[Aces4]

Originally Posted by sail33or

Oil has gone from $42 to $72 a barrel. The cost of OIL is in everything. Nothing is made or transported without Oil in some way.

When you squeeze something or legislate against something it goes up in Value.

The interest rate on CD's is .005 percent. This is artificially keeping the Stock Market going using retirees money.

Just look at the jump in the price of houses in The Villages to see inflation going wild.

Oil/Natural Gas will continue to rise and there is going to be wailing and gnashing of teeth soon. We have not seen Inflation like what is on the way. All deserved and justified. Your house value might make you smile but when you drive to Walmart and it costs $100 to fill your tank and $500 grocery bill you are not going to last long.

What can you do? Buy Exxon Stock.

The Oil Man

THIS! The USA economy is in a tailspin. The propped up, overvalued stock market is the darling of politicians and no one wants to pull the plug on this ponzi scheme lest they lose votes. Borrowed money needs to have a reasonable price tag, free money begets inflation. Interest rates need a floor and I fear there is a storm coming that people won’t be able to comprehend. They will be shocked out of their materialistic mindsets.

[OrangeBlossomBaby]

Originally Posted by sail33or

Oil has gone from $42 to $72 a barrel. The cost of OIL is in everything. Nothing is made or transported without Oil in some way.

When you squeeze something or legislate against something it goes up in Value.

The interest rate on CD's is .005 percent. This is artificially keeping the Stock Market going using retirees money.

Just look at the jump in the price of houses in The Villages to see inflation going wild.

Oil/Natural Gas will continue to rise and there is going to be wailing and gnashing of teeth soon. We have not seen Inflation like what is on the way. All deserved and justified. Your house value might make you smile but when you drive to Walmart and it costs $100 to fill your tank and $500 grocery bill you are not going to last long.

What can you do? Buy Exxon Stock.

The Oil Man

The sky isn't falling. From 2010 til 2014, the price of crude oil exceeded $72/gallon. In fact, in 2013, it was over $90/gallon.

To the surprise of no one with a flea-brain in their head, a full tank on the average automobile didn't ever get to $100, and the average grocery bill for a family of 4 didn't ever see $500.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by Shadywood

Anybody around here old enough to remember the Carter inflation?

Every night, there was some genius PhD guy on your TV, wringing his hands and acting like 20% inflation was just some kind of bad weather: "Nobody knows for sure where it comes from or what to do about it. Oh, there's lots of theories..."

And then Reagan came in and said, "Well, I'll be darned -- somebody left the magic money machine running over at the FED! Lemme just shut that stupid thing off, and things will get back to normal in no time!"

18 months later, it was over.

Funny thing, though. The genius PhD guys never did connect the dots between the Gooberment printing massive piles of money, and the money being worth less. So they invented "Modern Monetary Theory", which basically says the best way to guarantee government freebees for everyone is to crank up the magic money machine! Our last three genius FED chair-guys&gals have been big proponents of "MMT".

And son-of-a-gun, umpteen-trillion-dollars later, we've got inflation again! Whodathunkit!

As Churchill said, "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it".

Reagan was inaugurated in January 1981, so the first fiscal year (FY) he budgeted was 1982 and the final year was 1989. During Reagan's presidency, the federal debt held by the public nearly tripled in nominal terms, from $738 billion to $2.1 trillion.

The above is not a political statement, it is historical fact. "Those who fail to remember history....."

[collie1228]

Not that long ago the explicitly stated goal of the Fed was to control inflation. Yesterday the Fed head said that employment is more important as the economy recovers from the pandemic. That is a sea change event, but the press has ignored it. Expect high inflation into the next couple of years. Welcome back Jimmy Carter leadership, 13 percent inflation (1979) and gas lines.

[sail33or]

Inflation is a matter of degree. Venezuelan type INFLATION or past U.S. type Inflation. I happen to believe that we are headed to the 200% type.

Because, if you have not noticed, there is a war on Fossil Fuels. There is even a Cabinet Level Position (John Kerry) whose sole job is to fight and eliminate Fossil Fuels.

