[GoodLife]

Some children are going to be minimally ill but are going to carry the virus home to grandma and she is going to die. Despite more than one person's continuing attempts to minimize the seriousness of this disease, children do catch it and do spread it. They catch it less often, become less ill, and spread it less frequently. But they do all of those things.

So posting a CDC table listing deaths from covid 19 and other causes by age group is minimizing the seriousness of the disease? The facts are quite clear, people 24 and under represent 31% of the USA population and 171 of them have died from Covid 19. More people in that age group die of the flu every year. According to CDC 185 children under 18 have died from the flu this year. Compared to covid 19, more children catch the flu, are hospitalized by the flu, die from the flu, and most important, children are super spreaders of the flu. Opposite is true for Covid 19 in that age group.

So maybe schools should just stay closed forever because the flu comes every year. Kids die from lots of things, statistically their deaths from covid 19 is almost zero.

Data from other countries where there is not an ongoing surge in cases may not translate to here. We are now over a half year into this pandemic. There is still no effective cure nor preventative. There is only risk reduction with social distancing [impossible in a school], mask wearing [extremely unrealistic with children], and handwashing may or may not play a role but it doesn't happen with kids.


Why wouldn't it translate? Does the virus act differently with kids in Europe than here? Last time I checked we have same virus as them. There's no cure or preventive in Europe either. Social distancing impossible in a school? Sweden just spread the desks out, not using masks, kids are trained to wash hands frequently. No problems!

Coronavirus study finds schools are safe for teachers and students

A study of the NSW school students and staff who have tested positive for COVID-19 found an "extraordinarily" low rate of transmission in schools.

"Our investigation found no evidence of children infecting teachers," the chief investigator Professor Kristine Macartney told The Sun-Herald.

"We have seen an extraordinarily low rate of transmissions in schools," Prof Macartney said.

Coronavirus study finds schools are safe for teachers and students | SBS News

[blueash]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Some children are going to be minimally ill but are going to carry the virus home to grandma and she is going to die. Despite more than one person's continuing attempts to minimize the seriousness of this disease, children do catch it and do spread it. They catch it less often, become less ill, and spread it less frequently. But they do all of those things.

So posting a CDC table listing deaths from covid 19 and other causes by age group is minimizing the seriousness of the disease? The facts are quite clear, people 24 and under represent 31% of the USA population and 171 of them have died from Covid 19. More people in that age group die of the flu every year. According to CDC 185 children under 18 have died from the flu this year. Compared to covid 19, more children catch the flu, are hospitalized by the flu, die from the flu, and most important, children are super spreaders of the flu. Opposite is true for Covid 19 in that age group.

So maybe schools should just stay closed forever because the flu comes every year. Kids die from lots of things, statistically their deaths from covid 19 is almost zero.

Data from other countries where there is not an ongoing surge in cases may not translate to here. We are now over a half year into this pandemic. There is still no effective cure nor preventative. There is only risk reduction with social distancing [impossible in a school], mask wearing [extremely unrealistic with children], and handwashing may or may not play a role but it doesn't happen with kids.


Why wouldn't it translate? Does the virus act differently with kids in Europe than here? Last time I checked we have same virus as them. There's no cure or preventive in Europe either. Social distancing impossible in a school? Sweden just spread the desks out, not using masks, kids are trained to wash hands frequently. No problems!

Coronavirus study finds schools are safe for teachers and students

A study of the NSW school students and staff who have tested positive for COVID-19 found an "extraordinarily" low rate of transmission in schools.

"Our investigation found no evidence of children infecting teachers," the chief investigator Professor Kristine Macartney told The Sun-Herald.

"We have seen an extraordinarily low rate of transmissions in schools," Prof Macartney said.

Coronavirus study finds schools are safe for teachers and students | SBS News

You posted a link from april on the school experience in Australia, a country that has had a tiny fraction of the disease compared to here. Somehow you missed all the newer stories about Australian schools being closed down due to Covid cases.

Virus sets off new school closures in Australia
After 181 cases in a city of 5 million, what did they do in Australia just this week?

