[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Home sales are up month over month for January 2024 and trending up, year over year, from 2023. United States Existing Home Sales

If you lowered your price by $50,000 and haven't sold, you were way over-priced to begin with.

Plenty of people are buying, some of the folks selling, seem to be unrealistic about their home's worth in the marketplace. Lower your price another $50,000 and you'll probably sell it tomorrow.

An average is not a good tool to use. In the Villages, some owners paid $500,000-$800,000 for their home. They are now selling at 1.2 - 2 million dollars. This skews the average cost of a home upward. You have to look at the median price of YOUR STYLE of home to determine its value. This is what realtors and appraisers do.

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

An average is not a good tool to use. In the Villages, some owners paid $500,000-$800,000 for their home. They are now selling at 1.2 - 2 million dollars. This skews the average cost of a home upward. You have to look at the median price of YOUR STYLE of home to determine its value. This is what realtors and appraisers do.

As a statistic, the # of home sales is unrelated to pricing.

As a statistic, the rate of home sales is unrelated to pricing.

As a statistic, the upward or downward trend in units sold or listed is unrelated to pricing.

As a practical matter, a "soft market" (in real estate) usually causes price compression. Higher priced homes decrease at a faster rate and lower priced home might actual trend upwards. Supply & demand and the elasticity of the demand curve (I think that's right word).

[margaretmattson]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

As a statistic, the # of home sales is unrelated to pricing.

As a statistic, the rate of home sales is unrelated to pricing.

As a statistic, the upward or downward trend in units sold or listed is unrelated to pricing.

As a practical matter, a "soft market" (in real estate) usually causes price compression. Higher priced homes decrease at a faster rate and lower priced home might actual trend upwards. Supply & demand and the elasticity of the demand curve (I think that's right word).

This is why realtors and appraisers use the median sales price of similar homes to price a new home on the market. But, thanks for rewording what I said.

This is easy to do yourself. Say you own a gardenia model.

1.go to vls and type in gardenia as your search. All gardenia models currently for sale will pop up.

2. Eliminate the homes that have a pool or a view if yours does not have this. Or vice versa.

3. Look at the prices of the homes remaining. Your actual sales price will most likely be the midpoint of these prices. You can attempt to ask higher, sometimes this works. For example: A cleaner home sells better than a messier one.

4. If your asking price is well above what others are asking, you are OVERPRICED.

[mntlblok]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Very well from the Developer's perspective.

Just Google Gary Search and/or Oren Miller.

Thank you. But, I'm guessing that this might not be the search result that I was expected to learn about that from. :-) Sham Conviction Overturned for Villages Politician Railroaded by Ron DeSantis Shall scroll a bit further down said search results.

[mntlblok]

Originally Posted by mntlblok

Thank you. But, I'm guessing that this might not be the search result that I was expected to learn about that from. :-) Sham Conviction Overturned for Villages Politician Railroaded by Ron DeSantis Shall scroll a bit further down said search results.

Am I to get the sense that political donations are what might skew the operations of the CDDs? Have recently read similar things about the sugar business gaining outsized influence. Apparently the Fanjuls have members in both parties. :-) Never been a fan of mercantilism.

Have long wondered why it seems to be that only Illinois politicians ever get sent to prison over corruption issues. Well, maybe the occasional Louisiana one. . .

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by mntlblok

Am I to get the sense that political donations are what might skew the operations of the CDDs? Have recently read similar things about the sugar business gaining outsized influence. Apparently the Fanjuls have members in both parties. :-) Never been a fan of mercantilism.

Have long wondered why it seems to be that only Illinois politicians ever get sent to prison over corruption issues. Well, maybe the occasional Louisiana one. . .

Corporate (or any) "political contributions" aren't "corruption". It's been legalized, to the detriment of most of us.

& I think Louisiana on a % of population basis, is pretty close to Chicago.

[Shipping up to Boston]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Corporate (or any) "political contributions" aren't "corruption". It's been legalized, to the detriment of most of us.

