Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Watching and Waiting for a Coronavirus Surge in The Villages in Today's WSJ (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/watching-waiting-coronavirus-surge-villages-todays-wsj-305356/)

zendog3 04-18-2020 12:23 PM

I think some people do not understand what flattening the curve means. It does not mean that fewer people get the disease or die for it. It means fewer of them get it at the same time. Flattening the curve means the disease spreads much slower, giving time to develop a vaccine and keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed. If we go back to unrestrained socializing before we have a vaccine there will be a secondary surge. This virus spreads fast when people gather together. Your goal should be to stay out from under the curve all the time. You don't want your mourners to say, "At least she died after we flattened the curve."

Barefoot 04-18-2020 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by arbajeda (Post 1748668)
For seniors in Florida’s Villages, coronavirus dangers stack up

Watching and Waiting for a Coronavirus Surge at The Villages in Florida - WSJ

Their predictions primarily rely on the fact that the preponderance of Villagers are older and many have preexisting conditions. They both ignore the fact that if there were going to be rampant infections they would have taken place before the mandated social distancing.

Conclusion? It's all fake news.

People have died in The Villages. I don't think it's fake news.

Adorrable1 04-18-2020 12:41 PM

Thank you Daphne. It is so frustrating that people who don't live in the state of new york, don't understand the difference between NYC, and the buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse area. People in NYC live on top of each other and live with mass transit. The other side of the state is the total opposite. Don't put us all in one pot. Everything that Cuomo has been spouting for the last month is all about the city
Not upstate. For people that don't know, buffalo is 10 hrs from new york.. don't just look at a license plate and assume.

72lions 04-18-2020 12:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vintageogauge (Post 1748321)
That's 2 families out of over 20,000 documented people that have entered the state from the NY Metro area. Do you really think they are all self quarantined? I doubt it very much. And I'm not saying they're ignorant, they are not obeying their governors orders. We would like to go up to Ohio and visit our children and grandchildren but we know we're not supposed to so here we stay.

20,000 documented to have physically abandoned NYC area and relocated to Florida? Documented by whom?

sheena0904 04-18-2020 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by npwalters (Post 1748233)
If I did the math right the 68 folks are .004% of TV population.

I was so concerned about the outbreak in The Villages and it never came. The fear and lies the media has spread is just unbelievable. Let things go back to normal. Any death is too much from something but 19 in the tri county area over 2 months? Pretty sure a lot more people have passed from other causes.

EnglishJW 04-18-2020 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1748716)
Stanford used a lateral flow immunoassay to test for antibodies. Link to study here:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...463v1.full.pdf

Thanks. After getting past the list of 17 authors, I did get through it. The conclusions are not surprising the only question is the order of magnitude / prevalence. Since Quest can and is providing SARS CoV-2 testing, there is likely to be much more information forthcoming. There are also a number of related articles starting to appear as well.

Community Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Among Patients With Influenzalike Illnesses Presenting to a Los Angeles Medical Center in March 2020 | Infectious Diseases | JAMA | JAMA Network

Yukon33 04-18-2020 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adorrable1 (Post 1748757)
Thank you Daphne. It is so frustrating that people who don't live in the state of new york, don't understand the difference between NYC, and the buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse area. People in NYC live on top of each other and live with mass transit. The other side of the state is the total opposite. Don't put us all in one pot. Everything that Cuomo has been spouting for the last month is all about the city
Not upstate. For people that don't know, buffalo is 10 hrs from new york.. don't just look at a license plate and assume.

:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

Trishakaye 04-18-2020 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by starflyte1 (Post 1748135)
Yes, it could haunt The Villages. It also may NOT haunt The Villages! I’ll go with the latter.

I know privacy issues come into play, but I’m curious which Village residents who tested positive reside in AND did they contract Covid from neighbors, shopping, golfing, etc. Since the number are slowly climbing I guess we assume it’s person to person contact

justjim 04-18-2020 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sail33or (Post 1748243)
Music in the Squares in 2 weeks. Rec Centers and pools open in 4 weeks.