Schools will largely return to distance learning and restaurants will, once again, only be permitted to serve takeaway food

Apparently the government of Australia does not believe in keeping the schools open with an incidence of COVID of 181/5,000,000 The population of Florida is about 20 million so that would mean shutting down with 725 positive tests in the state. Do you really want to tell me about how we should be doing what Australia is doing? The study you linked looked at 9 children. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that tiny bit of data.

The point you seem unable to grasp is that the pandemic here is not matched by the experience in any other country except Brazil which is run by a maniac IMO. You want to talk percentages? We are under 5% of the world population but have 25% of the cases and 25% of the world deaths. We are not Europe, they have it under control. We are not Australia, they have it under control. We are not China or South Korea they have it under control. We are Brazil. Except Brazil has its schools closed in the major cities.

A responsible planning consideration for opening schools has been issued by the AAP.

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by blueash

You posted a link from april on the school experience in Australia, a country that has had a tiny fraction of the disease compared to here. Somehow you missed all the newer stories about Australian schools being closed down due to Covid cases.

Virus sets off new school closures in Australia
After 181 cases in a city of 5 million, what did they do in Australia just this week?




Apparently the government of Australia does not believe in keeping the schools open with an incidence of COVID of 181/5,000,000 The population of Florida is about 20 million so that would mean shutting down with 725 positive tests in the state. Do you really want to tell me about how we should be doing what Australia is doing? The study you linked looked at 9 children. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that tiny bit of data.

The point you seem unable to grasp is that the pandemic here is not matched by the experience in any other country except Brazil which is run by a maniac IMO. You want to talk percentages? We are under 5% of the world population but have 25% of the cases and 25% of the world deaths. We are not Europe, they have it under control. We are not Australia, they have it under control. We are not China or South Korea they have it under control. We are Brazil. Except Brazil has its schools closed in the major cities.

A responsible planning consideration for opening schools has been issued by the AAP.

Blueash is a very well qualified pediatrician. He also has a reputation in Cincinnati of truly caring about children and families. He is extremely smart and very well educated. I am prejudiced when he writes about health and science. I am very prone to believe every word he says on these subjects.

[Taltarzac725]

Opening schools should be up to the local communities after extensive discussion between local public health officials, PTA representatives, teachers, bus drivers, librarians, school employees, students, etc.

The Villages' situation will be quite different say from that in NYC, on Cape Cod, a suburb in the Twin Cities, Las Vegas, etc.

[manaboutown]

For some time I have followed and compared the deaths in Sweden, now 5,500 deaths among @10.4M and Switzerland, now 1,966 deaths among @8.3M. As we all know Switzerland is an international financial center and has people come to ski in the winter. People fly there from around the world. Sweden is much less visited; many people live on islands and in small rural enclaves. It seems to me Sweden has paid a price for remaining open although from what I have read many of the deaths have occurred among the elderly and those whose health is compromised with underlying conditions.

In the end the decisions regarding opening schools as well of the rest of the economy need to be made. It will be a tough call based on incomplete information as so much is unknown about the virus.

[GoodLife]

It discusses the situation in Sweden and Denmark. Neither country had the community spread we have here.

I haven't studied Denmark much, but I do know quite a bit about Sweden.

Recall that Sweden never locked down, used masks, or closed their schools for 16 and under ages.

Sweden currently has 7300 confirmed cases per million, USA is 9772 per million

However, USA has tested double the amount per capita that Sweden has. So they could easily have as many cases per capita as USA, lots of asymptomatics are hidden.

The facts are, Sweden never closed their kindergartens, primary or secondary schools
and have had exactly 9 deaths from covid in age groups under 30 years old. Zero from under 19

Can you really use their experience with safety of reopening schools as a guideline to the situation in the US where we are far and away the worst petri dish in the world

Why yes, we can. Remember, Sweden's schools (16 and under) stayed open and never closed. Only 9 deaths under 30 reported in Sweden. Zero under 19



Looky there! Sweden closely matched the "petri dish" of USA in terms of cases per million for the last 3 months, and only recently began to come down. Quoting total cases for one day for a country of 330,000,000 vs one with 10,000,000 is not very scientific.

So in review, Sweden's schools stayed open during several months when their cases per million was closely matching that of USA, but they only had 9 deaths under 30. Zero under 19

Those are the facts.

