[rsmurano]

Why do people think this place is so expensive and things are going to dry up? 99.9999% of the people moving here, this is not their 1st home, and I’ll bet most of these same people will be selling a house that costs much more than what they will be spending here in TV.
On top of that, a lot of people pay cash so they will be benefiting from any soft sales in TV that might occur.
All of Florida is benefiting from a huge influx of people coming from other states and I don’t see this ending anytime soon, and actually, we might be getting more people move here than in these last few years. How many new homes do you see go unsold?

[champion6]

Originally Posted by Sbrothnj

Appreciate all the detail. You obviously are on top of this. Pretty interesting. But these figures always throw me. So RCLCO says the Villages sold 3932 homes last year. Is that just new construction? Villages Realtors generally quote that they build about 1000 homes a month. So those numbers work But then they also sell a lot of resales, and MLS also sells a healthy number of resales. What does that 3932 actually represent? Thanks

See attachment - page 1 of the 2022 TV Market Update mailed by Properties of The Villages.
2022
2,538 Pre-owned
3,923 New
6,461 Total
Not included, pre-owned sold by MLS

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by Sbrothnj

Appreciate all the detail. You obviously are on top of this. Pretty interesting. But these figures always throw me. So RCLCO says the Villages sold 3932 homes last year. Is that just new construction? Villages Realtors generally quote that they build about 1000 homes a month. So those numbers work But then they also sell a lot of resales, and MLS also sells a healthy number of resales. What does that 3932 actually represent? Thanks

They reported 3,749 new homes closed in 2022.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by rsmurano

Why do people think this place is so expensive and things are going to dry up? 99.9999% of the people moving here, this is not their 1st home, and I’ll bet most of these same people will be selling a house that costs much more than what they will be spending here in TV.
On top of that, a lot of people pay cash so they will be benefiting from any soft sales in TV that might occur.
All of Florida is benefiting from a huge influx of people coming from other states and I don’t see this ending anytime soon, and actually, we might be getting more people move here than in these last few years. How many new homes do you see go unsold?

SO true.

Just seeing the situation in my state of origin, Minnesota, is proof of that. Minnesota's population has remained relatively stable over the last decade or so, but the NUMBERS of people don't begin to tell the tale. The people moving there are largely persons who come to take advantage of Minnesota's largesse: third-worlders, mainly Somalis, routed there by the Federal government because of Minnesota's liberal (calling it what it is) welfare policies. Migrants who work, when work is available, in Minnesota's agricultural industry and who subsist on the taxpayer's dime during the rest of the time. Folks who once a month crowd Amtrak and the bus lines to come to Minnesota to claim welfare benefits while using the local address of a friend or family member. And etc. etc. etc.

The other side of that coin are the folks who are fleeing Minnesota like deranged lemmings because of the vapid government policies, ruinous taxes and lack of effective law enforcement. But those deranged lemmings are the folks with money; not only retirees but skilled workers and professionals who have tired of what Minnesota has become. All these people take not only their money, their bank accounts, their toys and their purchasing power to the states they move to, thus enriching that state, but they're also taking with them all the potential taxes they WOULD have paid, had Minnesota not have tried to wring every possible dime out of them while they were there.

So...in Minnesota the NUMBERS have remained more-or-less stable, but the people moving out with the money and the careers are being replaced largely by people whose idea of a "career" is slurping at the public trough.

The politicians realize this. Not all that many years ago the then-Governor of Florida joked publicly that he was thinking of sending the Governor of Minnesota a thank-you card, for all the Minnesotans with money flooding into his state.

[westernrider75]

Originally Posted by coconutmama

I’d be interested. Tired already of surrounding communities mooching off our multi modal paths, courts & pools. Maybe it would have a no short term rental clause too! That would be perfect. Guess I am dreaming…

Do like the idea of a separate Villages II concept. Can only wish.

Just an FYI, some of your neighbors are here because they did a short term rental to check out The Villages and decided they loved it. They are not all bad!

[midiwiz]

Originally Posted by Fastskiguy

Totally agree, it's fun to be part of it.

Joe

until your house is worth less than what you paid for it..... supply and demand... new vs old.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by midiwiz

until your house is worth less than what you paid for it..... supply and demand... new vs old.

