[Aloha1]

Thank you, Goodlife, for your well reasoned posts and research. Keep it coming.

Wow Goodlife, you really made a very accurate prediction about when the new cases surge would start ending.

I'm looking forward to October 1st, no more Howard Hughes lifestyle! Yaaay Goodlife!

[EdFNJ]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

This is getting tiresome. I didn't just say cases would peak and then decline. I predicted WHEN they would decline. I did this on July 7 and said it would happen before the end of the month. At that time the media was blaring headlines that Florida was "the next New York" and "the epicenter" NOBODY was predicting this.

I invite you to find anyone in early July predicting that the surge would start to fall before the end of the month. I'll be waiting for any quotes you can supply.

My goodness! You win the prize! Pat yourself on the back. Yes, it is getting tiresome. Come back in October and hopefully you'll still be right. Florida is #2 with a bullet. Tough fight for #1 with CA. We keep trying to be on top.

[EdFNJ]

ooops, wrong thread! NM

[roscoguy]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

This is getting tiresome. I didn't just say cases would peak and then decline. I predicted WHEN they would decline. I did this on July 7 and said it would happen before the end of the month. At that time the media was blaring headlines that Florida was "the next New York" and "the epicenter" NOBODY was predicting this.

I invite you to find anyone in early July predicting that the surge would start to fall before the end of the month. I'll be waiting for any quotes you can supply.

Why am I reminded of another thread...? Oh, yeah:

Originally Posted by graciegirl

I wonder at the motivation of posters who need to be the expert...

Originally Posted by GoodLife

LOL I don't need to be the expert...

Science is still involved in assessing the role that T-cells play in combating COVID-19, but you go ahead and do your victory dance. Hopefully nothing will change in the coming weeks or months to spoil the glee at the recent downturn in the number of cases. Even more importantly, I hope that the number of deaths has also peaked.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by roscoguy

Why am I reminded of another thread...? Oh, yeah:





Science is still involved in assessing the role that T-cells play in combating COVID-19, but you go ahead and do your victory dance. Hopefully nothing will change in the coming weeks or months to spoil the glee at the recent downturn in the number of cases. Even more importantly, I hope that the number of deaths has also peaked.

When I predicted that Florida's surge of new cases would peak and start falling before end of July I was applying the theory of a Nobel Prize winner. Nobody else was predicting this at the time I did. Doesn't make me an expert, just someone who knows how to follow the science and was willing to go out on a limb when nobody else was. Turns out my prediction was spot on.

As far as T cell coronavirus immunity science goes, nobody on this forum was even talking about it until I started bringing it up. I'd wager that you knew nothing about it till I brought it up. Search for T cell immunity on this forum and you will find a lot of posts by yours truly. T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses has confirmation in 4-5 studies now, done in different parts of the world. Pretty convincing evidence. Doesn't really matter anyway, actual data from virus outbreaks all over the world shows that no matter the mitigation efforts, the virus keeps infecting until it reaches a certain percentage of population, then it goes downward. This fact alone says that there is something stopping the virus from full penetration and infection of all. T cell immunity studies are just another confirmation of why this happens.

Of course I am gleeful that cases are trending downward. You would think everyone would be. If cases go down then so will deaths. Cases peaked on July 18 so we should be close to peak of deaths because of lag time in reporting (3-4 weeks) Current highest death day was July 16 with 152 deaths, but that may get surpassed as new certificates come in.

[GoodLife]

Originally Posted by EdFNJ

My goodness! You win the prize! Pat yourself on the back. Yes, it is getting tiresome. Come back in October and hopefully you'll still be right. Florida is #2 with a bullet. Tough fight for #1 with CA. We keep trying to be on top.

On top of what? Case count? Who cares, it is deaths that matter. Everyone from New Jersey can be proud of having the highest death rate per capita in the world.

And don't worry, there is no way that Florida can knock NJ off that perch, even if our deaths double in the next two months.

Congrats!!

Covid 19 deaths per 100k population



It's like shooting fish in a barrel

Well I follow the science literature and the role of T cells so heard about it already. The problem is that Covid 19 was man made in the labs at Wuhan and engineered to circumvent our natural biological defenses. So I’ll cross my fingers and wait and see.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by GoodLife

I had 2 titles for this thread, decided just to use them both

Oh Happy Day is a great song that was used in a great movie about the world's greatest racing horse winning the triple crown - Secretariat. Big Red still has the fastest times ever recorded for all three races, records still standing after 47 years.

Attachment 85632

Movie clip:

Secretariat - "O Happy Day " - YouTube

Original by Edwin Hawkins Singers:

NEW * Oh Happy Day Edwin Hawkins Singers {Stereo} - YouTube

When I heard this rendition in the movie, I imagined the lead singer as a male. Turns out it is a female lead singer with slightly deep voice. Doesn't matter, it's a great song.

Secretariat has 1000s of descendants which include two Triple Crown winners, Justify in 2015 and American Pharoah in 2018.

