Along with the job losses would come plummeting property values, loss of may more jobs as the workers moved away and took with them their families. Family members that also held jobs in the area; medical workers, commercial establishments, restaurants, secondary construction, landscaping, and many more. If you think that it’s hard now to find people to work, imagine how much worse it would be if the 15,000 workers lost their jobs and moved away.

Not all of course would move away, some would stay, but with few jobs, unemployment would go through the roof and as history has shown us, crime would also spike with the unemployment. Crime picks the easy targets, in the case of The Villages that would be senior citizens and lots of unoccupied homes (snowbirds).

The economy, crime, and unemployment are three of the biggest issues civic leaders have to deal with, if they don’t deal with these first, there is no way do also deal with things like infrastructure, roads, schools, and the myriad of other issues on their plates.

It is a difficult and delicate task for civic leaders to balance all the needs of the community, one cannot favor businesses over residents or residents over businesses, one cannot take an unwavering position on an issue such as growth without directly impacting, negatively or positively, other issues such as home values or employment. A great amount of flexibility is needed, and each individual issue must be evaluated on its merits and overall long- and short-term impact. In the case allowing The Villages to continue building south of 44, this was a decision that had to be made to preserve the economy of the entire area. We can now see in hindsight that the developer foresaw and planned ahead for this decision.

Many have said that Harold Schwartz would not have done what is happening today, I say this is bunk. The timing of what is happening today goes back to the 90’s when Mr. Schwartz as alive and actively involved in the planning and future development of The Villages. What we see today is a part of and a continuation of his dream. I never met the man, but I have spoken to many who knew him personally and worked and did business with him, they all agree that his outward persona of being everyone’s friend was true and genuine, but when it came to business he was a shrewd and as hard charging any of today’s business giants, and that business always came first.

Now our civic leaders, at all levels, are dealing with and addressing the domino issues of these decisions: schools, roads, businesses, and many more. They can’t over react or plan too far in the future as they have to live withing budgets that by their very nature, lag behind the growth, incurring debt to “get ahead” of an issue often turns to folly and a waste of money. The counties and cities around us are investing and planning for the growth, much of it is very well thought out. The perception of some is that nothing is happening, hardly the case, sometimes the perception of “too much traffic” is simply more that it used to be but sill less than the current design capacities. Many times there are additional issues that the average resident doesn’t know of or understand that cannot be ignored or dismissed before an issue, perceived or otherwise, is addressed; in the case of roadways right-of-way ownership and drainage are two areas that stumbling blocks that must always be addressed first as well as budget restraints.

Concerning other infrastructure such as utilities, this is a joint effort between developers and municipalities. Wildwood is currently dealing with an aging wastewater processing system that is reaching capacity due to the city’s growth outside of The Villages component. New apartment complexes, home development, and business are stressing these resources and Wildwood’s leaders have recently taken positive and decisive steps to address these. Fortunately, Wildwood is spared much of the stress on these systems caused by the growth of The Villages as water related infrastructure is basically self-contained within the development. The building of the massive Gibson Wastewater Treatment facility at 501/470 to serve the areas south of Monarch Grove down to Middleton an beyond, being done by the developer without impact to Wildwood’s systems is an example of this. The cities of Coleman, Webster, Center Hill, and Bushnell are also addressing issues of continued growth, working with each other and the county to address current and plan for future needs.

Growth is inevitable, how we deal with it is important. I believe that our local governments are now in responsible and forward-thinking hands, looking out for the overall good of the community and not that of a few individuals or entities. Many local activists and those on social media would want you to think otherwise, a very myopic and self-indulgent opinion, and not based on any facts.

To the many who believe things have gotten too big I ask you, did it get too big the day before or the day after you arrived? If it is too big for you, the roads go in both directions, but remember, if you leave, wherever you go next, it too may be getting “too big” because of your arrival.

Obviously this is a complex and involved topic, I could continue on for many more hours typing on the topic, but I’ll stop for now.

Please, if you have specific questions of me related to actions and plans of Sumter County, I would ask that you direct them to my county email address or call my office at the county and not ask me to address them here. I’ll discuss general topics, some of my opinions, and historical issues here, but always with an eye to being in compliance with the Florida Sunshine Laws and public records keeping requirements.

[Bogie Shooter]

Don, you have made many positive contributions to TOTV over the years. This post is just another example.
Thank you, for sharing your knowledge and insight in the planning of our community.

[JohnN]

very interesting, thanks

[Altavia]

Excellent synthesis Don, truly an amazing story.

The continued innovation throughout the years is part of what brought is here.

[Stu from NYC]

Thank you very enlightening

[alwann]

Was building amenities first and then homes an effective strategy? If yes, why is south of 44 different?

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

There will come a point in time when the developers will say "we've decided we really don't want to expand further, we're kinda finished here." Some descendent of the Morse Family will say "Nah, I'm gonna be a doctor instead." And that'll be the end of development of The Villages. That will also be the day when all those construction jobs are cut off. It will happen, eventually. There is only so far the developer -can- develop. The state has edges, it's not infinite.

It's an upside down pyramid. The Developer is on the bottom, alone. Everyone else is spread out on top, in layer upon layer of responsibility and benefit. The moment the Developer says they're done, EVERYONE topples. The bigger the pile on top of them, the more disastrous the result.

