[nhtexasrn]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Do to limited electric vehicles on road plus the power problem will the even replace majority of fossil fueled vehicles in this century? Or at least by 2050?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8FHgwgQhCw

So, is this guy wrong?

This just production problems which don’t include the extra power and distribution of power to make dent in reduction of fossil fueled vehicles.

Then, there they cost involved manufacturing EVs due to rising cost rare earth minerals (majority can’t afford 40K plus cost of EV vehicles for around town. Sure small amount EVs helps, but got real problems and distribution to solve IMO before make dent is vehicles on the road.

IMO it's the "greenies" not seeing the forest for the trees....for instance, oil is used to generate the heat used to heat the water to produce the steam that turns the turbines that a generator converts into electricity. Even wind turbines us 60 gallons of oil for lubrication and that must be replaced every 500 hours. We are far from eliminating fossil fuels from this earth.

[Blackbird45]

This topic keeps on up. EVs are improving as far as mileage and charging, the better the improvements the more demand from the public. The more EVs on the road the more profit for electric providers, which means they will be forced to improve their systems. At the end like anything else it all comes to profitability. It doesn't matter if it's a hotel, a mall, a gym, or a state putting charging station on every inch of the highway, if they can make money it's going to happen.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Papa_lecki

Isn’t the prevailing wisdom, if we all have EV, no more climate change, thus no more hurricanes?

[MartinSE]

Originally Posted by Papa_lecki

Isn’t the prevailing wisdom, if we all have EV, no more climate change, thus no more hurricanes?

I can't tell if you are joking, being sarcastic or serious. So, I will assume you are serious.

NO ONE is saying that, except maybe people that don't believe it.

According to the EPA: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation account for about 29 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor of U.S. GHG emissions.

That is about 1/3 of the problem. It will not solve it, it is one step.

There are no silver bullets in life. You can workout everyday all day and if you eat wrong, you will get fat. You can eat well, and never work out and you won't be able to walk around the block soon. Add in smoking and your lungs will die before you do. On and on.

It is one thing, one thing we as individuals can do. There are a LOT of other things that need to be done, and those we as individuals can't help with other than voting.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by MartinSE

I can't tell if you are joking, being sarcastic or serious. So, I will assume you are serious.

NO ONE is saying that, except maybe people that don't believe it.

According to the EPA: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation account for about 29 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, making it the largest contributor of U.S. GHG emissions.

That is about 1/3 of the problem. It will not solve it, it is one step.

There are no silver bullets in life. You can workout everyday all day and if you eat wrong, you will get fat. You can eat well, and never work out and you won't be able to walk around the block soon. Add in smoking and your lungs will die before you do. On and on.

It is one thing, one thing we as individuals can do. There are a LOT of other things that need to be done, and those we as individuals can't help with other than voting.

Careful! Isn't a reference to voting--well--political?

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Bay Kid

China owns us, not just this but everything.
Talking about destruction of earth! Mining destruction and pollution?

We still hold better cards than China and Dictatorships are inherently inefficient. They need us more than we need them. So, we should slowly move away from our relationship with them. It would be hard for a decade or so, but then the US industry could be producing manufactured goods even cheaper than they do. Remember "American innovation" - it NEVER died it just got LAZY.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by MartinSE

Yes, he is sort of right. EVs, Computers, Phones, etc, etc, etc. need lots of are earth minerals. And China has been aggressively acquiring rights to rare earth minerals around the world for the past few decades, by cuddling up to poor countries building infrastructure in exchange for those rights. We on the other hand haven't been building those relationships, and will find it hard to move forward with out them. I will suggest (and I am sure it will start a political war here), but... the fossil fuel companies have spent a LOT of money lobbying to keep us addicted to fossil fuel and not allowing the government to build an alternative source of energy. it makes sense, it is in their interest to keep us tied to them for energy.

Now, on to predictions,

The fuel for the majority of power plants, factories, gas ovens, furnaces, etc etc etc will probably NOT happen in 30 years.

