[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Aloha1

TV is NOT the epicenter of the virus in Florida. If anything, it's safer than many communities in other States. We go to the same stores each week and see the same workers we have seen since March. If this were such a hot spot wouldn't you expect to see people dropping like flies? Not happening.

A little perspective, Florida has 22 million people. As of today there are 500,000 confirmed positive cases of Covid 19. Do the math, that is only 2.27% of the entire Florida population. And most cases are in the Miami-Dade area, not the tri county area here. Remember also, a positive test result does not equal a death sentence in the vast majority of cases. Those with compromised immune systems should certainly take precautions and be cautious but please stop with the broad brush.

I expect by mid September, a vaccine will be ready, borders will open, and snowbirds will return.

Agree with most of what you wrote but do not think we will have a virus by mid September.

As I understood it two 30,000 double blind tests have just started will run for about 90 days before they understand the results.

Figuring at best very end of the year but of course first responders, ,medical workers and other essential people will come to the head of the line before us old folks.

Hoping early next year but we shall see.

[Flamesfan]

Originally Posted by crazydeb10@yahoo.ca

I think many snowbirds will return. However Canadians will only return if the borders open up and if they can get health insurance. Personally I am waiting for a vaccine that works.

Not a well known fact, even though the land border is closed, Canadians can still fly into the States. Agreed this will limit how many Canadians, which I would suggest is a small percentage of returning snowbirds, will be back if the border remains closed. Some Canadian travel insurance companies are now offering policies that cover COVID-19.

[Aloha1]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Agree with most of what you wrote but do not think we will have a virus by mid September.

As I understood it two 30,000 double blind tests have just started will run for about 90 days before they understand the results.

Figuring at best very end of the year but of course first responders, ,medical workers and other essential people will come to the head of the line before us old folks.

Hoping early next year but we shall see.

Actually there are around 24 vaccine tests currently in progress. The top 4 are already producing a stockpile of shots for immediate distribution upon FDA approval. Moderna, Astrazenica, etc., have extremely good results so far. Moderna has said they expect to begin inoculations in October. Aside from that, the development of theraputics has significantly ramped. Doctors now say they have reduced the death rate by 80-85%.

This is not the old staid months upon months and interminable reviews process which only the US has been mired in. The process has been set free by this Administration and expect to be wowed.

[Barborv]

I would like to think they would. I was just down in TV for a few weeks from NY and I got dressed every day, went for golf cart rides, car rides seeing all the new stuff being built and even purchased bicycles , that we went out almost every evening , riding around if not walking. Went to the pool a lot also. Came back home 2 weeks ago, and other than the supermarket or doctors appts. I haven't bothered getting dressed, sit at my computer and watch television and chores! I have no desire to walk around my neighborhood let alone bike ride! Never have.
So I do hope the winter renters still want to rent for I have a renter coming for the 3 months of winter. Have this year and next and then I become permanent. Looking forward to the income. I just hope and pray that this virus will be behind us sooner than later and we can once again enjoy going to restaurants, being with friends without worrying about distancing, enjoying all the things we enjoy .

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Aloha1

Actually there are around 24 vaccine tests currently in progress. The top 4 are already producing a stockpile of shots for immediate distribution upon FDA approval. Moderna, Astrazenica, etc., have extremely good results so far. Moderna has said they expect to begin inoculations in October. Aside from that, the development of theraputics has significantly ramped. Doctors now say they have reduced the death rate by 80-85%.

This is not the old staid months upon months and interminable reviews process which only the US has been mired in. The process has been set free by this Administration and expect to be wowed.

Sure hope you are correct and the vaccines are shown to be effective and quickly available.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

One virologist type doctor said during an interview on television that a virus like this usually runs 2-3 years historically, but with modern medicine today, he is hoping another 18-24 months and then life will be able to return to more normal. Lets hope that is a great outcome. Sweden does have a return to normal, but Sweden is far smaller and far less dense, as is new zealand, so getting R0 down below 1 is far easier than the US. The interview was on bloomberg before 7 AM, and i was having coffee in the morning so I don't remember the doctor's name.

sportsguy

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by Number 10 GI

Let's think about it. Knee deep in snow and -10 on the thermometer or mid 70's and sunshine. Hmmmmmm.

Not all snowbirds are *literally* snowbound in the winter. Some come from mid-country lowlands, where there isn't a LOT of snow, for most of the year, and temps rarely get below 20. Some come from other continents, and fly overseas to return to the Villages in the winter, and their homes have moderate climates almost all year 'round.

