[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Debating with another person who has no credentials to make sense of this on a public forum without valid actual names is really what we seem to be doing. sigh.

This poster, Graciegirl, ago 80, previous pre-school teacher and card carrying mother and grandmother asks OP this question in a different way.

What percentage of people who are hospitalized for Covid-19 die.

By age.

Thank you.

The CDC best estimate for Infection Fatality Rate for age 65+ is 1.3% I think this is calculated using both confirmed cases and estimated asymptomatic cases.

The older you are, the death rate goes up. But even more important than age are underlying medical issues. If you are healthy but old you have a much better chance of surviving. If you are unhealthy and old, your odds go way down. Your race also matters. People with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease and diabetes were hospitalized six times as often as otherwise healthy individuals infected with the novel coronavirus during the first four months of the pandemic, and they died 12 times as often, according to a federal health report Monday.

Your odds of dying go up if disease is serious enough to be hospitalized and even more if put on a ventilator. They are not using ventilators as much now because they don't seem to work all that well.

Here is a Wapo article about the CDC report, and the CDC report itself. Lots of info in the CDC report to assess individual risk based on age and health.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ple-cdc-finds/

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States, January 22–May 30, 2020 | MMWR

From an anonymous unnamed poster who seems to post more scientific info and links to back it up than anyone else and wisely chooses not to reveal identity and personal info on the internet.

[Yucatan2]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Debating with another person who has no credentials to make sense of this on a public forum without valid actual names is really what we seem to be doing. sigh.

This poster, Graciegirl, ago 80, previous pre-school teacher and card carrying mother and grandmother asks OP this question in a different way.

What percentage of people who are hospitalized for Covid-19 die.

By age.

Thank you.

Gracie, you can see this for yourself on the Florida COVID website here: ww11.doh.state.fl.us
This is the line list of deaths in Florida since they first started keeping the records.
They are listed county by county. Just scroll down through the pages and pages until you get to the county you are interested in. Every age is listed and the date of their death.
I guess you still would not know what percentage of these people are dying in the hospital on a ventilator however. But you do get a sense that most people who die of COVID are quite elderly, many of whom may have been going to die anyway at these advanced ages. I do note that in Broward county, the last deaths dated 7/1 through 7/11, 17 people died, and 9 of them were under age 55.

[zendog3]

I don't think Sweden is the best model to look to for fighting pandemic. Look at S. Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, even China. Those countries have done a much better job of fighting the disease. Some have a serious handicap like a lot of population crammed into small spaces. What they did well is jump on the problem with force when it was small. You can contact trace and isolate when your country is having only a few cases each day. No way to do that when you have 15,000 cases in a day. Putting this genie in the tub is impossible, we are beyond control. In New Zealand and Australia the people had confidence in their leaders and a social cohesiveness. They believed their leaders when they said it as a serious problem that required everyone to sacrifice for the good of all. And their leaders were forceful leaders against an enemy of their people. In the Asian countries that have a cultural norm for cooperation that leaders exploited to fight the disease. They gave up part of their freedom to fight a common threat.

Correspond that with the US. We have a fractured and decisive society. We have little national cohesiveness, with a lot of people unwilling to sacrifice any of their freedom for the common good. Even when the facts are known, a fair percentage of the population are unwilling to accept them and inside cling to magical thinking and hope instead of science. And, it must be said, when the problem was clear to our best scientists, many of our leaders chose to ignore science and spread happy-talk and unrealistic optimistic thinking instead of LEADING -- which is asking all of us to join together to fight the disease.

Our sense of freedom is our strength, but without an equal sense of responsibility to one another it is our weakness.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by zendog3

And, it must be said, when the problem was clear to our best scientists, many of our leaders chose to ignore science and spread happy-talk and unrealistic optimistic thinking instead of LEADING -- which is asking all of us to join together to fight the disease.

January 21. Fauci: This is not a major threat for the people of the United States. And this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about.

Feb 17 Fauci: There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask, the risk is miniscule, people should be more worried about the annual flu.

March 9 Fauci: "If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship...."

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

The CDC best estimate for Infection Fatality Rate for age 65+ is 1.3% I think this is calculated using both confirmed cases and estimated asymptomatic cases.

