Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   The Villages, Florida, General Discussion (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/)
-   -   Watching and Waiting for a Coronavirus Surge in The Villages in Today's WSJ (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/villages-florida-general-discussion-73/watching-waiting-coronavirus-surge-villages-todays-wsj-305356/)

Kenswing 04-18-2020 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kim Fowler (Post 1748992)
It’s much more meaningful to look at cases per 100,000 people rather than just raw numbers of cases. Wish the media did this. Thank you!

This chart lists per 1 million people. You can extrapolate down from there..
United States Coronavirus: 738,830 Cases and 39,014 Deaths - Worldometer

dougawhite 04-18-2020 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sally2189 (Post 1748648)
They do list them every day, the number of cases and the number of deaths. If you subtract the deaths from the number of cases, you have how many have survived!

Since it takes a few weeks to die, the correct mortality rate is the # of deaths today divided by the number of cases 2-3 weeks ago.

Altavia 04-18-2020 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blueash (Post 1748979)
The new data from the Florida dashboard has 24 new cases in Sumter today. That is the biggest single day report and hopefully is not part of a trend. Here is the curve of Sumter cases with the last 24 hours added. One way to understand this is to see that 1/6 of all cases since the beginning were reported in the last 24 hours. Do not relax your precautions.

Any chance this is due to a change in reporting from COVID confirmed (by test) to COVID suspected?

blueash 04-18-2020 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbie0723 (Post 1749008)
Any chance this is due to a change in reporting from COVID confirmed (by test) to COVID suspected?

I asked a Sumter county epidemiologist about what is being counted. Only people with positive tests. That is both for test patients and deaths. So these 24 are new positive tests on living people as the death number did not change. Yet.

Yung Dum 04-19-2020 12:30 AM

None of this quarantining matters to our health. It's only in place to reduce the burden on the hospitals. Just because restrictions are eased up, you are not a bit safer than before. There also seems to be misconceptions about testing. Testing negative does not mean you are immune. It means you don't have the virus today. You may get it tomorrow or next week. You're not safe. No one is safe until a vaccine or cure is developed and that doesn't seem to be on the horizon. If you want to protect yourself, stay home or continue social distancing.

Fishers2tall 04-19-2020 04:08 AM

Thank you!!!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Caroline (Post 1748882)
Stupid article. They didnt even mention STDs, loofas, or key parties. I was so disappointed.

Thank you for your comment! That was oh so funny!!
:BigApplause::BigApplause::BigApplause: :BigApplause::BigApplause::BigApplause:

NotFromAroundHere 04-19-2020 06:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Terri8352 (Post 1748922)
68divided by128,000 equals .0037
.0037 rounded is .004...move the decimal for a percent .4% of the population....still a very low amount

Something is wrong with my calculator!!!!! When I divide 68 by 128,000 it says .00053125!!!!

Cheapbas 04-19-2020 06:30 AM

Infection rate is low, but mortality rate
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by npwalters (Post 1748233)
If I did the math right the 68 folks are .004% of TV population.

highest % in the country. Thankfully the numbers are low and we need to keep it that way.

JonWilliams 04-19-2020 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoodLife (Post 1748482)
UF test was for active virus, Stanford test was for antibodies.

True. Stanford test showed how many people had been exposed to the virus and developed antibodies -- whether or not they got "sick" and have now recovered. The point of the OP was "is there going to be a breakout of illness in The Villages due to the reported 68 cases coupled with asymptomatic people who could spread the disease?" The UF study showed that the number of asymptomatic people who are actually carrying the virus is very small: one tenth of one percent. This suggests Villagers are doing a good job sheltering in place so we are likely to avoid a widespread breakout of COVID-19.

Travelhunter 04-19-2020 06:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoMar (Post 1748724)
No....Sumter won't provide any guidance until the end of the month. Since Social distancing is required for Phase 1 and 2 how do you think that would work?

Thank you

Travelhunter 04-19-2020 07:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jenistaf (Post 1748879)
Quarantines are 14 days. Governor's order was April 1. It is April 18. People who were careless in March already got sick if they were going to. Anyone who has been careful since April 1 is gonna be fine - provided they stay careful. No surge.

Provided they didn’t come into contact with any of the people who weren’t careful and didn’t come into contact with any of the people infected by the people who weren’t careful

Travelhunter 04-19-2020 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koapaka (Post 1748987)
I PRAY you are right, but think you are incorrect. My medical experience has taught me just when you THINK you are out of the woods, complacency proves otherwise. I said it before and will say it again, we need to readdress this 2-3 weeks down the road, and IF I am wrong (and I pray I am truly) I will eat crow willingly and happily. Issue is people do NOT take into account the number asymptomatic that continue to infect those that will suffer...unwittingly, but none the less, creating a domino effect. With aging into the geriatrics group, you are much more likely to be suffering from compromised immunities and underlying medical issues both known and unknown, making the risk for our age groups MUCH more vulnerable to catastrophic outcomes should you contract this virus.