[jebartle]

Every parent will have to draw their own conclusions, for me, home school. Many, this is not an option, work, eat, pay bills.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by blueash

You posted a link from april on the school experience in Australia, a country that has had a tiny fraction of the disease compared to here. Somehow you missed all the newer stories about Australian schools being closed down due to Covid cases.

Virus sets off new school closures in Australia
After 181 cases in a city of 5 million, what did they do in Australia just this week?

Apparently the government of Australia does not believe in keeping the schools open with an incidence of COVID of 181/5,000,000 The population of Florida is about 20 million so that would mean shutting down with 725 positive tests in the state. Do you really want to tell me about how we should be doing what Australia is doing? The study you linked looked at 9 children. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that tiny bit of data.

The point you seem unable to grasp is that the pandemic here is not matched by the experience in any other country except Brazil which is run by a maniac IMO. You want to talk percentages? We are under 5% of the world population but have 25% of the cases and 25% of the world deaths. We are not Europe, they have it under control. We are not Australia, they have it under control. We are not China or South Korea they have it under control. We are Brazil. Except Brazil has its schools closed in the major cities.

A responsible planning consideration for opening schools has been issued by the AAP.

Your links describe a hotspot in Melbourne only, where they have reclosed schools. Not the whole country. Nothing about this new hotspot being related to schools, except "a few students tested positive"

Doesn't matter, the study I posted showed very low transmission of covid in schools to teachers and students. Hotspot panic in Melbourne story does not disprove the study.

See post #21 for a clear view of how schools in Sweden stayed open during entire pandemic when their cases per million kept pace with USA. 9 deaths under 30.

I really don't care what Australian government may or may not do. Actual data from Sweden refutes the entire panic over schools reopening, because they never closed and nothing bad happened.

Forget scientific studies and government guidelines, we have actual data from Sweden. Schools stayed open during entire pandemic and we have actual results. NO PROBLEMS

[MandoMan]

I’m a just-retired college professor, so here is my prediction about college campuses. My state university, like many, plans to open this fall, but in crowded classrooms, classes will be divided in half, and one half will be in class every other class day. Thus, for a Tuesday/Thursday class, half the class will come to class on Tuesday and half on Thursday. The teachers will try to teach the same material in both class periods. For Monday/Wednesday/Friday, half the class will come on Monday and Friday one week and Wednesday the next week. (In, say, a Composition class with 20 students in a room that seats 40, students will come every class day, but will sit far from each other. The same goes for small upper division classes.) All students must wear masks walking too and from classes and in the classroom, and so will the teachers.

So far, so good. But every class day, I picked up about 100 new assignments, graded them, and wrote the grades in the gradebook, and I also passed back a hundred, touching each one and walking up and down the rows of desks. Teachers can wear masks, but air conditioning or heating is on, windows are closed, and there isn’t much fresh air. They can if the choose wear gloves all day, including while grading papers. I would. Will most teachers? I don’t know.

The classrooms seem pretty safe, but that’s not the entire story. Some 90% of my students held down part time or full time jobs while going to college. Will all of those jobs be safe? A third lived at home, and more went home on weekends. Many of those homes were small and had a lot of people living there. The rest of my students lived in dorms—two or three to a room, often a badly-ventilated room, with communal showers and toilets down the hall. Or they lived in apartments or houses they rented in town, usually four to six people per apartment with shared bedrooms. If one of those students in an apartment gets sick, there’s an excellent chance that most will. Also, a lot of my students loved partying above all things. What does it matter if the bars are closed if half my students attend large parties several times every week? We are talking parties with 100-200 students there, many kegs of beer, very loud with people shouting at each other from inches away to be heard, often in unventilated basements. Imagine bathrooms with ten people waiting in line to use the shared soap and wet towels.

In short, the colleges are planning relatively safe classrooms. However, when five or ten or twenty or a hundred students get sick (almost as crammed in as Bushnell Prison or a local nursing home), parents will push schools to return to online learning, and many will.

