[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

The last recession resulted in several trillions of dollars of lost wealth. Some recovered, some didn't I would say for those that didn't it was significant.

In my case, I lost my 401k, my credit rating, home and wife. 10 years later I have almost recovered most, but not all.

So, yes in most of YOUR lives it may not have been detectable. But for myself and MANY others lives it was very detectable. Politics had NOTHING to do with it, economics did.

Must not been one of the insider’s ? Wall Street is rigged, it takes dive if someone spills quart of oil some where. Just one of the tactics to steal money, sell high and buy low if you are one of The insiders. I seen through the racket 25 years ago and got out and will never invest again.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Must not been one of the insider’s ? Wall Street is rigged, it takes dive if someone spills quart of oil some where. Just one of the tactics to steal money, sell high and buy low if you are one of The insiders. I seen through the racket 25 years ago and got out and will never invest again.

Yet our government raves about increases and says it represents great success and yesterday blamed the Fed chairman referring to him as "clueless" and the indicators used as "crazy"

Again, does anyone remember press conferences and hard questions and follow ups ?????

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by Kenswing

Could have just as easily said 66 percent of economists not worried about a recession..

And THIS is why facts and research (and the point of my earlier post)...are so important.

It's not "whether," it's just the year...in question (click here)

More than 70% of economists think a US recession will strike by the end of 2021

In the survey by the National Association for Business Economics, out Monday, 72% of economists predicted that a recession would occur by the end of 2021. That's up from 67% in February and according to data gleaned from more than 200 respondents.

The new figure combines the 38% of economists who said they expect a recession to strike in 2020 with the 34% who said they see one befalling the US economy in 2021.

So the TRUTH is, that the 34% predicting it happening in 2021 is ADDED to the 38% who think it will happen by 2020 (making the 72%).

Ironically, I missed the fact that the exact same thing...is in the link in post #28.

What a difference...the TRUTH and FACTS make.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore

And THIS is why facts and research (and the point of my earlier post)...are so important.

It's not "whether," it's just the year...in question (click here)



So the TRUTH is, that the 34% predicting it happening in 2021 is ADDED to the 38% who think it will happen by 2020 (making the 72%).

What a difference...the TRUTH and FACTS make.

Also, few if any are laying this at the feet of the current administration, recessions are cyclical and its that time again.

What some are concerned about is the Fed lowering interest rates, and the administration asking for more. When a recession happens, being able to lower interest rates is an important tool to help soften the landing.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

Also, few if any are laying this at the feet of the current administration, recessions are cyclical and its that time again.

What some are concerned about is the Fed lowering interest rates, and the administration asking for more. When a recession happens, being able to lower interest rates is an important tool to help soften the landing.

The exact same thing I mentioned in a post yesterday.

Those weapons that can help soften the blow of a recession (ie: tax cuts/lower interest rates/massive deregulation/etc.) have already been used...keeping this expansion going.

Economic weapons aren't any good...if there's no ammunition for them.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan

Also, few if any are laying this at the feet of the current administration, recessions are cyclical and its that time again.

What some are concerned about is the Fed lowering interest rates, and the administration asking for more. When a recession happens, being able to lower interest rates is an important tool to help soften the landing.

Serious question....this trade war has nothing to do with the economic downturn in your opinion.? Do you believe, as our government does that China is writing us checks each time we raise the tariff ? The FED believes that the tariffs have an impact even though American businesses have said over the past year that the tariffs and retaliatory measures have forced them to increase prices, delay investment and cut jobs.

[ColdNoMore]

Originally Posted by Bucco

Serious question....this trade war has nothing to do with the economic downturn in your opinion.? Do you believe, as our government does that China is writing us checks each time we raise the tariff ? The FED believes that the tariffs have an impact even though American businesses have said over the past year that the tariffs and retaliatory measures have forced them to increase prices, delay investment and cut jobs.

Only the economically ignorant (or highly gullible), believe that tariffs are collected as income by a government and the companies paying them (the importer, NOT the seller) simply absorb the extra expense/cost...and doesn't pass it on to the eventual buyer of the product(s).

The truth about tariffs (Import Here)

What’s NOT true is that tariffs on goods from China are paid by the Chinese, or that tariffs on goods from Mexico are paid by Mexicans.