The older you are, the death rate goes up. But even more important than age are underlying medical issues. If you are healthy but old you have a much better chance of surviving. If you are unhealthy and old, your odds go way down. Your race also matters. People with underlying medical conditions such as heart disease and diabetes were hospitalized six times as often as otherwise healthy individuals infected with the novel coronavirus during the first four months of the pandemic, and they died 12 times as often, according to a federal health report Monday.

Your odds of dying go up if disease is serious enough to be hospitalized and even more if put on a ventilator. They are not using ventilators as much now because they don't seem to work all that well.

Here is a Wapo article about the CDC report, and the CDC report itself. Lots of info in the CDC report to assess individual risk based on age and health.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ple-cdc-finds/

Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States, January 22–May 30, 2020 | MMWR

From an anonymous unnamed poster who seems to post more scientific info and links to back it up than anyone else and wisely chooses not to reveal identity and personal info on the internet.

Now the CDC says old people are dropping like flies.
COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

Not anonymous really at all, Graciegirl.

[rphil11ort]

What bothers me if you die because of a heart attach or drinking your self to death but have the virus you are counted as a corona death. not the way we should be looking at this

[BamaBoy451]

Originally Posted by rphil11ort

What bothers me if you die because of a heart attach or drinking your self to death but have the virus you are counted as a corona death. not the way we should be looking at this

Bothers me too. Legally it's medical fraud and should be treated as such.

[EastCoastDawg]

Originally Posted by zendog3

I don't think Sweden is the best model to look to for fighting pandemic. Look at S. Korea, Japan, New Zealand, Australia, even China.

As a previous poster said, "time will tell". Several countries that had low initial numbers are now experiencing a second wave. Will Sweden avoid this by having "got it out of the way" first time round? Who knows - check back in a year.

There is also the trade-off between deaths and disruption of life. In China they dragged people from their homes to quarantine them. Sure, that may have cut the infection rate but would you really want that happening here? In Sweden they let people lead fairly normal lives, with certain precautions. If people didn't want to go to a restaurant then they didn't. Their choice. Higher risk of infection, but a better quality of life.

[Gulfcoast]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

Debating with another person who has no credentials to make sense of this on a public forum without valid actual names is really what we seem to be doing. sigh.

This poster, Graciegirl, ago 80, previous pre-school teacher and card carrying mother and grandmother asks OP this question in a different way.

What percentage of people who are hospitalized for Covid-19 die.

By age.

Thank you.

In terms of this virus:

I can tell you that I'm in my mid 50's, reasonably healthy and rarely get sick. I don't worry so much about me or my husband.

I have a healthy older teen and 20 something. I do not worry about them.

I have family members in their 80's+ and those are the folks that I worry about. I do not think that your concerns are misplaced and I do think that you are wise to take precautions.

[Bonnevie]

all this focus on whether you die or not misses other possible problems. someone sent me this and what it says is true:

Chicken pox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect. We know this because it's been around for years, and has been studied medically for years.

Herpes is also a virus. And once someone has it, it stays in your body and lives there forever, and anytime they get a little run down or stressed-out they're going to have an outbreak. Maybe every time you have a big event coming up (school pictures, job interview, big date) you're going to get a cold sore. For the rest of your life. You don't just get over it in a few weeks. We know this because it's been around for years, and been studied medically for years.

HIV is a virus. It attacks the immune system, and makes the carrier far more vulnerable to other illnesses. It has a list of symptoms and negative health impacts that goes on and on. It was decades before viable treatments were developed that allowed people to live with a reasonable quality of life. Once you have it, it lives in your body forever and there is no cure. Over time, that takes a toll on the body, putting people living with HIV at greater risk for health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes, bone disease, liver disease, cognitive disorders, and some types of cancer. We know this because it has been around for years, and had been studied medically for years.

Now with COVID-19, we have a novel virus that spreads rapidly and easily. The full spectrum of symptoms and health effects is only just beginning to be cataloged, much less understood.This disease has not been around for years. It has basically been 6 months. No one knows yet the long-term health effects, or how it may present itself years down the road for people who have been exposed. We literally *do not know* what we do not know.