& I think Louisiana on a % of population basis, is pretty close to Chicago.

Party blind....political ‘corruption’ transcends generations. It’s just easier today track it and it’s origins

[Normal]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

This is why realtors and appraisers use the median sales price of similar homes to price a new home on the market. But, thanks for rewording what I said.

This is easy to do yourself. Say you own a gardenia model.

1.go to vls and type in gardenia as your search. All gardenia models currently for sale will pop up.

2. Eliminate the homes that have a pool or a view if yours does not have this. Or vice versa.

3. Look at the prices of the homes remaining. Your actual sales price will most likely be the midpoint of these prices. You can attempt to ask higher, sometimes this works. For example: A cleaner home sells better than a messier one.

4. If your asking price is well above what others are asking, you are OVERPRICED.

Had a neighbor a couple weeks back do the same thing but added a step. The gardenia was averaging 449K, they wanted to sell so they listed it at 419 and it sold right away. The more aggressive the price, the quicker it sells. They didn’t care for the competitive sales atmosphere and grandkids were the driving factor for moving back up north.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Shipping up to Boston

Assuming you agreed with my premise. Not asking government to do it...want the onus on, in this case, the resort operators who are printing cash in places like SS and Aspen/Vail. Thus workforce housing development. Obviously CO just like FL would in similar circumstances, probably initiate tax breaks, TIFF and PILOT agreements to do so.

Sedona, Arizona is another area where the workers are needed, but can't afford to live there. The city put up a few mobile home areas, but most workers had to drive there from about 50 miles away, which they could afford. It was very much an area of the "haves and have NOTS"

[BrianL99]

Originally Posted by margaretmattson

This is why realtors and appraisers use the median sales price of similar homes to price a new home on the market. But, thanks for rewording what I said.

This is easy to do yourself. Say you own a gardenia model.

1.go to vls and type in gardenia as your search. All gardenia models currently for sale will pop up.

2. Eliminate the homes that have a pool or a view if yours does not have this. Or vice versa.

3. Look at the prices of the homes remaining. Your actual sales price will most likely be the midpoint of these prices. You can attempt to ask higher, sometimes this works. For example: A cleaner home sells better than a messier one.

4. If your asking price is well above what others are asking, you are OVERPRICED.

Originally Posted by Normal

Had a neighbor a couple weeks back do the same thing but added a step. The gardenia was averaging 449K, they wanted to sell so they listed it at 419 and it sold right away. The more aggressive the price, the quicker it sells. They didn’t care for the competitive sales atmosphere and grandkids were the driving factor for moving back up north.

Amateur hour.

Bring in a professional to give you a market analysis.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Randall55

Reducing the price is possible with an owner who bought before the post covid surge. They will still see substantial profit. Considering closing costs, those who bought after covid cannot reduce the price unless they are willing to lose money or break even. IMO, if you do not plan on living in your home until you die, this is a terrible time to buy.

I agree that it is a terrible time to buy in Florida......period. My logic may be different than many, but the coast or Miami is a bad place to buy if you plan on living 20 or more years or plan on giving your property to your children......because the oceans are rising due to melting glaciers-worldwide. And the coasts are susceptible to MORE DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANES. Inland Florida like The Villages has the problem of excessive HEAT that is increasing in the SUMMER and hurricanes that MAY reach inland.
........Also, most of Florida has traffic problems throughout the winter.

[Normal]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Amateur hour.

Bring in a professional to give you a market analysis.

Someone is, because the cost of a real estate agent is the same as the price cut. EXCEPT, THE HOUSE SOLD!

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Actually, I'd love to see houses sitting on the market for 6+ months. It's what all the dopes who are confused about why we buy homes, deserve.

In another life, some years back, I was a housing policy advisor to a Governor and have some strong opinions on the subject. That doesn't make me right, it only means that I've been forced to think about the subject from a different perspective than most. I probably have stronger opinions on the subject than most, but that's just the way it goes, you can disagree.

Homes are just that, "homes". The purpose of homes, is shelter for people and families. Nothing more, nothing less.