When the United States levies a tariff on something, it is the US importer who pays the tariff, not the foreign exporter. A tariff is a border tax on the buyer, not the seller—tariffs make it more expensive for a buyer to import a good into the country.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by Bucco

Serious question....this trade war has nothing to do with the economic downturn in your opinion.? Do you believe, as our government does that China is writing us checks each time we raise the tariff ? The FED believes that the tariffs have an impact even though American businesses have said over the past year that the tariffs and retaliatory measures have forced them to increase prices, delay investment and cut jobs.

Serious answer...I have no idea. If you want to know what I believe? I believe the tariffs are not helping the situation. I do not believe the tariffs are making us money.

But those are my beliefs.

I will leave the analysis to the "experts" that have spent their lives trying to understand global economic policy.

[GrumpyOldMan]

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore

Only the economically ignorant (or highly gullible), believe that tariffs are collected as income by a government and the companies paying them (the importer, NOT the seller) simply absorb the extra expense/cost...and doesn't pass it on to the eventual buyer of the product(s).

The truth about tariffs (Import Here)

I do find it interesting how some people always point out that higher wages negotiated by unions (higher cost of doing business) are always passed on to the consumer, but some how higher product/material costs (tariffs) are not passed onto the consumer. Just saying...

And somehow soy bean farmers need a subsidy to reduce the impact of the reduced sales they are seeing, while average Joe consumer is some how not seeing those same impacts and do doesn't need the same relief.

I am sure it makes sense some how.

[ColdNoMore]

For anyone who may have been confused by the misdirection/falseness (whether intentional, or just through a lack of research effort) of Post #28 (and a couple of other ones)...I'll make it real simple.


POKE HERE

74% of economists in survey see US recession by end of 2021

FACTS MATTER.

[Polar Bear]

I agree that costs (tariffs) get passed on to the consumer. But that means higher costs for the products. Higher costs almost always mean fewer sales. So it seems to me the country providing the product will still see reduced revenue.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Facts do matter and so do reporters and so do sources. Marcy Gordon whose article you linked us to, is not in the business of surveys or has a background in economics. It appears she is a travel writer and a an expert on wine. See here;

marcy gordon, - Bing

She is quoting what could be very interesting information if it was handed to me by someone who is expert on such findings. I still say that seeing our good economy tank is a source of joy for you.

I don't usually read yahoo news, but because of this post, I checked it out for myself. Marcie Gordon isn't the one coming up with the data. She is writing ABOUT the data. The data is the actual data. It is factual, no matter who is writing about it.

The facts really are the facts. If some 4th grader wrote about it for her math class, it would still be true.

If one of your pre-school kids pointed to the actual survey results from the actual survey, and said "MOMMY MINE!" the results would be exactly the same.

[Aloha1]

[QUOTE=ColdNoMore;1674409][SIZE="2"]
Source?[QUOTE]

You are quoting a different metric from a different source. My post referenced the gross increase.

[Aloha1]

All this talk about the "Great Seers", Economists, reminds me of the oft quoted comment that "the majority of economists have successfully predicted 10 of the last 6 recessions".

Attitude and the media matter. If the media spews slanted news as it appears to be doing again, attitude gets negative. And when attitude gets negative....

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by Jazuela

I don't usually read yahoo news, but because of this post, I checked it out for myself. Marcie Gordon isn't the one coming up with the data. She is writing ABOUT the data. The data is the actual data. It is factual, no matter who is writing about it.

The facts really are the facts. If some 4th grader wrote about it for her math class, it would still be true.

If one of your pre-school kids pointed to the actual survey results from the actual survey, and said "MOMMY MINE!" the results would be exactly the same.

I am thinking they could have found somebody else to write the article. A nice math major would be good, or even a person with a business education. I am growing so tired of the media and their negative headlines and then something altogether different in the body of the article. And I am tired of people on this forum who are cheering for an economic downturn just to get back at the President who is a bumble mouth granted.. THAT is ugly and very transparent.

But at least the man has accomplished many good things including a robust economy, beefing up the military so we won't be sitting ducks and trying to keep the border secure which is extremely popular from both sides. I think it is safe to say that Americans welcome and applaud all hardworking people with good values and strong family ethics and do not want drug and human trafficking.

According to a MSN poll I read yesterday, 70% of those polled wanted strong borders.