I agree. I’d rather be safe for a few weeks and enjoy the rest of my life

Bill1701 04-19-2020 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 1748189)
Surge???.................Yes, thanks to all the golfers.


:shocked:

Really? Where is your proof?

tomhinz 04-19-2020 08:14 AM

You bet. NYers should not come here. They are bringing chaos.

lindaelane 04-19-2020 08:15 AM

Which Test?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by JonWilliams (Post 1748451)
UFHealth's study of asymptomatic people who thought they had been exposed to the virus: 2100 people tested at the Polo Grounds so far, with three positive for COVID-19. That's .1%. Reported in The Villages Daily Sun, April 15.

Yes, but which test did UF Health use? The commonly available one gives a false negative to 30% of those who take it but are actually positive. Only about 3 days ago did a fairly accurate test become available, and I do not think - though I could be wrong - that UFHealth has that test. The earlier versions usefulness was that if it said you were positive, you almost always were. However, if it said you were negative, that was not too reassuring, since if you actually had CV, there was a 30% chance the test would miss it.

ficoguy 04-19-2020 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by npwalters (Post 1748233)
If I did the math right the 68 folks are .004% of TV population.

Miniscule. Not statistically relevant, except to village haters....the same ones that say we are riddled STDs due to promiscuous sex in the squares.

bluedivergirl 04-19-2020 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshgun (Post 1748993)
I’m confused. I thought the town squares were closed on March 13. Remember no st Pats celebration. If this was truly in WSJ then I question whatever else the writer said.

I caught that, too. I remember going to Brownwood on March 4th, and the squares were closed the next day. Remember the date because it is the last billing for the Bar Hut!

Another benefit of flattening the curve ~ at least I hope ~ is to give docs more time to understand this disease. When we first started, ventilators were everything. Now the shift is focusing to blood disturbances causing lung problems.

Those of us who get sick later may have better outcomes because knowledge has grown.

Twiganne 04-19-2020 09:13 AM

That was really funny lol

Lottoguy 04-19-2020 09:47 AM

I found the article to be accurate. There was an estate sale conducted during on March 26th. And the writer mentioned the various precautions being taken.

Dilligas 04-19-2020 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mistervin (Post 1748880)
What? WSJ is supposed to be financial news? 68 positive out of 128000 is like 1/2%. Use common sense

no it is .053%

bumpygreens 04-19-2020 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NotFromAroundHere (Post 1749053)
Something is wrong with my calculator!!!!! When I divide 68 by 128,000 it says .00053125!!!!

It must be an epidemic! My calculator gave me the same result!!! Should we quarantine the infected calculators, or imprison the uninfected ones? :MOJE_whot::MOJE_whot::MOJE_whot:

Lisa99 04-19-2020 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sail41 (Post 1748267)
We always hear and read about the number of those affected with the virus, but nowhere do we hear about the number of people who have been cured or those released from the hospitals. I think if they counted those cured or no longer affected, the numbers would be far less. But, that doesn't scare people and sell papers or tv.

They are counted. The following numbers are taken from the WHO at Worldometers.info.

Current US cases: 740,928
Of those 107,683 have had an outcome
Recovered: 68,599
Died: 39,084

The global numbers are similar in percentages.

Diamond Dave 04-19-2020 10:48 AM

Covid-19 update for TV
 
It's been stated that there are 68 confirmed cases in TV. How many deaths? Does anyone know the status of The Villages Hospital? Do they have respirators? How many Covid19 patients are there? I heard that they have the entire 2nd floor ready for them is needed.

sallybowron 04-19-2020 10:52 AM

Do you want to be among that small percent. I DON"T

Bogie Shooter 04-19-2020 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diamond Dave (Post 1749315)
It's been stated that there are 68 confirmed cases in TV. How many deaths? Does anyone know the status of The Villages Hospital? Do they have respirators? How many Covid19 patients are there? I heard that they have the entire 2nd floor ready for them is needed.

With a little effort you can find your answers here.
COVID-19 Updates >> UF Health >> University of Florida

Barefoot 04-19-2020 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diamond Dave (Post 1749315)
It's been stated that there are 68 confirmed cases in TV. How many deaths? Does anyone know the status of The Villages Hospital? Do they have respirators? How many Covid19 patients are there? I heard that they have the entire 2nd floor ready for them if needed.

It's nice to hear that they have the entire second dedicated to COVID-19 patients if needed.
I'd be interested to know if the Village Hospital has respirators.

Koapaka 04-19-2020 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bluedivergirl (Post 1749208)
I caught that, too. I remember going to Brownwood on March 4th, and the squares were closed the next day. Remember the date because it is the last billing for the Bar Hut!

Another benefit of flattening the curve ~ at least I hope ~ is to give docs more time to understand this disease. When we first started, ventilators were everything. Now the shift is focusing to blood disturbances causing lung problems.

