[maistocars]

Weather is very unpredictable - it can be raining on one side of the street and not the other or at SS or LSL and not Brownwood. It's Florida!

[Rodneysblue]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

That’s why I rely on Rock weather.
If the rock is hot to the touch, it’s hot.
If it’s wet, it’s raining.
If it’s rolling across the ground, hang on to something.

[jmsturm]

The problem is we live on a peninsula. The weather moves in from one coast or the other or both at the same time! This makes accurate forecasting very difficult, even with AI. Makes weather forecasting interesting and very nerve wracking during hurricane season!!

[buzzy]

One thing that I appreciate about my iphone's weather app is the announcement of rain starting in 10 minutes. It's usually correct to the minute. So, I run outside and pull my golf cart into the garage.

[OhioBuckeye]

Yea, but remember at 71% it will rain that means 29% chance it won’t rain, the other forecast says 40% it will rain but remember there’s a 60% chance it won’t rain. Take your choice!

[Nana2Teddy]

All I care about is the lightning. When the Lightning Pro app on my phone starts popping up with notifications that there’s lightning 6 miles or less from us we start looking for shelter if we are out in our golf cart. I’m very afraid of the lightning having never in my lifetime experienced anything even remotely close to this weather we have here.

[dougawhite]

Why rain showers go around TV but many times miss us? I believe because we have such a high concentration of air conditioners that each blow hot air up into the atmosphere all day. This man-made updraft pushes weather systems out of the way as they cross TV area.

[rsibole]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

Weather forecast are not for a pinpoint location, somewhere like your house or front yard. Instead they cover a much larger geographical area, sometimes of many, many square miles. When a forecast calls for say a 50% of rain it simply means rain is predicted for 50% of the covered geographical area, not a 50-50% of rain over the entire area. So, when you see a 100% chance of rain, you know it will rain at your house and in your front yard, anything less than 100% means you may or not see rain.

[midiwiz]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

oh the newbies.... LOL the reason the forecast changes so often and drastically is quite simple. On one side you have the gulf, basically the 'heat sink' only 2.5 hrs to the east is the atlantic 'cool breeze' depending on how systems & airflow moves across the state determines when and where the rain/storms will occur. sometimes gulf breeze is stronger therefore closer to cocoa beach... sometimes atlantic is straonger therefore Tampa area... often they meet mid-state. where mid-state is unpredictable. about 6-9 years ago I could tell you that somewhere around 3-3:15 pm Orlando would get nailed. it was a recipe. considering what's been happening on both waters it's really not the weather people or anything, most time what is at 8am won't be by 3pm.

Short version - Welcome to Florida.

[dtennent]

How our memories dim with age. When I was young, the weather forecast would say "chance of showers tomorrow." Not 40% at 3 PM or 60 % at 5 PM. So we would take raincoats or umbrellas with us. Today, we get upset when the forecast of 70% chance of rain at 4 PM doesn't result in rain at 4 PM. I am just glad I don't have to predict the results in an incredibly dynamic system as our weather. Sort of reminds me of when the marketing folks would come and ask me to predict when my team would come up with an invention to solve the problem we were working on.

[RcCalais]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

The only place I have been where the weather predictions were accurate was in Dubai, "Hot and sunny"

[MikeC]

I am not siding with local weather people but I am sure it is very difficult when you live on a peninsula as we do here. I am sure they don’t forecast rain in order to discourage you from going to the square 😂

[Carlsondm]

Weather forecasting involves some hard data, probability of wind speeds and directions at different elevations, knowledge of local patterns, computer model reliability for an area, etc. At times it may be more an art than a science. Best professional judgement erring on the side of safety.
Take a few classes or look at their training before you throw people away. The climate crisis is real and their job is getting more complicated.

[Two Bills]

Many moons ago when working in Ireland, our weather forecast went something like, "if you can't see the mountains, it's raining, if you can, it's going to rain!"

[Kelevision]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Every morning, I check the Weather Channel app to see if it is going to rain. Today, it said that there was a 71 percent chance for rain at 5 pm. But, now, at 3 pm, the chance for rain at 5 pm is only 40 percent. I understand that a forecast can change, but this pattern occurs almost every day. The chance for rain at 5 pm is very high in the early morning, but then it decreases as the time gets closer to 5 pm. It almost never increases. It happens so often that I believe that the forecasters are intentionally publishing a higher chance for rain in the morning than the data actually suggests. Has anyone else noticed this trend and is there a logical explanation?

Hahaha, it’s Florida!!! It can downpour at Lake Sumter Landing and not rain at all at Brownwood. The percentage is the coverage area, not a percentage of rain. If there’s a 70% chance that means it WILL rain in 70% of that area. Not there’s a 70% chance it will rain.