[TexaninVA]

People may find these charts & graphs helpful.

The menu allows you to choose Florida, USA or any other state to get a sense of what's happening, and what we're in for.

Florida is expected to peak, for example, in early May

COVID-19

[Altavia]

Here's another, you can see info by county by clicking the "Cases by County" tab at the bottom.

Experience

[Velvet]

The above graphs on Covid that OP posted a link to are based on FULL social distancing. What is the likelihood of that happening?

[TexaninVA]

Originally Posted by Velvet

The above graphs are based on FULL social distancing. What is the likelihood of that happening?

No doubt significantly less than 100% ...

I walked around my neighborhood last night and saw two driveway parties. One was ok, the other maybe 1/3 of the people talking were clustered two to three feet apart.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

The predictive graphs are just that, predictive, with a large outcome range, which means that the historical data needs more data points to have a narrower range of confidence. That will happen over time, but this outcome is the nature of war time data, foggy and not robust in the beginning. However its the best prediction that we can get from the limited data we have today, but as always, the future is uncertain, versus the reality of the past. The problem with state data is that the hospital beds may not all be co-located with the infection rate and need rates. So its a prediction, and will get better over time. CoachK's former boss is a PHD bio statistician, has worked in Washington for CMS, and is working on his own model to determine the peak based upon deaths. he said he will need two more weeks of data for the prediction to have some validity.

So treat the prediction as information but not factual, which can be very difficult for certain personality types, which is how their brain is wired. The future is uncertain, and the future has not arrived yet. My niece in law to be is a NYC nurse manager, and she is stressed beyond belief, as front line nurses are dying. So be a high information reader and take your protective steps seriously as the villages is in a war of survival right now, and that will be evident in several weeks from now.

sportsguy

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Also note that the graph is updated everyday, and the peak date and size will move a bit every day, so do not think that today's graph is good for several weeks, today's forecast/prediction is only good for today, tomorrow will be better, and will be different. Each day will be different than the prior data, but less so as we get more data, and the models work better.

sportsguy

[TexaninVA]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

The predictive graphs are just that, predictive, with a large outcome range, which means that the historical data needs more data points to have a narrower range of confidence. That will happen over time, but this outcome is the nature of war time data, foggy and not robust in the beginning. However its the best prediction that we can get from the limited data we have today, but as always, the future is uncertain, versus the reality of the past. The problem with state data is that the hospital beds may not all be co-located with the infection rate and need rates. So its a prediction, and will get better over time. CoachK's former boss is a PHD bio statistician, has worked in Washington for CMS, and is working on his own model to determine the peak based upon deaths. he said he will need two more weeks of data for the prediction to have some validity.

So treat the prediction as information but not factual, which can be very difficult for certain personality types, which is how their brain is wired. The future is uncertain, and the future has not arrived yet. My niece in law to be is a NYC nurse manager, and she is stressed beyond belief, as front line nurses are dying. So be a high information reader and take your protective steps seriously as the villages is in a war of survival right now, and that will be evident in several weeks from now.

sportsguy

Helpful insights and well stated.

[JohnN]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

[karostay]

Ya think the Virus knows what a graph is..Expect and prepare for the worst hope for the best

[davem4616]

far more data than I need to have/follow....but thanks for sharing

[E Cascade]

Originally Posted by Robbie0723

Here's another, you can see info by county by clicking the "Cases by County" tab at the bottom.

I can't seem to get the link.....need help at figuring this out. Thx and stay safe

[KSW]

Look at Alabama numbers compared to other much more populated states. Suspect info?

[Altavia]

Originally Posted by E Cascade

I can't seem to get the link.....need help at figuring this out. Thx and stay safe

Experience