We [the age demographic in TV] are the first generation in American history, who have expected to "inherit wealth", primarily derived from home appreciation of our parents. Prior to our generation, home appreciation was barely a blip on the radar.

We have now become a nation, whose market for shelter (homes) is driven by the notion that homes are a method to accumulate wealth. That is an "amateur investor" driven fallacy. Home appreciation in most cases, generates Monopoly money. It only becomes real money, when someone is able to actualize that money by making a major change in their life [moving, typically].

If every home in your chosen neighborhood appreciated 50% over-night, what did you gain? NOTHING if you want to continue to live in your neighborhood. You may be able to actualize some of that appreciation, but you have to change your life to do it (move).

Now we have folks coming on here and pontificating about how STR's are raising home values and should continue. Amateur hour.

Yep, STR's can help drive home prices higher, but again ... you need to do something affirmative to actualize that money. There are only (2) ways to actualize your accumulated "Monopoly money". You can move to a new neighborhood that's cheaper (hasn't been infected by the inflation caused by STR's) or .... stay where you are and live in a neighborhood that's turned into a commercial district, Your choice.

(The other option is to die and leave your appreciation to your children, who may or may not be able to actualize it.)

It seems to me, that people in their 60's and 70's should have seen enough of life by now, to realize living in a neighborhood they love, is more important than their home "appreciating" 10% per year. We should all be smart enough by now to realize, a "home" is shelter, not an investment.

Allowing professional investors and speculators to drive home prices in your neighborhood, is self-defeating if you want to live there. Allowing amateurs to do it, is even dumber.

As for the poster who said that STR's are no different than single-family homes and don't stress an infra-structure ... you need to wake up and smell the coffee.

STR's at a minimum, increase occupancy rates of "seasonal homes" that are now used year around. A 12 year old can see that.

STR's are invariably occupied (by definition) folks who are temporary and want to get maximum value for their rental money. Utilize amenities/events/conveniences to the max. Squeeze as much "vacation" into their vacation as they can. Who wouldn't?

Take a 6 month vacation home and rent it out for the 6 months you're not using it, nearly doubles the strain on an infrastructure ... simple, basic, 6th grade math.

STR's contribute nothing towards the purpose of what homes are intended for ... shelter.

STR's provide investment opportunities, for amateurs in most cases. For a price, folks get a temporary base of operations, to take part in the extraneous benefits of a location. Pools, restaurants, golf courses, tennis courts, walking paths, weather, etc. Sounds suspiciously like a hotel to me.

We're all sort of doing that in The Villages, but at least the folks who bought homes as year around or seasonal shelters, have made a significant investment. Allowing those investments to be de-valued by investors who now want to be in the hotel business on the cheap, is lunacy.

At a minimum, the new amendments to Florida legislation will allow the state to collect taxes due and increase the financial burden the amateur hotel owners will have to absorb.

I am very impressed with this post !!!!!!!! It seems to be very "thought provoking". And appears to come from an EXPERT on the SUBJECT. I LEARNED a lot........thanks.....KUDOS !

[Shipping up to Boston]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Sedona, Arizona is another area where the workers are needed, but can't afford to live there. The city put up a few mobile home areas, but most workers had to drive there from about 50 miles away, which they could afford. It was very much an area of the "haves and have NOTS"

Great point. I would think in the exclusive areas we’re talking about here (Steamboat Springs, Vail and Aspen), developers have probably secured or acquired anything within a sniff of those zip codes. Thus controlling the narrative you suggest. The divide deepens for those who would like to live, work and play in those locales but don’t have the incomes to sustain it.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by BrianL99

Almost invariably, STR's work only to the benefit of the owner's of the STR's and the businesses that support their guests.

There is not a neighborhood on earth, that has maintained it's personality (for better or worse) as a result of an influx of STR's.

Anyone who says STR's have not affected their neighbors or the neighborhood, is delusional.

I agree with this post 100%. The Villages should ALWAYS be about Quality of life........as a unifying principle.