[Gulfcoast]

Coronaviruses are not new things, though. I'm not seeing why there would be any reason to suspect that COVID-19 would remain dormant and ready to reappear anymore than any other Coronavirus related cold. COVID-19 is just a particularly nasty version of something that is already pretty well understood.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Current listing of the highest death rates per million in the world. Rates per million are the best way to compare countries for obvious reasons.

1 Belgium 853 per million
2. United Kingdom 659
3. Spain 606
4. Italy 577
5. Sweden 547
6. France 444
7. USA 415
8. Ireland 357
9. Netherlands 354
10. Chile 303

So USA is bad but not the worst. Sweden is the only country on the list that did not lockdown.

What if we inserted US states into the list? US States, in terms of covid 19 policies, are kind of like autonomous countries, there was no overall policy for lockdowns and mitigation handed down by federal government. States were free to choose what they did in terms of their response.

Countries and US states with highest death rates per million

1. New Jersey 1757 deaths per million
2. New York 1665
3. Connecticut 1220
4. Massachusetts 1206
5. Rhode Island 921
6. Belgium 853
7. DC 805
8. Louisiana 733
9. United Kingdom 659
10. Michigan 632

So 5 US States have the very worst death rates per million in the world. US States have 7 of the highest death rates in the world. I included District of Columbia because they keep their own stats and made their own policies about lockdown etc. Those 7 states combine for a total of 71,351 covid 19 deaths, which is 52% of all covid 19 deaths in USA. 52% of deaths and only 16% of total population.

For comparison, Florida death rate per million is 190, we are in 24th place among states, so middle of the pack. We may move up in the ranks with this recent surge in new cases. Make sure you stay safe and do not become a statistic.

Thanks for doing that, compiling that data. I just have a general, big picture, statement or opinion--The past may NOT be prologue in this case. The order of CV deaths for countries and states WILL change. For example, Kansas had very little CV in the recent PAST, but today it is on the list of RAPIDLY rising cases. A certain Dr. Gupta was asked how CV going to go in Fl. Hid answer was, "Floridians were going to DIE!". "Six hospitals in Miami Dade are full, also 40 ICUs across the state." "Disney World opened up, it is NOT hard to predict where Fl. is going BECAUSE their STATE LEADERSHIP is remiss in its duty." The Villages has fared well so far to date. We must hope that past is prologue!

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Swoop

First, no state ran short of ventilators. That’s simply not true. Interesting that you think it’s the federal government’s fault, not the fault of the governor’s of those states. Those governors made the decision to force nursing homes to accept Covid positive patients, not the federal government...

Governors do NOT control the DPA. There were lots of body bags in refrigerator trucks in NYC. I distinctly remember a clip of an NYC Doctor saying that they had to "jury rig" the hoses to make 1 ventilator do 2 patients.
And they had to pull some patients OFF of ventilators to give to other, better-likely-to-live CV patients. It happened!

[EastCoastDawg]

Originally Posted by Bonnevie

Chicken pox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect...

True enough, but that article fails to mention any of the many viruses that do NOT have long term effects, so does not give a balanced view.

There are some people who have had Covid-19 and are experiencing effects long after the accepted recovery period, but there are many more who have had the virus with seemingly no effects at all.

Until enough time has elapsed for Covid-19 infection data to be studied properly we will not know in which camp it belongs.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

No worries. Brazil and Mexico are also on their way up. A lot of people think Sweden was a total disaster because they only compare it to Norway and Finland. They are quite comparable to several US states in size and population and did a lot better than many of them as well as several European countries.

Sweden's deaths keep plumetting and they have no surge of new cases. They may have reached a herd immunity threshold and might have the last laugh. 75% of their death total is from nursing homes, everyone blew that one but without that total, their strategy seems to have worked.

Sweden does NOT compare to ANY US states because none has National Health Care like Sweden has. This and OTHER societal differences allow Sweden to have increased prevention and just overall health compared to the US. Google international list of things like infant mortality. The US has the greatest medical experts on the planet, but that does NOT trickle down to the masses. Note that the US is far down on the list, also on (surprise to some) upward mobility.