Here's one of the latest, a cute little filly named HOPE. She looks a lot like her great great great great Grandpa.

Attachment 85633

So do we have some HOPE in this pandemic? Looks like we do. Brace yourself, there's an "I told you so coming"

Back in the first week of July, when cases were surging here in Florida and panic was being spread, I posted two threads about herd immunity threshold possibly being lower than you might think. Based on work by Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt of Stanford and new research studies showing that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity from the virus, I calculated that new cases in Florida would peak and then start going down before the end of July. I calculated that when Florida reached about 350,000 confirmed positive tests that this would happen. Here are the two threads:

Don't Worry Be Happy Stay Safe

We may reach herd immunity sooner than you think

So, when did Florida's new case rate start to trend downward? July 18

When did Florida reach total of 350,000 confirmed positive tests? July 19

Attachment 85629

Not too shabby don't you think?

Maybe I am just lucky. Or maybe more people should pay attention. I have gotten a lot of pushback on this low herd immunity threshold idea (not my idea, see Levitt's work) I get called a desperate downplayer, deaths will be on my hands, a paid troll, and get wishes that I enjoy my ventilator all because I tend to pop the panic bubble with science.

Michael Levitt and his team at Stanford started analyzing covid 19 data from the start, including China and the cruise ship Diamond Princess. The Diamond Princess was the perfect floating laboratory for a pandemic. Super high density, restaurants, gyms, bars, pools, stores, common areas etc. When epidemiologists tested everyone on the boat, they found that 20% were infected, about half of these were asymptomatic. They were looking at disease vectors, and since only 20% were infected, they concluded that the ships shared HVAC system did not spread the disease through fine aerosols.

Levitt saw something different. In country after country, regardless of mitigation efforts, when cases reached from 15% to 25% of population (adding in untested but assumed asymptomatics) that the disease seemed to burn out. Cases and deaths went up quickly to a peak and then began to fall in what is called a gompertz curve. Levitt saw that this disease was not exponential, did not infect everyone even in non lockdown countries, and seemed to hit a wall. We can see that this "wall" is holding in many places like Sweden, New York, Italy where there has been no spike of new cases. Many places that were not hard hit at first, like Japan, Phillipines, Australia etc are now seeing a surge of new cases,

Several newer studies on T cells are confirming that there is evidence of that wall existing in 50% to 80% of the population. T cells have memory from previous exposure to common cold coronaviruses and can produce antibodies that work against covid 19. T cell memory of SARS, a previous coronavirus, are still valid after 17 years, so this is a long lasting effect. This is also good news for certain types of vaccines.

T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity | Science | AAAS

Some of the pushback I have seen on a low herd immunity thresholds are:

1. I don't want to be part of the herd. You don't need to be, when cases reach certain percentage level they start to fall. You don't have to be part of that percentage

2. I heard about people being re-infected. These were faulty tests, they saw dead virus fragments and registered as positive. The CDC currently states that there are no known re-infection cases.

3. Not everybody tested has antibodies. Again, some faulty tests looking for wrong antibodies or not calibrated correctly. Read this article from NY Times (link goes to Times of India because NYT is under subscription firewall, same exact article)

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/77194515.cms

4. Antibodies don't last. This is true, one study I saw said they were still robust after 3 months but doesn't matter, your T cells are like elephants and never forget, they can produce antibodies at will.

5. What if coronavirus mutates? Thankfully, coronaviruses don't mutate a lot, at least in ways that matter for immunity responses. The flu mutates a lot and new strains develop, which is why we need new vaccines every year. T cell immunity for SARS is still good after 17 years.

So it's good news that cases are trending down now, deaths will probably start dropping in a few weeks because of lag factor. Florida Emergency room visits for CLI (covid like illness) are also trending downward so that's good news as well.

Attachment 85630

Does this means you should let down your guard? Nope, I plan to continue my modified Howard Hughes lifestyle till end of September. The herd immunity threshold is geographic, the threshold appears to have been reached in Florida hotspot counties but The Villages has had low cases and deaths so far, so keep being safe.

The $64,000 question. Is it going to come back? Hard to say at this point. In places where herd immunity threshold has been reached, it will be hard for virus to gain a foothold, not enough available hosts to create a large outbreak. Today we are seeing surges of cases in places like Japan and Phillippines that previously thought they had it beat. Phillippines has had a very strict lockdown for months and is most mask compliant country in the world.

As a twitter pal says "virus is gonna virus" no matter what we do.

Attachment 85631


Thank God or Nature for T cells. Some studies I have read theorize that some of the coronaviruses that cause the common cold were actually pandemics 100s of years ago when we didn't know anything about viruses or vaccines. Our immune systems and T cells adapted and beat them down so that nowadays they are just a nuisance called common colds.

One is my favorite movie’s along with warhorse.

[Topspinmo]

Originally Posted by Bucco

Undertand that last month all hospitals were told to stop sending data to CDC....and send to a private firm hired by the HHS.

So, whatever you read is filtered quite a bit

Or inflated?