[vinricci]

Same thing goes for an economist…

[bobeaston]

The days of a true meteorologist looking out the window and making a forecast are long gone, ...as is the personal bias of your favorite weather forecast personality. Yes, some offer their own spin, but they're working from a forecast handed to them by a service.

Weather forecasts have been computer generated for decades. There are only a few weather services offering subscriptions to their service. Each has slightly differing models of how they predict. When you see a forecast on a TV station, or a website, it is a derivative of one of those services, and they will vary depending on which service that broadcaster subscribes to.

Each model has quite a range of possibilities built into them, such as typical summer weather almost anywhere includes a chance of pop-up thunderstorms. Here, we're complaining about the accuracy of the timing, which is quite "soft" for most forecast services.

There are models which can be very precise, down to grids with squares about 100 yards on a side, but those are very expensive to maintain and not part of the usual subscription offers.

So, we make do with general forecasts ... and the meteorological variables of living on a rather narrow peninsula that has water bodies on each side with their own variables.

[spinner1001]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

The only thing they get right consistently is sunrise and sunset.

[bowlingal]

retiredguy. you must be new to Florida. It's been like that for the 10 years I have been living here. 70-80% rain chances does not mean we here will get a drop .Even showing the radar with red and green and orange passing right over us does not mean we are getting rain. And you can be in sunshine where you are, and 1/2 mile down the road they are getting an onslaught of water. Hard to get used to for sure.

[Dilligas]

Welcome to Florida. The weather in FL is not like weather up north where you get fronts moving through. In FL, the winds come off the Atlantic and the Gulf. If you live on either coast, the weather moves in from the waters. If you live in the middle, the weather is created from the meeting of the winds. If you watch the afternoon weather maps, the storms/rain pop up like popcorn and move through or dissipate for no reason. Most areas in central and southern FL will produce weather pockets (pouring down rain across the street and dry where you stand). Major weather systems like Hurricanes are more predictable. If you don’t like the weather forecast …. Wait, it’ll change quickly.

[EzHighway]

The forecast for today September 28, 2023

"It is going to rain but not everyone will get it"

I hear that often, that just about covers it for all. :-/

[coleprice]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

Because Florida sits between the Gulf and Atlantic, the weather is difficult to predict. The weather software models are decent, but they aren't accurate enough to predict to the hour with high reliability. I look at the hourly forecasts to get a general idea of the weather that is currently predicted, then I watch the Doppler Radar an hour or two before an event to see what has actually formed. Even the Doppler forecasts for an hour or two into the future lack accuracy. Also, forecasts are for a general area like "The Villages". They aren't for the specific location in which you live.

[Windguy]

Why are people so quick to dream up conspiracies? There are no agendas here!

The problem is that to model the atmosphere in a fine-enough resolution for accurate, pinpoint forecasts requires computers MUCH larger that we have.

Another thing to consider is that up north weather is more regional. You get an overcast sky and it rains about the same everywhere in the area. We get our rain here from isolated thunderstorms. It can be pouring on one side of the street and sunny on the other side. So, instead of getting a forecast for your specific yard, we get general trends for our area (i.e., there will or will not be thunderstorms in the area).

As for the general trend that forecasts of rain disappear as the day proceeds, would you rather be told there might be rain and there isn’t, or would you rather be told it will be sunny all day and then be faced with a thunderstorm?

[ckcapaul]

I have spoken with meteorologists, and was told that any forecast beyond an hour is a best guess. Too many things happen to have a very accurate forecast.

[hootie1126]

Farmer once told me. If I farmed based on the weather forecast I'd be broke. If you follow the weather forecast daily they get it wrong far more than they get it right.

[DonnaNi4os]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

I’ve found that checking the radar on my weather app is the most accurate. Don’t forget, the weathermen are reporting on central FL. It may be raining in Orlando and not in The Villages. Also don’t forget how very large a community we are now. It may be raining in Brownwood and beautiful in Spanish Springs. Check the radar and if you don’t already have one, download a weather app and frequently check the radar.

[ChristiZimm]

I believe weather apps info, television forcasters, etc are just educated guessers. Sometimes right, most times incorrect.

[Woodbutcher]

Originally Posted by Pugchief

Soooo, is there another app that has more reliable forecasts? From what I can see, they are all wrong randomly, but not necessarily at the same time.

AccuWeather.com seems to be a little more accurate than TWC. None are 100% due to our location between two huge water bodies. Also, the heat generated by all the asphalt in our area creates a lot of the "popcorn" storms which are almost impossible to predict where they "pop".
I don't use any apps. I just use a browser and go to their website.

[SusanStCatherine]

I have used minutecast for Wildwood and it is wrong quite often. Other apps - I have gone for a walk with 0% chance of rain and got rained upon.

[cjrjck]

Florida is a peninsula surrounded by warm water. Sporadic storms can generate almost out of anywhere and can be extremely difficult to predict. Even if the conditions are ripe, determining which areas will be hit and which won't is even harder. Up north, you typically are dealing with large weather fronts which can be patterned and the science is somewhat more established. Still, I am sure meteorologists catch their fair share of flak just about everywhere.