In talking about EVs, there are a couple issues to be resolved -

1. Batteries. Higher density, faster charging, faster production - the batteries we have now are ALMOST good enough. But, we certainly need higher production rates - more factories etc. Tesla is building new battery plants trying to catch up, but it will help when GM, Ford, Mercedes, VW, et all start making batteries too. This is just developing better tech, and that will happen if there is demand. Right now Tesla can't make enough batteries, and the demand is very high, so there is motivation to develop battery tech. If the other auto companies join the EV push, they will need batteries, that will help since GM, Ford et al, have the cash (or credit) to build massive battery factories.

2. We need a startup (maybe) that provides a cost effective mechanism to covert "gas stations" into recharging stations. That has logistic problems like getting Electricity to the gas stations with high enough current rating to super/fast charge. One alternative to that is the industry comes to a standard battery pack that can be swapped by a "robot"/automatic battery swapping station. So, you drive in, pull up on the platform, robot arms come out, remove the battery pack from your EV and insert a new one. Lots of design considerations, like to you "own" the batteries, or are you renting them. Etc etc.

3. Distributed electrical generation is a MUST have. When I was working at Palo Verdre Nuke plant in AZ there was a lot of debate over distributed generation, where every house, or at most every neighborhood has it's own power generation. The way we do it today is very vulnerable to outages (and sabotage) and expensive. Unfortunately, power companies kind of lose control if everyone (or every neighborhood) has it's own generation - be it Solar, geothermal, wind, hydro, etc, etc.

The big thing we need to understand is that no one thing is a silver bullet to solve our energy problems. Every location needs to customize the solution to what works best for them.

So, with all that in mind, I say, the majority of Automobiles sold in the US will be EVs within 20 years (maybe 10 if there is a lot of government support, but I don't see that happening).

I see private ownership of automobiles going away within 20 to 30 years. With FSD we will see "timeshare" cars. Where you pay a flat rate per month for use a a car - high subscription, more miles. When you want to go someplace you can schedule a car to arrive at a fixed time every day (good for commuting to work) or you can call a car and it will arrive in 5 to 10 minutes. The car takes you where you are going and then returns itself to the "pool". If you go on a shopping trip, there will be cars waiting to be summoned in the parking lots, so you shop, call the car while checking out, and walk outside and it is waiting to take you home. ETC. This will result in no more insurance, no more maintenance, no more drunk drivers, no more driver caused accidents, and much improved traffic flow both in town and on highways since the cars will all communicate and coordinate with each other.

Oh, and commercial truck drivers will cease to exist as FSD replaces them, making lower insurance, higher efficiency (truck on the move 24/7). etc.

That is my vision of 20 years or so (Maybe 30 for the truckers to be replaced).

Now, for the rest, power plants, factories, air flights, international cargo shipping etc. We will be hard pressed to replace all of they with electric of some other non-fossil fuel alternative in less than 50 years, maybe longer. If we simply ran out of oil, it would happen MUCH sooner. But, oil is too cheap (despite todays high prices) too easy to transport, and too high of an energy density to be replaced any sooner.

Sadly all that is the majority of pollution generated by Fossil fuels. But, we will NEVER get there is we don't start. For example, there are not going to be charging stations every where until there are EVs and there are not going to be enough EVs to support charging stations everywhere until there are charging everywhere. Catch 22. This is where government incentives come in to play, by making it more desirable it will happen sooner. Whether we see those and whether they are enough - I dunno.

All of that assumes we remain with the same battery chemistry - we won't. All of that assumes new sources (space) of rare earth minerals don't become available and financially practical to mine - they will.

So, there are a LOT of connections, like a spider web that will begin wiggling as we begin transitioning and those wiggles will result is massive changes in technology.

One of the difficulties in predicting technology changes, is that historically tech advances at an exponential rate, while we think about it in a linear rate. So, it "seems" like things are changing slowly, while in reality they are changing faster every year. AI is going to be play a BIG role in the design of new batteries and chemistries, and new power generation systems, etc etc.