What will happen then? Colleges will have to refund most of the room and board fees. Landlords my be asked to do the same. Janitors and dorm personnel and cafeteria personnel will be laid off. Students on teams may lose their scholarships (and these are often minority students.) Many students will drop out because they find online classes harder. Possibly several hundred colleges will close for good because they can’t afford to stay open. Then several thousand teachers and administrators will unexpectedly enter the job market. But they will find that no school is hiring.

This sounds dire, but I think this is a fair, sober prediction. Expect it to come true.

In late April, the last week of class, one of my students emailed me to request a few extra days to complete her final assignment because her father had been taken to the hospital with Covid-19. I said yes, of course. She was a hard-working Mexican-American girl, an A student. She was working full-time as a custodian in the hospital, and her father had been doing that, too, in the same hospital. A few days later she wrote to say her father was improving and out of the ICU. A few days later I personally sent her her final grade and asked how her father was doing. She wrote back that he had died the day before, unexpectedly. She still had to work and was glad she had a job. Her father was dead! He was barely forty, providing essential services! He had a family he loved, and they loved him.

In early April I got an email from a colleague in another department. I’d never heard of her. Her daughter was in one of my classes. She had come down with the virus and was in the hospital. Imagine being a teacher, and your daughter makes it to college, then gets sick that way. The daughter improved, though, and came home. But she couldn’t focus her eyes enough to read, and she couldn’t think much. She was weak and had a headache all the time. She couldn’t breathe well. Her mother read her the final book of the semester out loud and helped her with the daily homework. Did the mother cheat? Who cares? No way would I even ask. (The mother said she herself loved the novel she read aloud.)

I’m very well aware of the economic costs we are facing. My retirement funds fell a long ways. I’m expecting a crash in the next few months. We need to reopen things. Had we known what we know now, we could have left most stores open and just required masks (not bars or restaurants or sporting events or theaters, though—too dangerous). I’m sympathetic to the Swedish approach, counting on people to take care of themselves and keep the economy going and accepting that thousands will die. I’m retired, so I won’t be teaching, and I don’t have an agenda or a political stance on this. I’m simply saying that in colleges, many students will not practice “safe partying” or “social distancing at home,” and there will be outbreaks on many campuses. Whether or not closing the colleges is the best solution, they WILL be closed because administrations will listen to the risk managers, and the risk managers will say you have to close or face lawsuits. Prudence and caution and job protection are built into the minds of college administrators. The word “lawsuit” strikes fear in their hearts.

There are 400 teachers in my university. Most spent over 23 years on their education. How many of them are you will to see die of the virus this year? What is an acceptable casualty rate for this year? 1%? 2%? 5%? That’s 20 teachers.

This is more difficult than some people believe. Just how precious is human life? How far should we go to Protect the economic well-being of our country? Tough questions!

Originally Posted by graciegirl

What is your personal opinion on schools opening? Is it safe for children? Teachers? Staff? Will it further spread Covid-19? How safe/dangerous is it?

[Two Bills]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Your links describe a hotspot in Melbourne only, where they have reclosed schools. Not the whole country. Nothing about this new hotspot being related to schools, except "a few students tested positive"

Doesn't matter, the study I posted showed very low transmission of covid in schools to teachers and students. Hotspot panic in Melbourne story does not disprove the study.

See post #21 for a clear view of how schools in Sweden stayed open during entire pandemic when their cases per million kept pace with USA. 9 deaths under 30.

I really don't care what Australian government may or may not do. Actual data from Sweden refutes the entire panic over schools reopening, because they never closed and nothing bad happened.

Forget scientific studies and government guidelines, we have actual data from Sweden. Schools stayed open during entire pandemic and we have actual results. NO PROBLEMS

Whatever the numbers for Swedish schools, the rest of their policy was an unmitigated disaster compared to all other Nordic countries, and the much vaunted Herd Immunity is still a pipe dream!

[GoodLife]

You posted a link from april on the school experience in Australia, a country that has had a tiny fraction of the disease compared to here.

Okey dokey, how about we compare schools in Sweden vs Finland. Sweden never closed their schools, never locked down, didn't use masks.

Finland closed their schools for 2 months, locked down, advised use of masks.

Sweden was hit hard by covid 19, with 7300 confirmed cases per million, not quite as high as USA or Brazil but definitely among the highest worldwide.

