[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl

I think that we will have a recession by about June.

[southpawct]

Henney Penny anyone!

[It's Hot There]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I think that we will have a recession by about June.

Opinions are like ___________________. Well everyone knows the saying.

Negative predictors, keep predicting....eventually they will be correct.

Entering 2023, there was an 85% probability of a recession in 23, then the predictors moved it to 2024. Now the consensus is 2026.

I enjoyed back to back 25% returns rather than 4% or 5% sitting in fear.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

from Jurrien Timmer, macro strategist at Fidelity:

from today on Twitter:
https://x.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1867264853913522303

pasted words without charts

My sense is that we are in the 7th inning of a secular bull market which began in 2009. I know many technicians (including my esteemed colleagues) use a later start date (2013), and they may well be right. But I like my method in that it uses multiple approaches that yield the same conclusion.🧵

Per the chart below, I use the deviation from the 150-year trendline as the guide to start the clock. On that basis the current regime began in 2009 (and was confirmed in 2013), and the previous three started in 1982, 1949, and 1920. /2

This approach is further supported by the CAPE model, which also pegs the start in 2009. The CAPE model states that the 10-year trailing P/E ratio (or in the case below the 5-year price/cash ratio) is strongly predictive of the forward 10-year return (CAGR). The CAPE model bottomed in 2009 and peaked in 2019. /3

Finally, if we consider the slope of the market’s ascent off the secular low (top panel below), and add a 2nd derivative in the form of the 10-year CAGR (bottom panel), we see that a 2009 start date lines up nicely with both the 1982-2000 and 1949-1968 super-cycles. The market rockets higher in the first 10 years and then peaks in 2019 on a rate-of-change basis (but not level). From that point on, the market continues to advance, but a slowing rate of change. /4

When and how will this secular bull eventually end? My guess is either a reversal of the Mag 7 (leading to lower valuations), or higher inflation and interest rates (also leading to lower valuations). Valuation is the key to secular regimes. /END

Note: the 3 major valuation calculations are
* Price / Book
* Price / Next years earnings
* Equity Risk Premium : Next 5 years earnings growth' plus cash dividend plus buybacks, less the 10 year Treasury interest rate,

Current price to book is near all time highs
Current Price to Next year's earnings is near all time highs on huge CY25 growth
Equity Risk premium low to negative

So yes, we are nearer the end than to the beginning. .

good luck to us!

I am a lot like today's stock market then."Nearer to the end than to the beginning". Sorry, I could not help myself.

[Boomer]

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note Touches 18-Year High as Inflation Indicators Mount - The Daily Upside

ooops

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Boomer

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by Boomer

I tune in to CNBC once in a while. I am not one to obsess. I have noticed recently though that some of their reporters are starting to get that deer caught in the headlights look.

Boomer

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

[ithos]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

Bloomberg is a much better alternative for market news.
CNBC has too much nepotism for me, and Kernan has to go!
He just talks his opinions over everyone else, including guests.
Bloomberg asks questions and lets the guest give their opinions,
plus each has to have a CFA to be on the show

I couldn't disagree more. Even though it is a business program, it is a NBC channel which means it has reporters, guests and anchors who tend to put a political spin in their commentary and reporting whenever they can. It is refreshing to have a voice on the show that counters it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVvSyKHmm7c

My biggest complaint about him and everyone else on CNBC is their infatuation and shameless promotion of BTC with no mention of the blatant manipulation facilitated by the exploitation of the so called fraudulent stablecoin Tether. Yes many made fortunes but also many of the beguiled were devastated.

This of course was before DJT decided to spend my taxes on the sham.

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

Kernen is one of the few reasons to watch it. I turn it off when Sorkin is on without a counterbalance.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.

You are right. He needs to go. Joe Kernen not only talks too much, he is especially into talking over top of women. He was so incredibly rude to a woman who was a guest one day recently that I composed a complaint to CNBC -- but like a lot of those things I compose in my head, it remains there. He interrupted her constantly and just kept on blathering his opinions. He is old enough to remember that 70s term "Male Chauvinist Pig" and whether he realizes it or not, he comes across as a perfect example of one when he is sharing the screen with a smart woman. Maybe that's his schtick. I am sure it flies just fine with like-minded dinosaurs in the viewing audience.

Joe Kernen is the reason I turn CNBC OFF when he is on. . .

Anyway, thanks for the Bloomberg suggestion. I will see if I can find it.