Part of the problem is that snowbirds travelling by air are most likely to land in Orlando, which is being hit fairly hard by the virus. Flights are more limited now as well, and we don't know what air travel will look like in a month when the snowbirds are due to return.

For those who drive to Florida, I think it might be business as usual for most of them.
Even though the Villages hasn't been hit with all that much virus activity, the state of Florida IS the epicenter of the virus and has been for weeks now. If that doesn't improve within the next couple of weeks, I'll be curious to see how many snowbirds are willing to come back this season.

[themartianchick]

My husband and I became snowbirds when he retired 5 years ago. I was an independent contractor and could work from anywhere. We own our condo and tended to spend at least 2 months each winter in it. Last year, we were unable to spend any time there due to caring for my mom. This year we only spent a couple of days for the same reason and the added fact that I decided to go back to work. This upcoming winter, I could probably carve out a couple of weeks to visit our condo. (We really miss it!) However, the threat of COVID-19 makes us unwilling to travel to Florida now. Florida's unwillingness to take strong measures to combat the virus make us unwilling to risk our lives. We know that we could shelter in place in FL, as we have in NY. However, we don't really see the advantage to doing so. If there is snow shoveling to be done, we can either do it ourselves of hire someone else to take care of it. Our area of NY gets a lot of it!

In NY, people seem to take the precautions more seriously and it shows in our current COVID #s. My county is below 1% for new cases. Don't get me wrong...we aren't perfect but we don't see the same level of resistance to masking as we hear about in the south. We won't be coming back to Florida until the state gets a handle on controlling the virus. We personally know of people who have gotten the virus in NY and died. We know of two who have had extremely rough bouts with COVID. One had lesions in her throat due to being intubated. She is in her mid-50s with no underlying health conditions.She now has serious scarring of the lungs, too.The other is a man in his early 50s who likely had the virus (thought it was flu) earlier than was believed possible. He tested positive for the antibodies and is still having issues with walking and digestion. He's lost nearly 40 pounds and he really didn't have any weight to lose.

There is no reason to believe that herd immunity is even possible at this point because most people's antibodies to COVID drop within a few months after contracting the disease. In other words, they can become infected a second time and have different organs attacked by the virus. We also know that the experiences of New Yorkers and those from other states that were hit early in the Covid-crisis are the reason that the number of deaths in Florida and other late-blooming states are not higher. Doctors have learned about the virus by studying the situation in NY and Washington State. That information is helping to inform new treatments and keep folks alive in Florida today.

Coincidentally, my husband and I were planning to buy a house in Canada to serve as our main summer residence. That plan has been placed on hold because we cannot cross the border due to COVID. However, most Canadians that we've spoken to are absolutely appalled by the way that the disease is running through the American population. They don't want the border to open anytime soon and many are re-thinking their winter homes. There are many other warm places that would welcome Canadians and their dollars during the winter months. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this triggered some shift in winter in migrations from Canada...and also from the UK. The entire world is watching the US and they are giving us a failing grade.

Personally, we aren't planning to sell or rent our Florida condo. We can afford to wait out the coronavirus. We bought before the prices fully recovered from the 2008 crash. However, we can't afford the long-term health effects that COVID can cause. For that reason, we won't return until things are reasonably safe again.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

If you think like a New Englander, the summer here is outdoors, outdoor dining, outdoor family gatherings outside, golf, walking, etc. All that comes to an end between October and November. Why the South was late in getting the virus outbreak is that the summer airconditioned indoors had not hit, as most of the virus spread in the north was during February and March, which was unusually cold and indoors. So thinking through, winter in the north will be indoors, no outdoor activities and the south will be outdoors and warm, with outdoor dining.

I would infer that those that have the ability to drive down for their winter in TV will still come. They will be able to take walks, outdoor at home dining, and some outdoor dining restaurants. . .

international may not come, but not for wanting, for borders closed or limited insurance coverage. Our property manager has said that the winter rental bookings are delayed, waiting on the outcomes of the virus status. But as more people adjust, the risk will drop in the south, and will increase in the north with heating and more indoor time and boredom.