Those of us who get sick later may have better outcomes because knowledge has grown.

Unfortunately, another fairly new development with some patients fighting this virus is also kidney damage/failure. :( :( :(

bilcon 04-19-2020 11:31 AM

Everyone is ready to condem The Villages, but the truth is that for a community this size with a high risk population, we have had few cases compared to other places in the world. Go pick on NY for waiting too long to stop the gathering activities.

prntxpresn 04-19-2020 01:48 PM

I know of a neighborhood whose residents go in each others' houses & rider in cars. Virus slows down in summer & will be reevoked this winter.

Pinellas0311 04-19-2020 02:26 PM

Virus Statistics in The Villages
 
Based on newspaper articles, I have had a number of friends invite me to come up north to stay with them and "be safer."

Let me say that the statistics of infections and deaths in The Villages area are not as bad as the numbers can be made to seem. There is no question that because of the older average age, the "rate of deaths per case" is higher than most other areas. 11 deaths out of 114 cases is 9.6% which is very high compared to many areas.

The positive view of the numbers come from looking at the infection rates in total. Think about it. Out of 120,000 people, only 114 have been infected. That's .09%, only one in 1,111. The overall Florida average is 22,082 out of 20,598,139. That's one out of every 935. The infection rate in The Villages is less than the rate for the entire state.

So yes, catching the virus in The Villages is, on average, more dangerous than in other areas, because of the average age. However, the risk of catching it is less than the average for the state.

I am as safe here as anywhere, as being somewhere else wouldn't change my age.

Indydealmaker 04-19-2020 02:53 PM

That headline reads as if the author is hoping for a crisis here. Poor writing or bias?

Velvet 04-19-2020 04:06 PM

Waiting? Knowing my neighbors, it might be a long wait;

VApeople 04-19-2020 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jacob85 (Post 1748519)
the open beaches show people in clusters

The pictures I saw did NOT show the people in clusters.

jimjamuser 04-19-2020 08:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spieka1912 (Post 1748970)
Took exercise bike ride Sat - 19:00 to Sumter Square.
12+ golf carts having drinking party in front of City Fire. Looked like fun.
Here's the problem, I thought we were supposed to only be out for esential errands and exercise.
Here's the next problem, Sumter County car 13-13 stopped, looked, turned a blind eye and drove away.
This is so screwed up, this is the wild west all over, no rules.

And the taxpayer paid that police officer for his time. Also the cruiser cost and the gas.

JulieER 04-19-2020 11:48 PM

Virus Recovery Count
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sail41 (Post 1748267)
We always hear and read about the number of those affected with the virus, but nowhere do we hear about the number of people who have been cured or those released from the hospitals. I think if they counted those cured or no longer affected, the numbers would be far less. But, that doesn't scare people and sell papers or tv.

There is a site that updates constantly. You can find the recoveries there. And so much more. I was flagged for spam when I put the link in the msg but you can see it on top of the picture.

charmed59 04-20-2020 06:44 AM

That does show recoveries if they are reported. On the Bing file that shows they same information it shows NO recoveries in Florida. We know that is not true, the Sun reported 66 recoveries in Sumter County as of last week.

I know I feel much more positive when they report recoveries or active cases. The day they reported the 66 recoveries in the Sun they reported 110 cases in Sumter, so only 44 active cases. Doesn’t that sound much more hopeful.

PugMom 04-21-2020 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EdFNJ (Post 1748654)
Just maybe it's because they don't have enough tests to warrant wasting them on DEAD PEOPLE but rather those who may be walking around with it. People are also told to STAY home and not walk in to a hospital, Dr office, emergency care or emergency room if they have symptoms so think about how many aren't counted that actually do have it. I guess you also think all those that died and were stacked up in the morgue in the nursing home in Andover NJ just died of the flu or the 600 in the Smithfield plant just had a bad cold.

just stating what i see in the msm. Ct. still has a higher number of infections/deaths compared to this huge state. i'm keeping it in perspective & watching all the misinformation being passed off as news, while fending off the 'fun police' who think i should be indoors @ all times until i get the free & clear from political op's. i am rarely intimidated, esp by those who think they know best

PugMom 04-21-2020 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VApeople (Post 1749564)
The pictures I saw did NOT show the people in clusters.

i was told they used STOCK FOOTAGE for that news report

Topspinmo 04-21-2020 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boilermaker7091 (Post 1748735)
Most people I’ve on the courses are driving their own carts. A foursome on a green seldom get to close unless they’re at the hole. This sounds like a disgruntled tennis player who doesn’t realize how close they are when they play. You can fit several tennis courts on a golf green.

Evidently you haven’t been on Tennis court 120 by 120 feet. That would maybe be one or half of one.

Topspinmo 04-21-2020 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davefin (Post 1748584)
Can I assume you're not into golf? Let me tell you, it's safer on the golf courses than it is at the mailboxes.

So says golfer


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