It would NOT surprise me if 20 years from now Fossil fuel burning is outlawed. But, I can't tell you how we will get there. But it wouldn't surprise me. We made it to the moon in a decade, when everyone said it was impossible. SpaceX is up to 12 reuses of recovered launch vehicles and 10 years ago everyone laughed at the idea. Things can change fast - if we don't prevent it. And Fossil fuel companies have a very big incentive to prevent change.

Very thoughtful post. Kudos!

[Bay Kid]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

We still hold better cards than China and Dictatorships are inherently inefficient. They need us more than we need them. So, we should slowly move away from our relationship with them. It would be hard for a decade or so, but then the US industry could be producing manufactured goods even cheaper than they do. Remember "American innovation" - it NEVER died it just got LAZY.

I believe in the good old USA.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

The 1st thing that an English teacher would markdown is the "do to", which should be DUE to. Then there are about 10 more markdowns.
.......But, on the understandable part......2099 is so far away that 1/2 of the Earth's population may be on Mars and man-made orbiting globes.
........2050 EV success will depend on continuing research in battery technology and clean energy development. Federal Government-sponsored research will be important - our world could be one of all science deniers by then .....sadly.
.........Electric motors have several advantages over IC engines because they are more efficient, reliable, quiet, and have fewer parts. Electric motors basically spin in a circle with equal power supplied to all 360 degree rotation. Internal combustion engines have to convert jarring linear piston motion into rotary motion - with jarring explosions at only one cycle of its 4 cycle operation.
.........Not ALL countries produce oil and that fact seems to have contributed to wars. All countries have some form of renewable energy, so IF (?) technology like solar panels and storage batteries could be improved maybe (?) there would be less need for wars?

Thanks 3 grade substitute teacher. I see you had no rebuttal of the Video. So how come all electric vehicles are so expensive without the horrible gas engines and transmission? I would think the would be cheaper with less moving parts? We’re not going to be on mars buy 2099. 3099 maybe. And what going to do when they get there beings have to haul everything with them? O wait back to Stone Age.

[MartinSE]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Thanks 3 grade substitute teacher. I see you had no rebuttal of the Video. So how come all electric vehicles are so expensive without the horrible gas engines and transmission? I would think the would be cheaper with less moving parts? We’re not going to be on mars buy 2099. 3099 maybe. And what going to do when they get there beings have to haul everything with them? O wait back to Stone Age.

Well,

"In 1997, Sharp and Sony introduced the first large flat screen TV. It was created using the PALC technology and measured 42 inches, a record size at the time. This first model sold for more than $15,000, making it well out of reach for most Americans. "

I expect people said the same thing, why change to flat screen, CRTs are fine and cheaper.

And, I will bet you a dollar we have a colony on the Moon by 2030, and on Mars by 2040.

[ThirdOfFive]

Originally Posted by MartinSE

Well,

"In 1997, Sharp and Sony introduced the first large flat screen TV. It was created using the PALC technology and measured 42 inches, a record size at the time. This first model sold for more than $15,000, making it well out of reach for most Americans. "

I expect people said the same thing, why change to flat screen, CRTs are fine and cheaper.

And, I will bet you a dollar we have a colony on the Moon by 2030, and on Mars by 2040.

Great points. I remember the first handheld calculators; LEDs and they ran on AA batteries. I had one of the first ones back in the early 70's. Texas Instruments, as I recall. It could add, subtract, multiply and divide, and do some other simple slide-rule - type things. I remember buying it in '72 or '73 for $89.00. By the 90's they were giving away calculators that made that 1970 Texas Instruments model look like it came over on the Mayflower.

Remember Voyager II and it's tour of the outer Solar System? Awe-inspiring to say the least. It is now in interstellar space. But given the rate that technology develops--what are the chances that our great-great grandchildren will be seeing it on display at the Smithsonian at some point in the future. Even though it sounds impossible, I wouldn't bet against it.

[jimbo2012]

It doesn't take that long to charge.

U can buy an ev and drive 300 miles for less than $35,000

Nevada mines hold 25% of the world's lithium supply.
The State of Maine discovery a huge deposit.