These people are not scientists or engineers and do not know how imbedded Fossil Fuels are into the World's economy. Shut Pipelines down, restrict oil in any way and (I believe) energy will rise to levels never seen before. There will be countries "bidding" for Natural Gas and Oil. Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia will laugh all the way to the Bank as THEY increase their prices to everyone. Once the US gets so far behind, a new administration will have to pay the NEW WORLD Price for Oil as Air Craft Carriers, Airplanes and Diesel Trucks will NEVER run on electric power. Yes, Oil at prices Never seen before and thus everything at prices NEVER seen before. Believe it or Not. Just trying to explain the way things are going.

[Dana1963]

Originally Posted by RICH1

It's obvious INFLATION is here but, how can Mr. Powell or anyone for that matter control it? It seems that the fundamentals have been ignored and consumers are creating their own problems! Will consumer demand for products decrease and prices start to fall? Didn't see this coming?

Quit purchasing stuff you don't need

[Blueblaze]

Originally Posted by Laker14

Reagan was inaugurated in January 1981, so the first fiscal year (FY) he budgeted was 1982 and the final year was 1989. During Reagan's presidency, the federal debt held by the public nearly tripled in nominal terms, from $738 billion to $2.1 trillion.

The above is not a political statement, it is historical fact. "Those who fail to remember history....."

I believe we were talking about inflation, not the national debt, which, for those keeping score, now stands at close to 30 trillion. But you're right, though. Reagan and Tip O'Neil are responsible for about 6% of that, because Reagan refused to inflate the money to pay for the freebies and foolishness that Tip refused to cut from the budget, like Reagan requested.

Between you and me, I'd prefer a world where debts are paid with real money, because it means I get paid for my savings.

For the 75 years before Obama turned the Fed's Magic Money Machine up to "11", to pay for a housing crash that Washington created, you could get 4.25% in any federally-insured passbook savings account at any bank in the country. But now that we Boomers need a safe investment, we're lucky we you don't have to pay the bank to hold our money, and if we hope to keep up with inflation, we're forced to play stock market roulette in the Wall Street casino.

Inflation matters.

It would help if the average American understood that inflation everywhere and always is the result of printing money. It seems like such a simple concept -- if you have too much of something, it's worth less. But the minute you mention this obvious property of the universe in the context of inflation, suddenly everyone retreats to their political bunkers.

It makes it tough to fix anything when we can't even agree on the properties of the universe we live in.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by Shadywood

I believe we were talking about inflation, not the national debt, which, for those keeping score, now stands at close to 30 trillion. But you're right, though. Reagan and Tip O'Neil are responsible for about 6% of that, because Reagan refused to inflate the money to pay for the freebies and foolishness that Tip refused to cut from the budget, like Reagan requested.

Between you and me, I'd prefer a world where debts are paid with real money, because it means I get paid for my savings.

For the 75 years before Obama turned the Fed's Magic Money Machine up to "11", to pay for a housing crash that Washington created, you could get 4.25% in any federally-insured passbook savings account at any bank in the country. But now that we Boomers need a safe investment, we're lucky we you don't have to pay the bank to hold our money, and if we hope to keep up with inflation, we're forced to play stock market roulette in the Wall Street casino.

Inflation matters.

It would help if the average American understood that inflation everywhere and always is the result of printing money. It seems like such a simple concept -- if you have too much of something, it's worth less. But the minute you mention this obvious property of the universe in the context of inflation, suddenly everyone retreats to their political bunkers.

It makes it tough to fix anything when we can't even agree on the properties of the universe we live in.

National debt and inflation are correlated. Why do you think the Fed creates so much money? Why are interest rates so low? Largely to make paying the interest on the national debt a bit easier.
The national debt creates a double whammy: The Fed has to create money out of thin air to pay the interest, thus encouraging it to keep interest lates low, and that in turn encourages inflation.

To cite an administration as the hero of fiscal responsibility, and to ignore the effect of that administrations policies on the increase in the national debt that ensued is to look at only the half of the picture that suits your narrative.

