As much as significant changes to both Medicare and Social Security need to be a part of any plan to reduce government spending and begin to move towards a balanced budget, do you think that any of the candidates for federal office in 2012 will make that a part of their campaign platform? And if they do, what chance do you think they have of winning election?

In a poll last week, even members of the Tea Party who were polled rejected the idea of reducing the entitlements of the Social Security Act by a 70% margin. Will any fiscal conservative run against that groundswell of opposition? Will any of the candidates from either party tell the truth that they all know to be true--that significant cuts to all entitlement programs will ultimately be necessary? Or will they simply avoid addressing the issue directly, and continue the harangue of soundbite-worthy negative criticisms of their opponents in an attempt to get elected to one of those sweet inside-the-beltway jobs?

Want my guess?

In the special election for the House seat in New York's 26th district Tuesday, the only real issue was Rep. Paul's voucher plan for Medicare. In a district with a whopping 27,000 voter Republican plurality, a little known Democrat won rather handily. The seemingly very credible Republican candidate initially agreed she supported Paul's legislation but then just couldn't shake off the Medicare noose around her neck. Of course the drastic cuts in social welfare programming and aid to the poor in Paul's proposal didn't help the Republican either. Being a wealthy businesswoman herself she didn't have much of a comeback to "deprive the needy of help while extending tax cuts and loopholes to the rich."

Of course the 2012 candidates will do anything not to get pinned down as favoring reductions in entitlement programs. And in the end I think Obama will be reelected and the Democrats will regain some strength because they will defend entitlements more completely, despite the deficit. Unfortunately, the deficit is nowhere near as real to millions of voters as their job and benefits, and to them not the main reason why and how they vote.

Pawlenty is running away from Ryan's plan as fast as he can. Says he has his "own" plan that he'll announce later. We'll see.