The batteries are 95% recyclable.

Per figures reported by Cox Automotive, EV sales totaled 487,560 units in 2021,
an 89-percent increase over the 257,872 units sold in 2020. The figures also reveal a 71.8-percent increase in EV sales in Q4 of 2021, up to 147,799 units as compared to the 86,010 units sold in Q4 of 2020.

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales may have risen even higher had production and inventory not been impacted by the ongoing global microchip shortage.

Adding up the annual sales beginning from 2010 gets us to approximately 26.2 million cumulative electric vehicles sold, but factoring in an increasing rate of EVs going out of operation each year, we arrive at ~25.19 million EVs in operation. This is an increase of 14X from the roughly 1.8 million at the end of 2020.

Get with the times people it's happening in your lifetime.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

The 1st thing that an English teacher would markdown is the "do to", which should be DUE to. Then there are about 10 more markdowns.
.......But, on the understandable part......2099 is so far away that 1/2 of the Earth's population may be on Mars and man-made orbiting globes.
........2050 EV success will depend on continuing research in battery technology and clean energy development. Federal Government-sponsored research will be important - our world could be one of all science deniers by then .....sadly.
.........Electric motors have several advantages over IC engines because they are more efficient, reliable, quiet, and have fewer parts. Electric motors basically spin in a circle with equal power supplied to all 360 degree rotation. Internal combustion engines have to convert jarring linear piston motion into rotary motion - with jarring explosions at only one cycle of its 4 cycle operation.
.........Not ALL countries produce oil and that fact seems to have contributed to wars. All countries have some form of renewable energy, so IF (?) technology like solar panels and storage batteries could be improved maybe (?) there would be less need for wars?

I can see why yoy confusion or lack of comprehension.


Thank you 3rd grade substitute teacher. But, after you rant I see you never commended on the video which this is about. You would think being full electric vehicles would be cheaper than the dreaded combustion engine and transmissions being the have less parts? O I see the cost of batteries (or what they charge) far exceeds the cost of all that manufacturing combustion engines and transmissions. Hence the reality, the cost of fully electric has to come way down before they will be the majority. I willing to bet there Hugh profit margin on EV due (see mommy) to limited numbers being sold.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by jimbo2012

It doesn't take that long to charge.

U can buy an ev and drive 300 miles for less than $35,000

Nevada mines hold 25% of the world's lithium supply.
The State of Maine discovery a huge deposit.

The batteries are 95% recyclable.

Per figures reported by Cox Automotive, EV sales totaled 487,560 units in 2021,
an 89-percent increase over the 257,872 units sold in 2020. The figures also reveal a 71.8-percent increase in EV sales in Q4 of 2021, up to 147,799 units as compared to the 86,010 units sold in Q4 of 2020.

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales may have risen even higher had production and inventory not been impacted by the ongoing global microchip shortage.

Adding up the annual sales beginning from 2010 gets us to approximately 26.2 million cumulative electric vehicles sold, but factoring in an increasing rate of EVs going out of operation each year, we arrive at ~25.19 million EVs in operation. This is an increase of 14X from the roughly 1.8 million at the end of 2020.

Get with the times people it's happening in your lifetime.

Please name that brand.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by ThirdOfFive

Great points. I remember the first handheld calculators; LEDs and they ran on AA batteries. I had one of the first ones back in the early 70's. Texas Instruments, as I recall. It could add, subtract, multiply and divide, and do some other simple slide-rule - type things. I remember buying it in '72 or '73 for $89.00. By the 90's they were giving away calculators that made that 1970 Texas Instruments model look like it came over on the Mayflower.

Remember Voyager II and it's tour of the outer Solar System? Awe-inspiring to say the least. It is now in interstellar space. But given the rate that technology develops--what are the chances that our great-great grandchildren will be seeing it on display at the Smithsonian at some point in the future. Even though it sounds impossible, I wouldn't bet against it.

IMO they will see the great debt unless at some point the world files bankruptcy.