[J1ceasar]

Certainly today is different than the eighties and the inflation we had when mortgage rates were 13 to 15%. But I don't hear any of the villages complain about that housing values going up 15% last year and probably 20% this year. I only hear a complaints the salmon is now $12 a pound, chopped meat is now $7 a pound and you can't get a $1 value hamburger practically anywhere anymore at a fast food place.
Any good financial economist will tell you the simple way to treat inflation is to raise interest rates. The trick normally is to raise them just enough to slow the economy but not cause unemployment. Everyone complains now that there's no one to take over jobs but there's still 6 million people are unemployment roles and believe it or not there's about 450,000 jobs available in Florida alone but no one wants to work anymore. We also have and I'm not making this a political discussion at least 12 million illegal aliens, of which 6 million are of working age and probably working off the books for the most part. So the trick is going to be how to keep the economy pumped so that they're a job growth every month but just enough so that there is not inflation. By the way next year us senior citizens will probably get the biggest raise in the history of getting SS checks due to the unbridled inflation we currently have. Just remember when gas was 15 cents a gallon well in the last year it went up about 50% . So again to answer the question, the Fed who control the rates at the banks will have to raise their rates at least one full percent this year which in turn will give all the banks even more incentive to charge 30% on credit cards. And remember mortgage loans have been in an all time low for the last 2 or 3 years feeding a frenzy for buying homes which in itself would not be a bad thing except for the ridiculous inflation as well as the cost of lumber etc and labor to build the homes signing off for now Mr know it All

[Dan2020]

Originally Posted by Shadywood

Anybody around here old enough to remember the Carter inflation?

Every night, there was some genius PhD guy on your TV, wringing his hands and acting like 20% inflation was just some kind of bad weather: "Nobody knows for sure where it comes from or what to do about it. Oh, there's lots of theories..."

And then Reagan came in and said, "Well, I'll be darned -- somebody left the magic money machine running over at the FED! Lemme just shut that stupid thing off, and things will get back to normal in no time!"

18 months later, it was over.

Funny thing, though. The genius PhD guys never did connect the dots between the Gooberment printing massive piles of money, and the money being worth less. So they invented "Modern Monetary Theory", which basically says the best way to guarantee government freebees for everyone is to crank up the magic money machine! Our last three genius FED chair-guys&gals have been big proponents of "MMT".

And son-of-a-gun, umpteen-trillion-dollars later, we've got inflation again! Whodathunkit!

As Churchill said, "Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it".

I believe it was Paul Volckner acting as the head of an independent Federal Reserve that formulated a policy that brought the rampant inflation of that time under control. Ironically because it was under the Reagan administration that the USA was transformed from a creditor nation to a debtor nation.

[Laker14]

Originally Posted by J1ceasar

Certainly today is different than the eighties and the inflation we had when mortgage rates were 13 to 15%. But I don't hear any of the villages complain about that housing values going up 15% last year and probably 20% this year. I only hear a complaints the salmon is now $12 a pound, chopped meat is now $7 a pound and you can't get a $1 value hamburger practically anywhere anymore at a fast food place.
Any good financial economist will tell you the simple way to treat inflation is to raise interest rates. The trick normally is to raise them just enough to slow the economy but not cause unemployment. Everyone complains now that there's no one to take over jobs but there's still 6 million people are unemployment roles and believe it or not there's about 450,000 jobs available in Florida alone but no one wants to work anymore. We also have and I'm not making this a political discussion at least 12 million illegal aliens, of which 6 million are of working age and probably working off the books for the most part. So the trick is going to be how to keep the economy pumped so that they're a job growth every month but just enough so that there is not inflation. By the way next year us senior citizens will probably get the biggest raise in the history of getting SS checks due to the unbridled inflation we currently have. Just remember when gas was 15 cents a gallon well in the last year it went up about 50% . So again to answer the question, the Fed who control the rates at the banks will have to raise their rates at least one full percent this year which in turn will give all the banks even more incentive to charge 30% on credit cards. And remember mortgage loans have been in an all time low for the last 2 or 3 years feeding a frenzy for buying homes which in itself would not be a bad thing except for the ridiculous inflation as well as the cost of lumber etc and labor to build the homes signing off for now Mr know it All

I agree with pretty much everything you said, and would add one other wrinkle. I guess this started with the meltdown in 2007-2008, but the Fed's manipulation of interest rates has also been used, (excessively IMO) to keep stock values high. With no safe place to put money, the PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is now at a staggering 44.85...The Fed is now boxed in....raise rates to fight inflation, and the market will drop...keep rates low, or lower them some more to keep that stock market looking good, and inflation eats up the savings of those who can't afford the risk of stocks at a PE of 44.85.

