[papillon]

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

[Travelhunter]

At the end is an interesting link that provides a detailed comparison between COVID and the Asian flu
A different viewpoint than the author of this thread with rationale

My Reason colleague Brian Doherty cites a brand new study that suggests that early adoption of stringent public health measures, e.g., closing down schools, theaters, churches, and so forth, in response to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic actually experienced a more robust economic bounce back than cities that reacted more slowly.

In the meantime, assuming that the epidemiological models are even approximately right, the chief reason why the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. may be held down to 1957 pandemic flu levels is because modern public health officials have recommended social distancing measures instead of just letting the current epidemic run its course.
Article below
How Will Coronavirus Pandemic Deaths Compare to the 1957 Flu Pandemic? – Reason.com

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY

Population was lot lower then and China hasn’t taken over the world yet by stealing. Until China get rid of its wet markets and enter’s the 20 century with food handling more virus’s to come. Each time outbreak happens it seems to get more deadly.

[Lindsyburnsy]

Many people who hv had COVID19 but didn’t die, have had a plethora of ongoing lung, heart, memory, kinetic, etc issues after months of recovery from the virus. Personally, I am doing all I can to protect you and myself from getting it. “

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

[Jacob85]

I can never understand the fascination people have in trying to minimize this virus. You cannot really compare it to any other illness because it is a new virus and we don’t know everything about it. I was alive in 1957 and I think if 145,000 people had died in 4 1/2 months we would have heard something. This virus has cause damage in every organ in some people and unique issues in young children such as inflammation in their bodies. The highly contagious aspect of this virus from people with no symptoms is another unique factor.

[toeser]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

As the info I posted shows, the USA only had 172 million people in 1957, so deaths per million is a better way to compare,

Our population has grown 92% since then. Can you imagine how horrible life would be in this country if our population is 633 million in 2083, or 1,216,500,000 in 2146? The world's biggest problem is population growth, not a pandemic. Both the U.S. population and the world's population has continued to grow right through this pandemic.

[banjobob]

Originally Posted by DeeCee Dubya

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

. I agree this virus is a fear factor gone berserk.

[toeser]

Originally Posted by papillon

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

Reasonable estimates are that likely 10 times as many people have been infected as the number officially confirmed.

I personally know of two people who have very likely had it, were never hospitalized, and not counted in the totals.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by banjobob

. I agree this virus is a fear factor gone berserk.

Oh. I respectfully and intensely disagree with this post.

[BarryD]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

One big difference - thanks to the foresight of Maurice Hilleman, when the 1957 flu arrived, a vaccine was ready - and even with a vaccine, 60,000 - 100,000 Americans died

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by 72lions

Please quit with herd immunity BS. Please. 4 million have been identified as positive. Let’s say the number represents 1/2 actually infected. That represents 2% of the population. Herd immunity requires something closer to 50-60% and that assumes antibodies provide long-term immunity which has not been shown. So again, just STOP.

Sorry but no, I won't stop

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.



Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by papillon

As of today's CDC website:
Infected in US: 4,099,310
Deaths in US: 145,013
Mortality rate: 3.54%

This does not take into account the huge number of asymptomatics who had the virus, did not get sick or die.

The official CDC estimate for Infection Fatality Rate is 0.65%

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Sorry but no, I won't stop

It's obvious that many do not read the numerous links I have posted.

To review:

CDC Director recently stated that there are 10 times more asymptomatics than confirmed positives tested. Other scientists think it could be 20 times.

New studies by scientists have discovered that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity to covid 19 from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, say scientists

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...294v1.full.pdf

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...762v1.full.pdf

Yes antibodies fade with time, but your T and B cells retain memory of the virus and can produce new antibodies if they are needed. T cell memory of Sars 1 tested as effective 17 years after exposure. Antibodies don't need to last forever to stop a pandemic anyway, just a few months will do nicely.

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces robust, neutralizing antibody responses that are stable for at least three months | medRxiv

If you don't understand all the science, just look at graphs of deaths or cases in places like Sweden or New York. Only a small percentage of residents in each place tested positive but their graphs for deaths and cases look the same, rising up to a peak and then descending towards zero. Neither place has had a big surge in new cases. Why? It can't be lockdowns and masks because Sweden did neither. The only explanation is that a herd immunity threshold was reached in both places. There are other countries and states where you see the same thing.

Attachment 85429

Florida has had a big surge in cases because the threshold has not been met here yet. But it looks like the surge in new cases is starting a downward trend, just as I predicted at the beginning of July in another thread. If this downward trend in cases continues then the death totals will start to go down as well in a few weeks.

Attachment 85430

I always wonder whether the goal is to educate or show power. To further understanding or to be right.

I wonder this about posters and public figures on this issue.

I wish that the internet MSN News Feed did not FEED us opinion pieces, even from valid sources as headlines. I wish there was a clear distance between science and politics.

I wish all could see that we got another bug from that area which is gonna badly harm us. It requires a much more complicated vaccine. I don't know that anything other than our own individual choices can protect us. I don't know what will happen but it is NO hoax and no plot. It is a terrible killer with awful spikes all over it and it kills a lot of older people and harms a lot of younger people and there is no cure for it.

[Chabill]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

What's your point... or is this just FYI?

[merrymini]

Originally Posted by Topspinmo

Population was lot lower then and China hasn’t taken over the world yet by stealing. Until China get rid of its wet markets and enter’s the 20 century with food handling more virus’s to come. Each time outbreak happens it seems to get more deadly.

It seems to be the case that the wet market blame was a ruse by china to deceive. They were not practicing good lab protocols which may be worse than letting it out on purpose. It goes to show how you can bring a country or countries to its knees with the help of the media and non critical thinking of the people who watch the media. Numbers are fascinating. People do not understand how easily manipulated they are. Do not believe all you hear or see.