[GoodLife]

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

[B-flat]

My 2 cents I believe in 1957 people were tougher, there was no instant communications, the media reported news not created hysteria. I also believe people weren’t traveling as much or affluent as they are today. It adds up to a number of factors.

China wasn’t a factor either which keeps seeding the US

[Nucky]

///

[graciegirl]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

Francois Balloux is the Director of the UCL Genetics Institute,[1] and a Professor of Computational Systems Biology at University College London. Together with his colleague Dr Lucy Van Dorp, they led a team of researchers in the analysis of the first large-scale analysis of 7666 complete SARS-Cov-2 genomes, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Balloux recently compared the Covid 19 pandemic of 2020 to the 1957 flu. I was just a little tyke at that time and don't remember anything about it. But if you read articles about it, apparently the world did not go into a frenzy of panic. Life went on. Maybe we were tougher then.

Infection Fatality Rate

1957 Flu 0.67%
2020 Covid 0.65% (CDC number)

Stats for both for the whole World, UK and USA with deaths per million. Balloux estimates total deaths for USA will be 220,000, we are at 148,462 today. Deaths per day in USA are currently about 1000 per day, I think this will start going down in a month if this new surge of cases gets us to herd immunity threshold. We'll see.

Deaths per million are very similar for both diseases in UK and USA, but the 57 flu killed a lot more people per capita in the world than covid 19 has so far. Covid 19 would need to kill about 3 million people worldwide to equal the deaths per million rate of 57 flu. (current world total is 641,889) If the low herd immunity threshold theory is correct I doubt this will happen, as there are many places in the world that seem to have reached it. We'll see.

Attachment 85425

I've noticed what looks like a lot of homemade graphs and spreadsheets showing up in some member's posts, that anyone could pretty easily do on their own. It would be helpful in determining the veracity of their source, if a link or citation were included with these graphs and spreadsheets. Thank you.

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY

Thank you for the link, it really helps.

[Two Bills]

I was in the UK. military in 1957, and half our battalion went down with the Asian Flu. No one died, but a lot were very ill. I had just a mild dose of it.
Don't think we were any tougher than those of today, but there definitely were not anywhere near as many obese people around which may have kept numbers down.
With no internet, news of the severity of it was not readily available, which led to less rumour and info overload.
We were not that long out of WW2, and the general attitude, was a bit of flu was nothing compared to what many had been through.
We just got on with it.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by graciegirl

According to this the 1957 Asian Flu killed between 70,000 and 115,000 people in the U.S. This is a very good accounting of how they developed the vaccine. Covid-19 as of yesterday had killed 148,000 Americans.

Early Detection of the 1957 Flu Pandemic Helped Slow Its Spread - HISTORY

As the info I posted shows, the USA only had 172 million people in 1957, so deaths per million is a better way to compare,

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by tvbound

I've noticed what looks like a lot of homemade graphs and spreadsheets showing up in some member's posts, that anyone could pretty easily do on their own. It would be helpful in determining the veracity of their source, if a link or citation were included with these graphs and spreadsheets. Thank you.

The white info graphic was posted by Balloux. I am pretty sure that the guy who sequenced the coronavirus genome knows how to get accurate numbers.

[Villages Kahuna]

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this. Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

1957 flu was a double peak pandemic that lasted about 8 months



The 57 flu killed a lot more young people than covid, which kills mainly the old

[DeeCee Dubya]

I called bull**** on this COVID-19 scare way back in March. Nothing more than a garden-variety flu virus.
Understand that the world economy was not destroyed by COVID-19. It was destroyed by the heavy-handed and alarmist restrictions applied by governments all over the world on their citizens.

[Travelhunter]

Originally Posted by Villages Kahuna

I suffered from that flu in ‘57 as a freshman in college. About half my fraternity house spent almost two weeks in bed. I’ve never been sicker in my life, absolutely an illness I wouldn’t want to repeat. I don’t recall that the pandemic back then lasted as long as this.

Should we all feel better that the mortality rate of the 1957 flu was about the same as COVID-19? I doubt that my wife and I could survive being that sick again at our age now.

Well said

[David Fletcher]

It seems that some people continue to look for excuses to not accept that Covid-19 is a serious health threat.

The “Reds under the Bed” theory isn’t sound logical thought.

Covid-19 May or May not kill you however for certain if contracted it can leave serious after effects.

If you shop hard enough you can find pretty well any theory you want. Isn’t Elvis still alive!!

A rational person would take precautions and not want to spread the problem. It does not seem to me it attacking just right or Left thinkers.

Covid-19 doesn’t know your name your race your colour or your political thinking.

Be kind and stay safe.