[retiredguy123]

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

[Michael 61]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

I’ve noticed the same. I’ve always found the weather channel app close to accurate in other places I’ve lived, but here it is way off continually, to the point I don’t even bother with it anymore. When I first moved here, I would cancel/rearrange/modify my plans based on the prediction of rain (like over 70%), that never occurred.

[Stu from NYC]

They should probably find new forecasters. Or send them back to school

[bagboy]

The chance of rain at 5pm is usually pretty high if you listen to our local radio on air personnel. Sometimes I think they try to discourage square entertainment attendance.

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by bagboy

The chance of rain at 5pm is usually pretty high if you listen to our local radio on air personnel. Sometimes I think they try to discourage square entertainment attendance.

Well, I expect weather forecasters to base their forecast on hard, scientific data, not on their own agenda. Obviously, they don't.

[davem4616]

I look at the weather apps, but I don't trust them.

I almost 'bagged' a planned 2-night vacation a few months ago because the weather apps all forecasted severe T-storms in Clearwater.

I ended up going (with an umbrella) .... the weather was perfect.

Next time around (if there is a next time) I plan on being a weather forecaster. When you're right everyone says "Well, he called it." When you're wrong, you get a pass and people think, "Thank goodness he had it wrong." It's a win / win career choice.

[Bogie Shooter]

Originally Posted by bagboy

The chance of rain at 5pm is usually pretty high if you listen to our local radio on air personnel. Sometimes I think they try to discourage square entertainment attendance.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

Same here, sprinkling this morning, wasn't feeling great, cancelled golf due to large cloud on the radar moving towards TV. . . no rain since 8 AM. . wife is irritated that I cancelled for rain and none happened. .

that forecast also caused my sprinkler to weather delay for rain most of the summer.

Rain actually came for a few minutes at 6PM. . . light and not the flood TWC was predicting. .

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Same here, sprinkling this morning, wasn't feeling great, cancelled golf due to large cloud on the radar moving towards TV. . . no rain since 8 AM. . wife is irritated that I cancelled for rain and none happened. .

that forecast also caused my sprinkler to weather delay for rain most of the summer.

Rain actually came for a few minutes at 6PM. . . light and not the flood TWC was predicting. .

We now have a hard drizzle, oops now pouring over here. Excuse me if I keep it here for an hour or so as we need it

[Pugchief]

Soooo, is there another app that has more reliable forecasts? From what I can see, they are all wrong randomly, but not necessarily at the same time.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

Soooo, is there another app that has more reliable forecasts? From what I can see, they are all wrong randomly, but not necessarily at the same time.

I like to look out our window or sometimes our driveway look around and forecast.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

It was raining up at my end of the Villages for awhile, starting some time around 3pm. By 3:30 it was pouring in some spots. It stopped around 3:45 and the sun came out a little while later. And then, around 5, the sky was almost black just to the north of our house.

WeatherBug is usually pretty accurate, so that's what I use on my cell phone.

[Topspinmo]

Forecast really are for Orlando and space coast. We don’t matter way up here.

[NotGolfer]

If you live in FL long enough you'll know that the rains can be spotty....for instance it's pouring at LSL but the sun is shining in Colony. Was talking with a person (I didn't know) last week about how a lot of the weather patterns seem to hit all around us but it's pouring in Leesburg or in Belleview but it's passed us. We'll see black sky to the east (or west) and hear thunder but nothing happens. Squalls also happen while the sun is shining. Weather here isn't like what we were used to up north.

[westernrider75]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

No different here than anywhere else we have lived, seems like they guess at what might happen, if it does they look great if not, oh well things changed in the upper atmosphere!