[Carol@TV]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

I have five different weather apps on my phone, and they usually have five different forecasts. I haven't found any of them to be accurate. I look at all of them before heading out for a ride on my bike and have been caught in the rain several times despite none of them predicting rain.

[sounding]

Originally Posted by Carol@TV

I have five different weather apps on my phone, and they usually have five different forecasts. I haven't found any of them to be accurate. I look at all of them before heading out for a ride on my bike and have been caught in the rain several times despite none of them predicting rain.

They are all wrong because the weather (and climate) models are all wrong ... well at least they get the bigger picture a little better, but the small scale stuff is still way beyond today's model capabilities. The reason is the computer grid spacing is still too large to model individual cloud and storm elements, plus the time-steps within the models are still too large to track individual storms. This is all explained in The Weather Club (The Villages Weather Club) which has a complete presentation about this subject. In the meantime, I only use real-time weather radar know what's happening -- before I go out for walks or whatever ... here's the link ... Current Weather Conditions: Florida Radar Loop | South Florida Water Management District

[ChilePepper]

You can't predict the weather in Central Florida unless a hurricane or a polar bomb is headed here.

[SusanStCatherine]

"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - George Carlin

[Bay Kid]

Just give me an app with a good radar.

[OhioBuckeye]

Same answer but 29% to 60% chance it won’t rain. One way there’s more of a chance it will rain & the other way there’s more of a chance it will rain. We could be like the govt. we could collect money like our govt. wants & pay Mother Nature to make it rain or not, just like they want to do now collect money to pay Mother Nature to have it get very cold so it doesn’t melt the ice on both poles! This is a bunch of BS!

[sounding]

Originally Posted by OhioBuckeye

Same answer but 29% to 60% chance it won’t rain. One way there’s more of a chance it will rain & the other way there’s more of a chance it will rain. We could be like the govt. we could collect money like our govt. wants & pay Mother Nature to make it rain or not, just like they want to do now collect money to pay Mother Nature to have it get very cold so it doesn’t melt the ice on both poles! This is a bunch of BS!

Be like the professionals - get a crystal ball ... Amazon.com

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby

WeatherBug has stations scattered throughout the area. The closest one to me is at the southeast corner of the Historic Section, on Tarrson. The second closest is across the golf cart bridge on Chula Vista.

Those stations only report not forecast.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by sounding

Be like the professionals - get a crystal ball ... Amazon.com

Or just look out window for clouds if they are coming chance of rain. It they are going not so much.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by Bay Kid

Just give me an app with a good radar.

Real Time Lightning Map :: LightningMaps.org

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by ChilePepper

You can't predict the weather in Central Florida unless a hurricane or a polar bomb is headed here.

Polar bomb = old world cold front.

[Byte1]

What a great job! Only job where you can be wrong most of the time and not be fired.

[bopat]

Weather forecasting can be challenging in any location, but Florida's unique geography and climate make it particularly difficult to predict the weather with accuracy. Here are some reasons why:

1. Complex weather patterns: Florida's location near the tropics and its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean create a complex interplay of weather patterns. This can lead to sudden changes in temperature, humidity, and precipitation, making it difficult to accurately forecast the weather.
2. Hurricane season: Florida is located in the heart of hurricane country, and the state experiences an average of 5-6 hurricanes or tropical storms each year. These powerful storms can cause significant damage and disrupt weather patterns for days or even weeks, making it difficult to predict the weather during hurricane season (June to November).
3. Warm ocean waters: The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean surrounding Florida are warm throughout the year, which can lead to rapid changes in temperature and humidity. This warm water also fuels intense tropical storms and hurricanes, further complicating weather forecasting.
4. Coastal geography: Florida's long coastline and numerous bays, inlets, and estuaries create a variety of microclimates that can affect the weather. For example, the Florida Keys have a different climate than the mainland, and the Gulf Coast has a different climate than the Atlantic Coast.
5. Diverse topography: Florida's landscape is diverse, with flat coastal areas, rolling hills, and elevated terrain in the central and northern parts of the state. This variation in topography can cause differences in temperature and humidity, making it harder to predict the weather.
6. Weak jet stream: The jet stream, a high-altitude wind current that plays a significant role in shaping weather patterns across North America, is typically weak or non-existent over Florida. This means that weather systems can stall or become stationary over the state, leading to prolonged periods of hot and humid weather or persistent rain and thunderstorms.
7. Urban heat island effect: The rapid development and urbanization of Florida's cities, particularly in southern Florida, can create heat islands that amplify temperatures and alter local microclimates. This can make it difficult to accurately predict the weather in these areas.
8. Limited observational data: While Florida has a network of weather observation stations and radar systems, there are still limited observations in certain areas, particularly in rural parts of the state. This can make it harder for meteorologists to gather accurate data and make informed predictions about the weather.

[OhioBuckeye]

You’re exactly right!

[wisbad1]

Originally Posted by bagboy

The chance of rain at 5pm is usually pretty high if you listen to our local radio on air personnel. Sometimes I think they try to discourage square entertainment attendance.

Forecaster wants to golf.