QUIT LISTENING TO THE MEDIA.

First Amendment guarantees the freedom of the press. This is very important for our democracy as is the Second Amendment that protects an individuals right to keep a gun for self defense.

Nancy@Pinellas 04-18-2020 02:48 PM

They have to talk about the fatalities or no one would take it seriously. Some South Koreans who were cured of the virus are now getting infected again... what about that?

coffeebean 04-18-2020 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Choro&Swing (Post 1748481)

...........The Villages has almost nothing but single family homes, and nearly all have only one or two people living there, and they all have room to be outdoors in the sun. Social distancing and quarantining is easy. There is plenty of room to walk and ride bicycles or go for rides in golf carts, even if we can’t swim or golf right now. This is much safer than urban neighborhoods where people are packed together. So keep your distance, keep up your courage, don’t panic, and we will get through this.

Has golf been closed? As far as I know, golf has remained open.

coffeebean 04-18-2020 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NotGolfer (Post 1748505)
I just watched a video of a report of a study out of Stanford University. I don't know how to transfer it here...but it's pretty astounding what their findings found. Anyone whose more technically proficient than me, probably could find it and share it. Steve Deace was the one who was sharing it...if that would help. It actually gave hope instead of fear!!

New Coronavirus Study is a GAME CHANGER | Steve Deace Show - YouTube

coffeebean 04-18-2020 03:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by donaviv (Post 1748728)
I wish....

Is this a response to someone's quote? If it is, please reply with quote. I have no idea what you are wishing for.

ColdNoMore 04-18-2020 03:32 PM

With so many stubborn old people, who have a tendency to mainly listen to those who aren't scientists, how can we NOT...have a "surge" at some point? :shrug:

jimjamuser 04-18-2020 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jarodrig (Post 1748657)
No longer true to my dismay......that was shut down a week or two ago ....

A tree hugging whiner probably saw folks (who were social distancing) having fun and couldn’t control himself/herself and blew the whistle ......

Or maybe they saved your life!

jenistaf 04-18-2020 04:00 PM

Villages Surge?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by capecodbob (Post 1748105)
Sprawling retirement community has at least 68 residents positive for Covid-19; ‘an opportunity for it to take off’
By Arian Campo-Flores for The Wall Street Journal
April 17, 2020 8:00 am ET


Residents of The Villages, a sprawling retirement community in central Florida, were still gathering in town squares, visiting nail salons and browsing an estate sale in late March. Only after Gov. Ron DeSantis issued a statewide stay-at-home order April 1 did many of the holdouts hunker down, residents and officials say.

The delay in adopting social-distancing measures could haunt The Villages, a fast-growing metro area of more than 128,000 people whose older age makes them especially vulnerable to Covid-19

So, are we going to have a surge or not?

Quarantines are 14 days. Governor's order was April 1. It is April 18. People who were careless in March already got sick if they were going to. Anyone who has been careful since April 1 is gonna be fine - provided they stay careful. No surge.

mistervin 04-18-2020 04:09 PM

What? WSJ is supposed to be financial news? 68 positive out of 128000 is like 1/2%. Use common sense

Sweet Caroline 04-18-2020 04:21 PM

Stupid article. They didnt even mention STDs, loofas, or key parties. I was so disappointed.

600th Photo Sq 04-18-2020 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micki (Post 1748471)
I’ve seen people congregating all over The Villages, especially in the stores. I also know many people, including myself, are praying Psalm 91 over all of you, my neighbors. The power of God is far greater than the power of a virus. If we were going to spike wouldn’t we be seeing it now? Sixty eight people out of more than 100,000 is .07%. I think rather than believing ongoing news reports about a spike coming, its time to thank God for His Divine protection.

