[miharris]

Update for April 25, 2020

Tri-county area:

Total cases: 534
New cases: 6 - up 1.12%
% of population diagnosed with C-19: 0.062%

Fatalities: 26
New: 2
Total fatalities as a % of total population: 0.003%


Sumter county:

Total cases: 167
New cases: 1
% of population diagnosed with C-19: 0.019%

Total fatalities: 12
New fatalities: 0
Total fatalities as a % of the population: 0.001%

One metric related to the virus that has been difficult to pin down has been the fatality rate. Of the 2 commonly used metrics (Case Fatality Rate or CFR, and Infection Fatality Rate or IFR), the most commonly quoted is the CSR, since the number of cases diagnosed is more reliable denominator than the total number of infections, since a large number of infections are either asymptomatic, or the symptoms were so mild that the victims never sought medical treatment, and were not tested. Recently Sanford university did an extensive study using an anti-body test. This test is supposed to indicate whether a person had been infected in the past by testing for Covid-19 anti-bodies in the blood stream. The Sanford study, which is preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed, concluded that the IFR is closer to 0.2%. A similar study has been done in Los Angeles county by USC and has found similar numbers, although the details have of the test have not been released. There has been some criticism about the relatively small sample set, as well as the potential for false positives with the test...but if these numbers hold up, it would mean that C-19 has an IFR that is very similar to the seasonal flu. This will be interesting to follow.

Stay safe and be reasonable