Boomer

Originally Posted by Caymus

Kernen is one of the few reasons to watch it. I turn it off when Sorkin is on without a counterbalance.

Caymus, your response does not surprise me, but c'mon, he should not be talking over top of people. He can be particularly obnoxious about doing that to women. You might find it ironic to know that the only one I have seen to be equally obnoxious and as enthralled with the sound of his own voice is Scarborough. I do not tune in to too much tv alleged news, so I am sure I could find more of that type. I don't think those two huge egos know how to read a room. Delivery of an opinion matters and can lend credibility. But they do not seem to get that. Oh well, their boorish style obviously works for enough of the people enough of the time.

It looks like Kernen is no slouch when it comes to raw brain power. He started as a scientist. His undergrad is in Molecular, Cellular, and Developmental Biology and he holds a master's degree from MIT and was involved in cancer research. I can respect that ability, but what I have no respect for is his lack of just plain manners, and from what I have seen, his condescending, disrespectful attitude toward some women. The guy comes off like a big blowhard. Not sure how he made the leap from serious science into what he is doing now, but I guess it pays a helluva lot more and he can do the math.

Anyway, I seem to have too much time on my hands today and here I find myself typing away about how obnoxious I find Kernen to be. I just flip it on in the morning to hear a little business news not to see his big head -- and mouth. But all I have to do is turn him off.

Boomer

[ithos]

Originally Posted by Boomer

Thanks. I had never bothered to know the name of that arrogant windbag who is on in the morning on CNBC. When I read your post, I looked him up. Yep. It's Joe Kernen.....
Boomer

My biggest issue was his non stop shilling for Bitcoin. Yes it has taken off after Trump committed to spending taxpay money for some "Strategic Reserve" but many who took his advice were wiped out when it went from 64k to 14k. And he ignored that fact that 90% of transactions are in Tether, a fraudulent stablecoin that has never been audited and also that the only real use case for BTC was for facilitating illicit activity.

There really shouldn't be any editorializing on a business program unless both sides are presented. But there is (or used to be) and he does help balance it out. I like his cynical sense of humor but must admit he lacks the eloquence of the other hosts on CNBC.

[Boomer]

Originally Posted by ithos

My biggest issue was his non stop shilling for Bitcoin. Yes it has taken off after Trump committed to spending taxpay money for some "Strategic Reserve" but many who took his advice were wiped out when it went from 64k to 14k. And he ignored that fact that 90% of transactions are in Tether, a fraudulent stablecoin that has never been audited and also that the only real use case for BTC was for facilitating illicit activity.

There really shouldn't be any editorializing on a business program unless both sides are presented. But there is (or used to be) and he does help balance it out. I like his cynical sense of humor but must admit he lacks the eloquence of the other hosts on CNBC.

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Shilling for Bitcoin is pathetic. Actually, Bitcoin gives me the creeps, always has — and getting even creepier by the day.

Now that I have looked up Kernen’s pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don't think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer

[ithos]

Originally Posted by Boomer

I'm baaaaack. Yes, I know what you mean. Now that I have looked up his pedigree, I have to think he has fallen into what is basically schtick. He knows where his appeal lies and has chosen to join the circus.

I don't like Cramer either. He affects me like fingernails on a blackboard. He’s another loudmouth ego boy, so I don't hang around when he comes on. I just don't like clowns in general. Maybe I have coulrophobia, but I don' think it's that. I just know one when I see one.

Conseulo Mack on PBS WealthTrack is more my style. She interviews some big deal people from the world of finance each week and lets them talk and then ends the show with a question asking for a word of advice for now. Her shows can be found at wealthtrack.com, most recent title was "Fears of a Great Investor" with some guy from T. Rowe Price. Before that were two parts with Jason Zweig. She has Christine Benz on from time to time. In the half hour show, you can pick up information without the clown effect.

Boomer

On Cramer I couldn't agree more. I don't know why CNBC keeps him around. Apparently he alot of neophytes find his schtick appealing. But back in 1999 I liked him and was a subscriber to TheStreet.com. He wasn't as obnoxious and rambling as he is today. I also have some fond memories when I made 6k in a day by flipping the IPO shares allotted to me in their lottery.

Conseulo Mack was very professional and pleasant to listen to. My favorites on CNBC now are The Judge(Scott Wapner) and Josh Brown.

[Boomer]

Uh, oh, I just turned on CNBC. Looks like we are having a Blood, Bath, and Beyond Day.

Boomer