Psalm 91
1 He that dwelleth in the secret place of the most High
shall abide under the shadow of the Almighty.
2 I will say of the Lord, He is my refuge and my fortress:
my God; in him will I trust.
3 Surely he shall deliver thee from the snare of the fowler,
and from the noisome pestilence.
4 He shall cover thee with his feathers,
and under his wings shalt thou trust:
his truth shall be thy shield and buckler.
5 Thou shalt not be afraid for the terror by night;
nor for the arrow that flieth by day;
6 nor for the pestilence that walketh in darkness;
nor for the destruction that wasteth at noonday.
7 A thousand shall fall at thy side,
and ten thousand at thy right hand;
but it shall not come nigh thee.
8 Only with thine eyes shalt thou behold
and see the reward of the wicked.
9 Because thou hast made the Lord, which is my refuge,
even the most High, thy habitation;
10 there shall no evil befall thee,
neither shall any plague come nigh thy dwelling.
11 For he shall give his angels charge over thee,
to keep thee in all thy ways.
12 They shall bear thee up in their hands,
lest thou dash thy foot against a stone.
13 Thou shalt tread upon the lion and adder:
the young lion and the dragon shalt thou trample under feet.
14 Because he hath set his love upon me, therefore will I deliver him:
I will set him on high, because he hath known my name.
15 He shall call upon me, and I will answer him:
I will be with him in trouble;
I will deliver him, and honour him.
16 With long life will I satisfy him,
and shew him my salvation.

Huh ? :shocked: :doggie:

600th Photo Sq 04-18-2020 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Caroline (Post 1748882)
Stupid article. They didnt even mention STDs, loofas, or key parties. I was so disappointed.

I'm with you. It would have been enjoyable especially the " Key Parties " . :icon_wink:

billethkid 04-18-2020 06:07 PM

I am impressed at the lack of response regarding the Stanford Serology Study provided in an earlier post....
this one

New Coronavirus Study is a GAME CHANGER | Steve Deace Show - YouTube

Released yesterday.....Food for thought; more understanding required; and personal research.

Terri8352 04-18-2020 06:17 PM

68divided by128,000 equals .0037
.0037 rounded is .004...move the decimal for a percent .4% of the population....still a very low amount

Topspinmo 04-18-2020 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ONTAP15 (Post 1748308)
Two families that I know, left NY in order to get out of harms way. Both are long time owners and are practicing social distancing and quarantined themselves for 2 weeks. As long as they are abiding by the rules, they or anyone from any state ,have a perfect right to come to their homes in TV. Apparently you think New Yorkers, who are under immense pressure from CV, are ignorant. We are not.


I disagree

Topspinmo 04-18-2020 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore (Post 1748867)
With so many stubborn old people, who have a tendency to mainly listen to those who aren't scientists, how can we NOT...have a "surge" at some point? :shrug:


When you get old :shocked:

RosemarySoso 04-18-2020 06:46 PM

Well Mr Vintage, the NY license plates that are here infiltrating your sanitary bubble are those who pay their taxes, pay their amenity fees and support the clubs and restaurants and are stuck here, unable to head north.

Topspinmo 04-18-2020 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RosemarySoso (Post 1748939)
Well Mr Vintage, the NY license plates that are here infiltrating your sanitary bubble are those who pay their taxes, pay their amenity fees and support the clubs and restaurants and are stuck here, unable to head north.


So, everybody else does too.

DianeM 04-18-2020 06:54 PM

Life is good when you discover the “ignore” button

DianeM 04-18-2020 06:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by coffeebean (Post 1748905)
I also replied to that post and it was REMOVED!!!! Not happy about that.

Yours was probably removed because it mentioned an item that would have set them off

600th Photo Sq 04-18-2020 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2BNTV (Post 1748241)
My doctor said the curve is still rising but I think we will be alright in several weeks assuming we practice social distancing.

My prediction is May 15th for all of Florida.

But then, what do I know? We can only hope for the best.

My prediction is May 16th only because I like an even number plus I had a dream.

It was a peaceful dream and when I woke up I hollered out is this the 16th of May.