the good news? Well, the good news is that the sales of my book "1001 Ways to Make Catfood Delicious" have been off the charts.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

lets see, gold is down to $1660, off from almost $2,000 a year ago. . . the 10 year US bond is about 1.5% give or take. . . not looking like the investment community is as nearly worked up as the TOTV posters with one data point. Fed Powell discussed labor the opening of the economy being faster than anticipated due to the vaccine, and the work from home movement is starting to reverse, with companies requiring workers back in the office, most in a hybrid model, so expect life to return back to pre-pandemic normal in a few months. . . also, Powell mentioned that he is expecting two rate hikes in the next 18 months, and the market cratered for the week. There is nothing to worry about yet. the current year over year inflation is transitory, for now. .

start living in the present. . .

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

lets see, gold is down to $1660, off from almost $2,000 a year ago. . . the 10 year US bond is about 1.5% give or take. . . not looking like the investment community is as nearly worked up as the TOTV posters with one data point. Fed Powell discussed labor the opening of the economy being faster than anticipated due to the vaccine, and the work from home movement is starting to reverse, with companies requiring workers back in the office, most in a hybrid model, so expect life to return back to pre-pandemic normal in a few months. . . also, Powell mentioned that he is expecting two rate hikes in the next 18 months, and the market cratered for the week. There is nothing to worry about yet. the current year over year inflation is transitory, for now. .

start living in the present. . .

Head in the sand viewpoint, IMHO. This is a huge mess and socialism has arrived. There is no way for the government to fund all programs, future programs and treats being handed out for little to no effort without extracting money and programs from those who work/worked and save/saved. There is a big effort at this time to go after inheritances and estate monies. So all of those people who wasted time and money setting up trusts, in the event they had anything left at the end of their lives, too bad. The best thing you can do at this point is to p*ss through your savings and get on the public tit, like so many others. I only hope there isn’t a single loophole for senators and congress representatives to squirrel away their mass fortunes.

[Blueblaze]

Originally Posted by Dan2020

I believe it was Paul Volckner acting as the head of an independent Federal Reserve that formulated a policy that brought the rampant inflation of that time under control. Ironically because it was under the Reagan administration that the USA was transformed from a creditor nation to a debtor nation.

Paul Volcker was a Democrat installed by Jimmy Carter. He was the guy who CREATED the inflation that you say he solved.

I guess it must have been sheer coincidence that the moment Volker's boss became Ronald Reagan, he suddenly found religion and realized that all he needed to do to solve the 20% inflation he'd created under Carter was to quit printing money. Well, either coincidence or he just wanted to keep his job.

And yes, it's true -- if you're not paying your bills with fake money, it's a sure bet you're going into debt if you don't have enough real money. Sorry, but that seems like a poor reason to go back into the counterfeiting business to me. Maybe if Tip O'Neil had cooperated with Reagan's plan to live within our means, we could have had low inflation without tripling the debt.

[Timothyimitchell]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

lets see, gold is down to $1660, off from almost $2,000 a year ago. . . the 10 year US bond is about 1.5% give or take. . . not looking like the investment community is as nearly worked up as the TOTV posters with one data point. Fed Powell discussed labor the opening of the economy being faster than anticipated due to the vaccine, and the work from home movement is starting to reverse, with companies requiring workers back in the office, most in a hybrid model, so expect life to return back to pre-pandemic normal in a few months. . . also, Powell mentioned that he is expecting two rate hikes in the next 18 months, and the market cratered for the week. There is nothing to worry about yet. the current year over year inflation is transitory, for now. .

start living in the present. . .

Keyword....YET! Here's the deal. We all know the markets are being manipulated, propped up. And I am not just talking about the stock market. All markets. Stock market, bond markets, even gold and silver. We also know this can only go on for, well, no one knows.
Do you really believe Powell? Do you really believe this country can keep running on credit cards? Do you believe we will ever really get back to pre-pandemic normals? It would be interesting to know how your money is invested. I hope not in the stock market. Hopefully heavy in Silver and gold. I feel bad for our grandkids.This bubble is gonna pop.