Finland was not hit too hard, with 1300 cases per million.

So if open schools were very risky, you would expect lots more school age cases in hard hit Sweden where schools remained open, than in Finland where cases were six times less and schools actually closed for 2 months.

You'd be wrong.

Here is a report produced jointly by the Public Health agencies of Sweden and Finland.

There were ZERO deaths from covid 19 in both countries for students aged 1 to 19

Covid 19 case incidents per 100,000 students was 52 in Finland and 49 in Sweden.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/...d-children.pdf

So that's as real world as you can get, actual data, no BS theories or modeling whatsoever.

If you are worried about teachers, scroll down to table 4. Out of 293,038 day care, primary, and secondary teachers in Sweden, 381 have tested positive. Since their average age is between 45-50 very few of them died, and it would be wrong to assume they all caught it while teaching. Anyway, according to Sweden case stats, teachers are among the lowest risk profession.

[Gulfcoast]

Originally Posted by Choro&Swing

I’m a just-retired college professor, so here is my prediction about college campuses. My state university, like many, plans to open this fall, but in crowded classrooms, classes will be divided in half, and one half will be in class every other class day. Thus, for a Tuesday/Thursday class, half the class will come to class on Tuesday and half on Thursday. The teachers will try to teach the same material in both class periods. For Monday/Wednesday/Friday, half the class will come on Monday and Friday one week and Wednesday the next week. (In, say, a Composition class with 20 students in a room that seats 40, students will come every class day, but will sit far from each other. The same goes for small upper division classes.) All students must wear masks walking too and from classes and in the classroom, and so will the teachers.

So far, so good. But every class day, I picked up about 100 new assignments, graded them, and wrote the grades in the gradebook, and I also passed back a hundred, touching each one and walking up and down the rows of desks. Teachers can wear masks, but air conditioning or heating is on, windows are closed, and there isn’t much fresh air. They can if the choose wear gloves all day, including while grading papers. I would. Will most teachers? I don’t know.

The classrooms seem pretty safe, but that’s not the entire story. Some 90% of my students held down part time or full time jobs while going to college. Will all of those jobs be safe? A third lived at home, and more went home on weekends. Many of those homes were small and had a lot of people living there. The rest of my students lived in dorms—two or three to a room, often a badly-ventilated room, with communal showers and toilets down the hall. Or they lived in apartments or houses they rented in town, usually four to six people per apartment with shared bedrooms. If one of those students in an apartment gets sick, there’s an excellent chance that most will. Also, a lot of my students loved partying above all things. What does it matter if the bars are closed if half my students attend large parties several times every week? We are talking parties with 100-200 students there, many kegs of beer, very loud with people shouting at each other from inches away to be heard, often in unventilated basements. Imagine bathrooms with ten people waiting in line to use the shared soap and wet towels.

In short, the colleges are planning relatively safe classrooms. However, when five or ten or twenty or a hundred students get sick (almost as crammed in as Bushnell Prison or a local nursing home), parents will push schools to return to online learning, and many will.

What will happen then? Colleges will have to refund most of the room and board fees. Landlords my be asked to do the same. Janitors and dorm personnel and cafeteria personnel will be laid off. Students on teams may lose their scholarships (and these are often minority students.) Many students will drop out because they find online classes harder. Possibly several hundred colleges will close for good because they can’t afford to stay open. Then several thousand teachers and administrators will unexpectedly enter the job market. But they will find that no school is hiring.

This sounds dire, but I think this is a fair, sober prediction. Expect it to come true.

In late April, the last week of class, one of my students emailed me to request a few extra days to complete her final assignment because her father had been taken to the hospital with Covid-19. I said yes, of course. She was a hard-working Mexican-American girl, an A student. She was working full-time as a custodian in the hospital, and her father had been doing that, too, in the same hospital. A few days later she wrote to say her father was improving and out of the ICU. A few days later I personally sent her her final grade and asked how her father was doing. She wrote back that he had died the day before, unexpectedly. She still had to work and was glad she had a job. Her father was dead! He was barely forty, providing essential services! He had a family he loved, and they loved him.