Now i don't predict 100% of the renters, but the snow bird owners will be back, and greater than 50% of the renters will be back. This is my prediction, forecast, etc. This prediction is not a fact, facts are historical, and the future hasn't arrived yet. So there is not way to prove or disprove my prediction at this point in time. You may have a different prediction, but I am not wrong yet, so what is your prediction?

sportsguy

[Vickim]

Canadians will have no health coverage for Covid - usually they purchase separate coverage while on travel that coverage will not cover covid ! If they contract the disease outside of Canada and end up in American hospital it could cost them thousands if not millions in healthcare cost that they will be responsible for. As of now the Canadian boarder is closed to drive across but you can fly but what a risk to take.

[NancyN2324]

Canadians won’t return as they won’t be able to purchase health insurance that will cover Covid until there is a vaccine.

[LoriAnn]

I’m guessing that some will come back and others will skip this year. We left the first week of March and plan to stay up north this year where there are more hospitals and specialty care if needed. Things could change if the daily positive numbers decrease dramatically by January. I hope they do....

[LoriAnn]

Originally Posted by themartianchick

My husband and I became snowbirds when he retired 5 years ago. I was an independent contractor and could work from anywhere. We own our condo and tended to spend at least 2 months each winter in it. Last year, we were unable to spend any time there due to caring for my mom. This year we only spent a couple of days for the same reason and the added fact that I decided to go back to work. This upcoming winter, I could probably carve out a couple of weeks to visit our condo. (We really miss it!) However, the threat of COVID-19 makes us unwilling to travel to Florida now. Florida's unwillingness to take strong measures to combat the virus make us unwilling to risk our lives. We know that we could shelter in place in FL, as we have in NY. However, we don't really see the advantage to doing so. If there is snow shoveling to be done, we can either do it ourselves of hire someone else to take care of it. Our area of NY gets a lot of it!

In NY, people seem to take the precautions more seriously and it shows in our current COVID #s. My county is below 1% for new cases. Don't get me wrong...we aren't perfect but we don't see the same level of resistance to masking as we hear about in the south. We won't be coming back to Florida until the state gets a handle on controlling the virus. We personally know of people who have gotten the virus in NY and died. We know of two who have had extremely rough bouts with COVID. One had lesions in her throat due to being intubated. She is in her mid-50s with no underlying health conditions.She now has serious scarring of the lungs, too.The other is a man in his early 50s who likely had the virus (thought it was flu) earlier than was believed possible. He tested positive for the antibodies and is still having issues with walking and digestion. He's lost nearly 40 pounds and he really didn't have any weight to lose.

There is no reason to believe that herd immunity is even possible at this point because most people's antibodies to COVID drop within a few months after contracting the disease. In other words, they can become infected a second time and have different organs attacked by the virus. We also know that the experiences of New Yorkers and those from other states that were hit early in the Covid-crisis are the reason that the number of deaths in Florida and other late-blooming states are not higher. Doctors have learned about the virus by studying the situation in NY and Washington State. That information is helping to inform new treatments and keep folks alive in Florida today.

Coincidentally, my husband and I were planning to buy a house in Canada to serve as our main summer residence. That plan has been placed on hold because we cannot cross the border due to COVID. However, most Canadians that we've spoken to are absolutely appalled by the way that the disease is running through the American population. They don't want the border to open anytime soon and many are re-thinking their winter homes. There are many other warm places that would welcome Canadians and their dollars during the winter months. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this triggered some shift in winter in migrations from Canada...and also from the UK. The entire world is watching the US and they are giving us a failing grade.

Personally, we aren't planning to sell or rent our Florida condo. We can afford to wait out the coronavirus. We bought before the prices fully recovered from the 2008 crash. However, we can't afford the long-term health effects that COVID can cause. For that reason, we won't return until things are reasonably safe again.

New York has done a phenomenal Job. My son is in graduate school in Rochester and refuses to come home to Indiana for a visit because of the almost fanatical resistance to masks and social distancing. As a result, Indiana daily positive numbers have started to dramatically increase. New York was willing to do the hard work and is now reaping the rewards. Everyone can learn from that.

[Bob3302]

Originally Posted by LoriAnn

I’m guessing that some will come back and others will skip this year. We left the first week of March and plan to stay up north this year where there are more hospitals and specialty care if needed. Things could change if the daily positive numbers decrease dramatically by January. I hope they do....

This is our plan too.

[Packer Fan]

Originally Posted by Timothyimitchell

The landlord investors will know soon. Any insight?

If anything rentals have been stronger. Even rerented the summer in both houses after 2 renters backed out. Nothing has really changed - the weather is still much better in Florida and that is why they come.