At this point in life, today or any day following could be, and eventually one will be, my last day, the value of my house is the least of my worries . . . with or without a mortgage, though the TV house has no mortgage.

future former finance guy

[skippy05]

It is true. A day of Villages reckoning will come where the generations have no retirement funds in order to buy these used houses and the place will fall into an abandon land of the dead. The only option will be to open it up to non 55 normal purchasing in order that anything gets purchased at all.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

We played golf last week all along the West Coast from Venice to Bradenton, and played with a former:

NY Fire fighter
Local Merrill Lynch rep
PA small business owner

All moved for better weather. . . and less crazy lifestyle

Twice played near Lakewood Ranch, and the traffic on 75 was jammed most of the day,
but the interesting part was south during the morning and north during the afternoon/evening
and looked like a lot of trades heading to the hurricane damage to work for the day. .

During the commute home, some light sequences weren't timed to the amount of traffic so there were
cars trapped in the middle of the intersection when the light turned red. Some restaurants had a 90+ minute wait.

Lakewood ranch is a Villages built around a normal lifestyle. Most all have terra cotta roofs, and normal residential type businesses a short drive away. . houses are a bit more expensive than TV, but you are closer to the coast.

[Goldwingnut]

This is simply long term supply chain management. They (the developer) have been doing this for years, they have to, it can take years to put together large swaths of contiguous properties to create any development. Don’t kid yourself into thinking this won’t be an eventual part of The Villages, it is only about a mile away from the Renaissance Trail property in Lake county that they acquired that is now a part of CDD14, and some digging into property records of the properties between these two parcels reveals entities with long relationships with the developer. This property will probably stay undeveloped for longer than most of the readers of this post, myself included, will be around.

As far as the market collapsing from a lack of retirees, I think you are selling a lot of the younger generations short. There are many that are planning ahead and for their own retirements, there is also, just like in our own generations, that have and are not planning for retirement. The developer has shown themselves to be adaptable to market changes for nearly 40 years, it seems unlikely that they’ll either get suck in the mud and not adapt or thrown in the towel on the family business.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Goldwingnut

As far as the market collapsing from a lack of retirees, I think you are selling a lot of the younger generations short. There are many that are planning ahead and for their own retirements, there is also, just like in our own generations, that have and are not planning for retirement. .

Not only, "don't sell the kids short".............there are significant numbers retiring for the next 20 years.

Today, there are about 11,000 people turning 65 EVERY DAY.

In 20 years, there will still be 9,000 people turning 65 EVERY DAY.

For TV to sell 4,000 homes per year, they need 10 couples or single to retire every day.

[Laker14]

I think the older sections will remain attractive to new buyers as long as the owners of the older sections continue to maintain the amenities and common areas up to the standards that have always existed to date.
Which means, instead of complaining about the rising cost of amenity fees, and maintenance assessments, understanding that those fees are what keep the place looking good, and attractive to potential buyers who will also be looking at the new areas, and as a consequence, maintain the value of our homes.
I also think that it's important that the amenities in the older areas keep in touch with the changing desires of new retirees.

[PJ_Smiley]

We first came to TV for a visit almost 10 years ago. While driving on the turnpike near the CR 468 overpass (now Warm Springs), the Okahumpka rest area, and the then Bailey bridge (now Bexley), I commented to my family regarding the hundreds of acres of farmland/pasture that TV developer may not own the land, but the TV developer most certainly has a renewable option to buy the land. So, just because the TV developer does not currently own the land between TV and the newly purchased 900 acres, they may have (most likely) an option to buy. There is no public record of purchase options, and the potential buyer can hold the land under option for multiple years and even longer with a renewal option. The potential buyer pays an option price upfront and the option is exercised before the expiration date, renewed (for an additional fee) or the option expires.

FYI, The reason cows are grazing on property (like at the corner of 466A and Powell Rd where new Home Depot is being built) up until construction starts is so the owner can retain the agricultural exemption on the land and pay less property taxes, a lot less.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive

Translation (for at least some who object): "I have my little slice of heaven, now slam the door shut!"

Or translation for those who object: Not at all what we wanted for a nice retirement and it feels very incestuous. Time to get out and leave it for those who love the overcrowding like a big city only on a cloistered level.

[Bilyclub]

Anybody know what they're building just South of the TV industrial park ?