In early April I got an email from a colleague in another department. I’d never heard of her. Her daughter was in one of my classes. She had come down with the virus and was in the hospital. Imagine being a teacher, and your daughter makes it to college, then gets sick that way. The daughter improved, though, and came home. But she couldn’t focus her eyes enough to read, and she couldn’t think much. She was weak and had a headache all the time. She couldn’t breathe well. Her mother read her the final book of the semester out loud and helped her with the daily homework. Did the mother cheat? Who cares? No way would I even ask. (The mother said she herself loved the novel she read aloud.)

I’m very well aware of the economic costs we are facing. My retirement funds fell a long ways. I’m expecting a crash in the next few months. We need to reopen things. Had we known what we know now, we could have left most stores open and just required masks (not bars or restaurants or sporting events or theaters, though—too dangerous). I’m sympathetic to the Swedish approach, counting on people to take care of themselves and keep the economy going and accepting that thousands will die. I’m retired, so I won’t be teaching, and I don’t have an agenda or a political stance on this. I’m simply saying that in colleges, many students will not practice “safe partying” or “social distancing at home,” and there will be outbreaks on many campuses. Whether or not closing the colleges is the best solution, they WILL be closed because administrations will listen to the risk managers, and the risk managers will say you have to close or face lawsuits. Prudence and caution and job protection are built into the minds of college administrators. The word “lawsuit” strikes fear in their hearts.

There are 400 teachers in my university. Most spent over 23 years on their education. How many of them are you will to see die of the virus this year? What is an acceptable casualty rate for this year? 1%? 2%? 5%? That’s 20 teachers.

This is more difficult than some people believe. Just how precious is human life? How far should we go to Protect the economic well-being of our country? Tough questions!

Retail workers, food service workers, police officers, EMTs, healthcare workers, pharmacy techs, prison guards, the staff taking care of the residents in LTCs...

All public facing positions are dealing with the public right now and have been for months.

I'm not sure why teachers and college professors would face any higher risk than the rest of these workers do. Our kids need an education, they want to be around their friends, they are also at low risk for complications from this virus. Most instructors were hired with the expectation that they would do face to face classroom instruction and they accepted their positions well aware that viruses go around every year.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Two Bills

Whatever the numbers for Swedish schools, the rest of their policy was an unmitigated disaster compared to all other Nordic countries, and the much vaunted Herd Immunity is still a pipe dream!

Not sure why this myth of only comparing to Sweden's nordic neighbors is legit. The virus was spread around the world by travelers, some countries got heavily seeded. Some didn't. It also depends on where your visitors were coming from.

Sweden gets more visitors than Finland or Norway.

Can your pipe dream explain these graphs? Sweden's death totals are plummeting just like USA. No lockdown, no masks to explain it.



Sweden's case rate is plummeting now, while USA is going up! What the heck is going on? USA can blame surge of new cases on reopening and protests. What do we blame Sweden's plummeting cases and deaths on?? Give me your best theory.

I wonder if Sweden has reached some sort of immunity threshold, while USA has not.



Also a little known fact, 75% of Sweden's death total came from nursing homes. Everybody got that one wrong. USA is about 40% If Sweden had been smarter about the highest risk group, their overall strategy would be looking great now. If places with huge surges in new cases get more deaths, Sweden might look even better if their cases and deaths continue downward.

[jacksonbrown]

Originally Posted by Choro&Swing

Whether or not closing the colleges is the best solution, they WILL be closed because administrations will listen to the risk managers, and the risk managers will say you have to close or face lawsuits. Prudence and caution and job protection are built into the minds of college administrators. The word “lawsuit” strikes fear in their hearts.

Exactly!

And public schools too could remain closed.

Because, once the lawsuits start, "enterprising" lawyers will sue everyone with even a tertiary relationship to the schools, both public and private.

This includes teachers, professors, support staff, regents, principals, presidents, counselors, janitorial staff, lunch room workers, politicians, school board members, county commissioners ......

[banjobob]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

What is your personal opinion on schools opening? Is it safe for children? Teachers? Staff? Will it further spread Covid-19? How safe/dangerous is it?

My opinion open the schools !! thankfully Florida is moving forward .