[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Black Beauty

everything is eventual..

That's deep and HEAVY.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by MandoMan

I would say that used home sale prices in The Villages are down at least 10% since last summer, but at that point they were UP about 20% over the previous two years. Many would say that the prices now are more where they should be, but people selling their houses are getting less than they’d hoped for. Most of this is due to the need to raise interest rates. Two years ago you could buy houses for 3.5% interest, which is amazing and unusual. Now it’s more like 6%, which is much closer to the historical norm. However, that increased rate has cut down what people can afford or lenders will lend.

Subprime mortgages happened from greed—by lenders and buyers. Lenders loaned buyers far more money than they could afford to repay, and with less money down. That isn’t happening now. Buyers thought they were going to make killings buying and selling houses and accepted stupid risks like balloon payments they couldn’t pay without selling their houses for whatever they could get. I don’t think that is happening now, either. So I think we will be okay.

Homes are just a PART of the total US economy. The US economy is just PART of the WORLD economy. So we and the world could still have a downturn to a recession or a deep recession. The war in the Ukraine is a BIG factor in the FUTURE world economy. All those factors are integrated together.
........The world price of oil and gasoline is a BIG factor in the world economy and people in TV Bubble Land could help things by buying E-vehicles and E-golf carts, which would bring the price of gas DOWN ! Which IS like a stimulus to the economy.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Pairadocs

You're correct, everyday more financial analysts and economists are going over to the "dark side" (recession). Not looking good, many looking for financial "shelter"; however, noticed gold is NOT shooting up in an explosive manner ! ? In MHO, Yellen is certainly NOT helping the situation ! In a broader sense, I am more concerned about the loss of faith in so many established entities AT ONCE; loss of faith in CDC, lack of faith in our ability to protect our own borders, lack of faith in our medical community's medicines and treatments, lack of faith in law enforcement, in the goal of our military, in the FBI, and most recently now NTSA, in the governments ability to determine the safety of water, food, air ( meat inspections in packing plants, minors used as labor, etc.). Not that such things have come up in the past, what concerns me is the "collective" loss of faith AT ONCE in so many established institutions.. you can even add another to that, our system of public schools. Loss of faith is (probably) the most important factor in the deterioration of a society... (China, opium wars, North Korea, Rome, Viet Nam, Cuba, etc. all these seemingly unrelated collapses... take a DEEP dive and they can all be traced to a lack of faith in those institutions holding the society together !

Public schools are being systematically torn apart. America had a good public school system in the 1950s and 60s. Notice that is WHEN America had a REAL middle class. You can't have a STRONG America without a STRONG middle class. And you can't have a STRONG middle class without a STRONG Public School System and a tax system to support Public School excellence !

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Public schools are being systematically torn apart. America had a good public school system in the 1950s and 60s. Notice that is WHEN America had a REAL middle class. You can't have a STRONG America without a STRONG middle class. And you can't have a STRONG middle class without a STRONG Public School System and a tax system to support Public School excellence !

We are from NYC and back than had a pretty good school system.

As time went on they had more and more administrators and allowed the teachers union to become all powerful and eventually cared mostly about salaries of the teachers and would not let incompetent teachers be let go.

In NY they have a building where teachers who for various reasons are not trusted to go near students go and read newspapers all day while earning their normal salary. That money would be better utilized paying teachers.

[kkingston57]

Originally Posted by ithos

There will not be another 2008 like housing crash until there is another housing glut and renting makes more financial sense than owning a home.

Home prices can and probably will decline due to a broader economic downturn caused by the Federal Governments fiscal irresponsibility in running up tens of trillions in debt.

Bet that most of the downturn is from rising interest rates and that nasty word inflation. At least now buyers can get a better price on a house and when mortgage rates go down they can re finance. At least they are not looking at 12% interest.

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

By 2009 OUR area was down around 40%. And stock price drop was a catastrophe nationwide.

Why didn't the government do anything to stop it?

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Homes are just a PART of the total US economy. The US economy is just PART of the WORLD economy. So we and the world could still have a downturn to a recession or a deep recession. The war in the Ukraine is a BIG factor in the FUTURE world economy. All those factors are integrated together.
........The world price of oil and gasoline is a BIG factor in the world economy and people in TV Bubble Land could help things by buying E-vehicles and E-golf carts, which would bring the price of gas DOWN ! Which IS like a stimulus to the economy.

But would it save the coral reefs?

Quick question (which you have failed to answer, multiple times)...

Do YOU drive an EV, or have an E-Golf Cart? A simple yes/no will suffice...

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

We are from NYC and back than had a pretty good school system.

As time went on they had more and more administrators and allowed the teachers union to become all powerful and eventually cared mostly about salaries of the teachers and would not let incompetent teachers be let go.

In NY they have a building where teachers who for various reasons are not trusted to go near students go and read newspapers all day while earning their normal salary. That money would be better utilized paying teachers.

The "rubber room"?

Is the guy who took over a table, with multiple computers, to run his real estate business still there?

And to your point, there is plenty of tax money available for schools.The admins simply squander that money...

[JMintzer]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Public schools are being systematically torn apart. America had a good public school system in the 1950s and 60s. Notice that is WHEN America had a REAL middle class. You can't have a STRONG America without a STRONG middle class. And you can't have a STRONG middle class without a STRONG Public School System and a tax system to support Public School excellence !

We have students, with zero home supervision, beating other students and teachers...

But yeah, let's throw more money at the problem...

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by JMintzer

The "rubber room"?

Is the guy who took over a table, with multiple computers, to run his real estate business still there?

And to your point, there is plenty of tax money available for schools.The admins simply squander that money...

I seem to remember that it is called the rubber room.

Administrators do waste a huge portion of the school tax money. I seem to recall somewhere along the line they went to community school districts which managed to employ a huge number of administrators adding nothing to education.

Worked out very well for our kids that we were relocated to Va which had a much better school system.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Given the way they have been mismanaging the economy would not expect anyone to think that, even you.

"Even me", like I am a ghoul with 2 heads. Ok be that way!

[Djean1981]

Nah.. It may be a down turn, but not a crash - especially, for the states on the receiving end of the migration from some states.

[mrf0151]

I have had a home here for 20 years and keep a close eye on the housing market. Your facts for The Villages are wrong. Doom and Gloomers are scaring you perhaps. To date according to Redfin, The TV home value same month 2022-2023 is only down .85%.

[ElDiabloJoe]

The fact of the matter is this, IMHO: Even if you bought a wildly inflated home in Southern California (or most anywhere - but they have fairly consistent longterm value increases) at the very peak of the 2007/8/9 market, that house would be a bargain if you bought it today at that price.

I suspect that is the case in the majority of localized areas throughout the nation.

[Bay Kid]

Originally Posted by mrf0151

I have had a home here for 20 years and keep a close eye on the housing market. Your facts for The Villages are wrong. Doom and Gloomers are scaring you perhaps. To date according to Redfin, The TV home value same month 2022-2023 is only down .85%.

Location is still of great importance. Some places the values are coming down. Cities with high crime, high taxes, etc.

We are The Villages like nowhere else in the world!