[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

I disagree, specifically as it pertains to The Villages pre-owned home market.

As people are fond of proclaiming, "The Village market is different than a traditional market". It is, in some ways.

While "Days of Inventory" is one of the most critical considerations when characterizing most any sort of market, consideration has to be given to the historical average vs current conditions. Not an absolute statement that a 4-6 months supply equals a healthy market.

The days of when 4-6 months supply equal a healthy market in a desirable area, are long gone. That might work in Peoria, but it doesn't in Metro Boston, NY, LA, or any other large metro market, that's seen huge appreciation in the post-Covid world. IMO, The Villages falls into that category. 4-6 months supply of inventory in TV, is a harbinger of rapidly declining prices.

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

Less than 1% of homes are generally on the market at any given time. 3% for sale, would mean there is a 3 year supply of homes for sale. The sky would fall.

[Jayhawk]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Less than 1% of homes are generally on the market at any given time. 3% for sale, would mean there is a 3 year supply of homes for sale. The sky would fall.

So you're saying 1,500 homes (3%) is a 3-year supply? In what world are there only 500 re-sales per year (42 per month) in The Villages?

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

No, it means the prices are falling, and THEY ARE INDEED FALLING!

Average days on market is almost 70 days. Prices are being cut by sellers which in part has caused the revaluation of the market. Every month for the last eight months there have been more homes entering the MLS than those that have been sold. So yes, the market is saturated and yes, prices are being cut by about 6% from OAP. The sky isn’t falling unless you have to sell and you bought your house in 2022 or later and are selling. This crash was forecast way back in the fall of 23!

Square foot averages have dropped from last year by quite a bit.

[justjim]

Originally Posted by Jayhawk

Maybe, but there are at least 50,000 or more "not new construction" homes in The Villages. If 3% of pre-owned homes (about 1,500) are listed for sale at any moment, that is not an unusual market in pretty much any geographic area. Certainly, the sky is not falling.

The number of homes is probably closer to 60,000 rather than 50,000. I read that it is not unusual in a retirement community to have 3% of occupied homes for sale.

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by tophcfa

Since we have no plans to sell that is a good thing. Homes will be more affordable for new retirees who hope to own a Villages home, and hopefully both homeowners insurance values and assessed values for taxes won’t keep rapidly trending upward : )

Right ! Could (possibly ?) even slow down the rate of quick turn over investors and air B&B owners interest in the community too !

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

I think it's perfectly clear how it will play out, it's the same basic premises that has defined Economics for centuries, Supply & Demand.

The real estate folks are great at quoting and posting all this noise about how pricing has not changed much over the last year, but where their reasoning falls apart, is they're not looking at "Days Supply", which is really the number that matters. When I bought in TV 4 years ago, I think the Days Supply was in the 30 day range ... now it's probably in the 90 day range.

Homes don't go on the market for "fun" ... they go on the market because people need to sell for one reason or another. The vast majority of homes on the market will eventually sell, for that very reason ... and prices will drop until they do.

There's also that old saying in the real estate business: it doesn't matter what the owner thinks his/her property is "worth", or what the agent thinks he/her can "get". They all sell eventually regardless of the market, when they are priced at an amount someone will pay ! The amount someone is willing to pay is the only genuine "valuation" of most anything, land, home, auto, or household item !

[Normal]

Originally Posted by Pairadocs

There's also that old saying in the real estate business: it doesn't matter what the owner thinks his/her property is "worth", or what the agent thinks he/her can "get". They all sell eventually regardless of the market, when they are priced at an amount someone will pay ! The amount someone is willing to pay is the only genuine "valuation" of most anything, land, home, auto, or household item !

And part of the calculus of a home buyer is the lending rate which will stubbornly stick around for a while. Inflation stats for January show a rate of 2.9 percent and more than 50% of the homes purchased here are financed through a mortgage. Dr. Horton has managed to skirt this a little by offering tiered rates for their new construction sales.

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by Normal

And part of the calculus of a home buyer is the lending rate which will stubbornly stick around for a while. Inflation stats for January show a rate of 2.9 percent and more than 50% of the homes purchased here are financed through a mortgage. Dr. Horton has managed to skirt this a little by offering tiered rates for their new construction sales.

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

[Topspinmo]

You can go to almost any city and see same thing lots for sale at over inflated prices. The villages has always been over inflated and will continue. There will always be large amount for sale? Why ever month people move in or out, and die. Only matter of time. The problem this time inflation and slim job opportunity’s make it buyers market if they got funds and means to buy?

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by Pairadocs

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

Not surprised, some think they can make more money with money not invested in home.

[ElDiabloJoe]

If you want actual solid MLS (NOT VLS) information, delivered every Tuesday, that is data driven, factual, updated weekly, and tracked annually, see David's videos. Here's a link to the most current one. I suggest you FF two minutes to get past the intro if you're already familiar with him:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stuSD_-vynw

He will show you EXACTLY what mortgage rate are doing, EXACTLY how many homes are on the market in which areas, and EXACTLY how much price reductions are by how many and how long houses have been on the market and where all these variables are trending.

[kansasr]

Originally Posted by justjim

The number of homes is probably closer to 60,000 rather than 50,000. I read that it is not unusual in a retirement community to have 3% of occupied homes for sale.

Actually, based upon the budgets for each of the CDD's and the Lady Lake/Lake County district, the number is just over 80,000.

[CarlR33]

Originally Posted by Pairadocs

Don't doubt your stats since I really don't know them myself, but I am really surprised that 50% of the homes purchased by retirees are mortgaged. Expected some for various reasons, but 50% really did surprise me, thought it was be much lower.

I was surprised by that number to but most likely it’s because the snow birds don’t want to give up the northern home with the equity tied up so they have to mortgage the one here until the day they become full time.

[Cuervo]

No one can accurately predict what the housing market will do tomorrow.
You can only assume because of past history, but there are too many factors that can turn that on its head.
Let us not forget the housing crash in the 2008, all the experts did not believe that would ever happen.
If you want to get an insight and a laugh watch a movie titled the "Big Short".