As for your question - we moved into a pre-owned in the "Historic" section for precisely the reason that we wanted something that was lived-in and established. There wasn't enough money or perks in the world to convince us to move to the new sections. Even now that you've crossed Florida's Turnpike and 44, the furthest south I'd even consider would be the northern half of the O'Dell circle. And that'd be pretty iffy. It would definitely not be my first choice but I'd consider it, if we ever decided to move from our current location.

In addition, not everyone profited off their jobs and saved up to afford to live here. Many of us borrowed. Some of us are paying mortgages, and there are plenty of Villagers who still work for a living because they can't afford to retire yet, or aren't old enough for social security benefits yet, and never earned enough to invest like some of you have. Some of us were fortunate enough to have bought our northern homes at what was a reasonable price at the time - not as an investment, but as a home we lived in for 10+ years. And were equally fortunate to be able to sell that home for more than we paid for it - which wasn't a business decision, it's just how the market was at the time we ended up being forced to move when we lost our jobs due to company closures and a tight hiring environment in mostly-obsolete skilled trades. After paying off the balance of the mortgage, we had enough to pay a sizeable portion of our Florida home, but nowhere near the full amount.

I don't begrudge anyone for wanting something shiny and new to call their own in their retirement. But painting it all as the developer wanting to help the communities and keep people working - is disingenuous. The good news, is that SOME of those construction workers will still be needed to replace homes in the -northern- part of the Villages, as they start wearing down and need replacing. But if everyone working for the construction company (which has direct ties to the developer don't forget - so this is totally not a selfless act, the developer makes mega-bucks) is living in the southern-most areas, they're going to have the same kind of commute to get to work in the northern area, than they have now living 30+ miles from the current construction.

It isn't sustainable. At some point, the structure will crumble.

[Papa_lecki]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

There will come a point in time when the developers will say "we've decided we really don't want to expand further, we're kinda finished here." Some descendent of the Morse Family will say "Nah, I'm gonna be a doctor instead." And that'll be the end of development of The Villages.

The Villages companies are worth BILLIONS, believe me, someone will buy the company, once the grandkids decide they had enough - but I would guess that is not for another 20 or 30 years.

If the rumors are correct, the Villages owns enough land to build for 20 or 30 years. I have no way to validate that.

[FenneyFanatic]

Always the voice of reason..

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Papa_lecki

The Villages companies are worth BILLIONS, believe me, someone will buy the company, once the grandkids decide they had enough - but I would guess that is not for another 20 or 30 years.

If the rumors are correct, the Villages owns enough land to build for 20 or 30 years. I have no way to validate that.

They will keep building for more years than we will be around. They are making tons of money so why would anyone think they should or would stop building. Lots of open land in Florida and who really knows how much land they do own?

[spinner1001]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

But painting it all as the developer wanting to help the communities and keep people working - is disingenuous.

This is a straw man fallacy.
Straw Man Fallacy | Excelsior Online Writing Lab

Please stop. No one said the developer is doing things for only altruistic reasons, which is what you imply. That’s just silly.

The profit motive of capitalism does come with altruistic benefits. It has brought much of the world out of extreme poverty. Is it perfect? No, it has blemishes certainly. But other systems have performed worse.

It’s a time to celebrate. We live in the most prosperous and healthiest time in human history.

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

It isn't sustainable. At some point, the structure will crumble.

Nonsense. This is a similar argument that capitalism is not sustainable and will kill the planet. The argument is often made by anti-capitalists with socialist leanings. Again, capitalism has blemishes but things are very unlikely to collapse.

For those who want to learn more about whether capitalism is sustainable, here is a (long) lecture from a Duke University professor.
https://youtu.be/6dVSOIiO_U8

(I suspect that cherry picked counter examples are about to come.)

[Taltarzac725]

The number of seniors needing continued medical care will grow as the age of the Villagers increases. That will bring in more home care workers, nurses, physicians, social workers, physical therapists, and businesses to feed, cloth, transport, house and entertain them. As well as educate their kids.

Would put in the suggestion that the Villages needs at least two open movie theaters for this growing population.

The construction industry will reach a point where there are not many more new houses to build.

[Ecuadog]

Thank you, Don.

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by alwann

Was building amenities first and then homes an effective strategy? If yes, why is south of 44 different?

Really?

If you watch Don's videos, amenities continue to be built first...

[Bill14564]

I'm sorry, but this sounds a lot like Monday morning quaterbacking by a fan of the Developer. The Developer did this so it must have been planned and more, it must be a good thing.

There is too much to cover and I don't have the motivation to do the research so just a couple of thoughts:

- The Developer did not own the land south of 44 and had no reason to believe they would acquire the land. Stating that there would be no development south of 44 was an assumption but it was a reasonable assumption. It is certainly likely that the Developer desired to continue building (that's their business after all) but it wasn't a certainty that they would be able to.

- If Brownwood could not exist without all the development south of 44 then how can Spanish Springs exist without miles and miles of development north of 441?

- The restaurants and the square in Brownwood seemed busy four years ago before most of the homes south of 44 existed; it didn't seem like it was going out of business. Now, Brownwood seems overcrowded and many of us are hoping that Sawgrass takes off and Eastport is built soon to relieve the pressure.