[sowtime444]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

* The US is still short homes vs the household formation growth

Almost half a million MORE housing units have been completed (all types) than household formations between 2003 and 2021.

Population, Total for United States (POPTOTUSA647NWDB) | FRED | St. Louis Fed Population USA

Household Estimates (TTLHHM156N) | FRED | St. Louis Fed Households Created

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Completed: Total Units (COMPUTSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed Housing Units Completed

[Normal]

You can be academic and give me every reason under the sun for your analysis, but what is, is what is. Home prices have dipped 12% in The Villages and there are more on the market than at the beginning of the year, that isn’t a prediction. What will happen next? That would be a prediction. Pragmatism is accurate while everything else is just smoke and mirrors.

If the Fed raises rates, if more homes start to sell at a lower mean per square foot, then the slump may be here for a while.

[manaboutown]

Home prices drop for sixth-straight month in December to round out 2022

[mrf0151]

The housing market crash of 2008 hurt south florida by as high as 50%. Our area The Villages only went down 10-15%. Our market is very unique so stop the worry.

[Black Beauty]

everything is eventual..

[MandoMan]

Originally Posted by Arctic Fox

There are plenty of signs of a severe downturn in US property, with home sales down for 12 straight months in a row, the weakest set of numbers for more than a decade.

If the property market crashes, it will tip the economy into recession.

If there are losses on mortgages, it will threaten the stability of the financial markets and will determine what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates.

In 2008, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market triggered a global financial crisis.

I would say that used home sale prices in The Villages are down at least 10% since last summer, but at that point they were UP about 20% over the previous two years. Many would say that the prices now are more where they should be, but people selling their houses are getting less than they’d hoped for. Most of this is due to the need to raise interest rates. Two years ago you could buy houses for 3.5% interest, which is amazing and unusual. Now it’s more like 6%, which is much closer to the historical norm. However, that increased rate has cut down what people can afford or lenders will lend.

Subprime mortgages happened from greed—by lenders and buyers. Lenders loaned buyers far more money than they could afford to repay, and with less money down. That isn’t happening now. Buyers thought they were going to make killings buying and selling houses and accepted stupid risks like balloon payments they couldn’t pay without selling their houses for whatever they could get. I don’t think that is happening now, either. So I think we will be okay.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Normal

You can be academic and give me every reason under the sun for your analysis, but what is, is what is. Home prices have dipped 12% in The Villages and there are more on the market than at the beginning of the year, that isn’t a prediction. What will happen next? That would be a prediction. Pragmatism is accurate while everything else is just smoke and mirrors.

If the Fed raises rates, if more homes start to sell at a lower mean per square foot, then the slump may be here for a while.

I'll give you the "more on the market" but how did you come up with the 12% decline in price? I believe it to be more like 5-6%.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by ithos

There will not be another 2008 like housing crash until there is another housing glut and renting makes more financial sense than owning a home.

Home prices can and probably will decline due to a broader economic downturn caused by the Federal Governments fiscal irresponsibility in running up tens of trillions in debt.

The Federal Gov. is trying to prevent a downturn - they are NOT causing one!

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

The Federal Gov. is trying to prevent a downturn - they are NOT causing one!

Well, they're failing miserably!

[Normal]

Originally Posted by melpetezrinski

I'll give you the "more on the market" but how did you come up with the 12% decline in price? I believe it to be more like 5-6%.

I’m not an expert and Citrus Grove may be different than say a community north of 466, but I am going off what a few sellers initially asked for their homes and what they had to settle for when they sold.

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by Arctic Fox

There are plenty of signs of a severe downturn in US property, with home sales down for 12 straight months in a row, the weakest set of numbers for more than a decade.

If the property market crashes, it will tip the economy into recession.

If there are losses on mortgages, it will threaten the stability of the financial markets and will determine what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates.

In 2008, the collapse of the subprime mortgage market triggered a global financial crisis.

You're correct, everyday more financial analysts and economists are going over to the "dark side" (recession). Not looking good, many looking for financial "shelter"; however, noticed gold is NOT shooting up in an explosive manner ! ? In MHO, Yellen is certainly NOT helping the situation ! In a broader sense, I am more concerned about the loss of faith in so many established entities AT ONCE; loss of faith in CDC, lack of faith in our ability to protect our own borders, lack of faith in our medical community's medicines and treatments, lack of faith in law enforcement, in the goal of our military, in the FBI, and most recently now NTSA, in the governments ability to determine the safety of water, food, air ( meat inspections in packing plants, minors used as labor, etc.). Not that such things have come up in the past, what concerns me is the "collective" loss of faith AT ONCE in so many established institutions.. you can even add another to that, our system of public schools. Loss of faith is (probably) the most important factor in the deterioration of a society... (China, opium wars, North Korea, Rome, Viet Nam, Cuba, etc. all these seemingly unrelated collapses... take a DEEP dive and they can all be traced to a lack of faith in those institutions holding the society together !

[Pairadocs]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

Well, they're failing miserably!

They sure are, and when the masses lose faith in their institutions (as I have comment before), it is NOT GOOD. PERCEPTION is everything in how secure a society "feels".

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Normal

I’m not an expert and Citrus Grove may be different than say a community north of 466, but I am going off what a few sellers initially asked for their homes and what they had to settle for when they sold.

Comparing asking prices is meaningless. Comparing SELLING prices is what matters...

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

The Federal Gov. is trying to prevent a downturn - they are NOT causing one!

Given the way they have been mismanaging the economy would not expect anyone to think that, even you.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by mrf0151

The housing market crash of 2008 hurt south florida by as high as 50%. Our area The Villages only went down 10-15%. Our market is very unique so stop the worry.

By 2009 OUR area was down around 40%. And stock price drop was a catastrophe nationwide.