The reply came back " Not Yet " . So I went back to sleep :doggie:

charlieboy 04-18-2020 07:41 PM

Dream on.

spieka1912 04-18-2020 07:46 PM

Took exercise bike ride Sat - 19:00 to Sumter Square.
12+ golf carts having drinking party in front of City Fire. Looked like fun.
Here's the problem, I thought we were supposed to only be out for esential errands and exercise.
Here's the next problem, Sumter County car 13-13 stopped, looked, turned a blind eye and drove away.
This is so screwed up, this is the wild west all over, no rules.

msilagy 04-18-2020 08:18 PM

I agree that the amount of infected that is known is low but the deaths is about 9% of those people. That's an indication of what could happen if it blew up in TV. Stated in the media TV had the highest % death rate in Florida. So glad that the incidence so far is low.

CaVillager 04-18-2020 08:22 PM

I thought it was Chris Berman who said, "He could go all the way"!

blueash 04-18-2020 08:29 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by jenistaf (Post 1748879)
Quarantines are 14 days. Governor's order was April 1. It is April 18. People who were careless in March already got sick if they were going to. Anyone who has been careful since April 1 is gonna be fine - provided they stay careful. No surge.

The new data from the Florida dashboard has 24 new cases in Sumter today. That is the biggest single day report and hopefully is not part of a trend. Here is the curve of Sumter cases with the last 24 hours added. One way to understand this is to see that 1/6 of all cases since the beginning were reported in the last 24 hours. Do not relax your precautions.

pcacace 04-18-2020 08:39 PM

That would be so nice! It’s like a ghost town right now. Bought a home 2 months ago and have not taken advantage of any of the amenities. My kids even cancelled their visit! 😞

Koapaka 04-18-2020 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jenistaf (Post 1748879)
Quarantines are 14 days. Governor's order was April 1. It is April 18. People who were careless in March already got sick if they were going to. Anyone who has been careful since April 1 is gonna be fine - provided they stay careful. No surge.

I PRAY you are right, but think you are incorrect. My medical experience has taught me just when you THINK you are out of the woods, complacency proves otherwise. I said it before and will say it again, we need to readdress this 2-3 weeks down the road, and IF I am wrong (and I pray I am truly) I will eat crow willingly and happily. Issue is people do NOT take into account the number asymptomatic that continue to infect those that will suffer...unwittingly, but none the less, creating a domino effect. With aging into the geriatrics group, you are much more likely to be suffering from compromised immunities and underlying medical issues both known and unknown, making the risk for our age groups MUCH more vulnerable to catastrophic outcomes should you contract this virus.

Mendy 04-18-2020 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sail41 (Post 1748267)
We always hear and read about the number of those affected with the virus, but nowhere do we hear about the number of people who have been cured or those released from the hospitals. I think if they counted those cured or no longer affected, the numbers would be far less. But, that doesn't scare people and sell papers or tv.

Most of the reports include number of cases, tested, recovered, deaths, etc. Even though I don't believe the reliability of a lot of the numbers, this report is updated all the time and appears to be one of the most consistent (I posted this a few weeks ago as well).

United States Coronavirus: 738,830 Cases and 39,014 Deaths - Worldometer

Kim Fowler 04-18-2020 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by john352 (Post 1748646)
It is more meaningful to state the number of cases per 100,000 population rather than just the totals.

As of the early Saturday (4/18) morning, here are the number of cases per 100,000 population:

215 USA
1,203 New York State
108 Florida
89 Sumter County
56 The Villages (73 cases & 130,000 population)


It’s much more meaningful to look at cases per 100,000 people rather than just raw numbers of cases. Wish the media did this. Thank you!

joshgun 04-18-2020 09:20 PM

I’m confused. I thought the town squares were closed on March 13. Remember no st Pats celebration. If this was truly in WSJ then I question whatever else the writer said.

DianeM 04-18-2020 09:21 PM

I read with interest the percentages of deaths in The Villages from 10% down to 2.36%. Anyone take into consideration that we are older and many could have passed of natural causes like “advanced maturity”? The loss of any life is sad but every older person is not dying from covid-19 in TV.


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