[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

Right you are. Maybe this has already been discussed elsewhere, but if so, I missed it. "COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with a SARS-CoV-2 R.1 Lineage Variant in a Skilled Nursing Facility After Vaccination Program — Kentucky, March 2021" COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with a SARS-CoV-2 R.1 Lineage Variant in a Skilled Nursing Facility After Vaccination Program — Kentucky, March 2021 | MMWR
Parts of the CDC's summary include: "Vaccine was 86.5% protective against symptomatic illness among residents and 87.1% protective among HCP." and "Although COVID-19 mRNA vaccines demonstrated high efficacy in clinical trials (1), they were not 100% efficacious. Thus, some infections postvaccination are expected.".
So, even though the reported number of cases is statistically minuscule (so far) and even though this outbreak may prove to be an anomaly, using words like 'can't' and 'won't' when talking about the chances of a vaccinated person contracting Covid are just plain wrong.

You are correct. According to the CDC, there were 5,318 cases among 85,000,000 vaccinated, or 0.008%. So can't and won't are not correct. Nearly impossible and lotto odds improbable are probably better. And a single nursing home in Kentucky statistically means absolutely NOTHING.

[roscoguy]

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

You are correct. According to the CDC, there were 5,318 cases among 85,000,000 vaccinated, or 0.008%. So can't and won't are not correct. Nearly impossible and lotto odds improbable are probably better. And a single nursing home in Kentucky statistically means absolutely NOTHING.

Not disagreeing with any of that. I guess my first question would be: IS this an isolated incident? Unless or until other facilities are conducting similar screening & testing, we may not know the full story for some time.

While the CDC report is still mostly reassuring, there are some troubling implications as well. If I'm reading the numbers right, 18 of the 75 vaccinated residents were infected, with 6 of them being symptomatic.

[golfing eagles]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

Not disagreeing with any of that. I guess my first question would be: IS this an isolated incident? Unless or until other facilities are conducting similar screening & testing, we may not know the full story for some time.

While the CDC report is still mostly reassuring, there are some troubling implications as well. If I'm reading the numbers right, 18 of the 75 vaccinated residents were infected, with 6 of them being symptomatic.

Also agree (scary, isn't it?). We don't know if it is a 1 off, or a variant, or the beginning of a new set of numbers from the CDC. I am pretty sure that 5318/85 million won't hold---there will be more breakthrough cases as time goes on. After all, the "real world" number from the CDC is 0.008%, but the research number during the trials was 5%----that's about a 3 order of magnitude difference so something "seems" fishy.

[tuccillo]

They are not the same number. The efficacy rate during the Pfizer trial was essentially the ratio of the positives of the test group and the placebo group. This ratio was 20 to 1, or 5%, and reflects the reduction in the probability of catching COVID if exposed. The number of breakthrough cases during the trial for the test group was 8 out of 21,000 or 0.04%, not 5%. The current CDC reported breakthrough rate (for the fully vaccinated) is probably undercounted at 0.008%.

Originally Posted by golfing eagles

Also agree (scary, isn't it?). We don't know if it is a 1 off, or a variant, or the beginning of a new set of numbers from the CDC. I am pretty sure that 5318/85 million won't hold---there will be more breakthrough cases as time goes on. After all, the "real world" number from the CDC is 0.008%, but the research number during the trials was 5%----that's about a 3 order of magnitude difference so something "seems" fishy.

[coffeebean]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

Not disagreeing with any of that. I guess my first question would be: IS this an isolated incident? Unless or until other facilities are conducting similar screening & testing, we may not know the full story for some time.

While the CDC report is still mostly reassuring, there are some troubling implications as well. If I'm reading the numbers right, 18 of the 75 vaccinated residents were infected, with 6 of them being symptomatic.

How severe were those symptoms? Were any of the symptomatic patients hospitalized? Any deaths? Those are the important questions to be answered.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Bay Kid

Your opinion and that I will respect that. I'm not a cult worshipper. He is a overpaid flipper, period.

OK. I can respect, "not a cult-worshipper"!