[LeRoySmith]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

Buy put options.

What is your decision making rationale whether to sell or exercise puts? I think last time there was a fair sized correction I choose incorrectly.

[RoadToad]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

not in an IRA. .

but you mean capital gains as a tax on success? I will gladly make millions and pay the appropriate capital gains versus losing money and waiting to return to a gain or taking a loss

Absolutely ... my happiest year was when we paid the most taxes.

[RoboVil]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

The Shiller CAPE has hit 38.18, more than double its mean (17.17) and median (16). That seems like a very scary high to me so I have for the most part moved to defensive holdings and the largest proportion of cash I have ever maintained

Shiller PE Ratio - Multpl

Timing the market is always risky. The Forward PE of the S&P 500 is actually less now than at the start of the year. I invest primarily in tech. That is where innovation and growth occurs. Even if you invested at the peak of the dot com bust in the Nasdaq 100, you would have a small fortune today. I am up 30% Y-T-D. The Forward PE of NVDA is lower than before the AI market took off. SMCI has a Forward PE of 9 due to its compliance problems, but its business seems to be fine if you want something with a low PE but has some risky compliance issues.

[TomPerry]

The road to Hell is paved with Good Intentions, the road to Financial Ruin is paved with Discount Brokerage Trade Tickets!

[Normal]

Just when will the sell off take place. Stocks have skyrocketed to the moon over the past year and a half. What year are we supposed to sell at?

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by LeRoySmith

What is your decision making rationale whether to sell or exercise puts? I think last time there was a fair sized correction I choose incorrectly.

Are you buying equity options or cash settled index options?

Usually to avoid capital gains on the long term equity position, one sells the puts for short term cap gains, and continues to hold the equity position. .

Most professionals sell calls as the hedge, and they expire worthless, and you aren't forced to decide, assuming your timing is correct. Then you can roll them down as the market goes down. .

you want to be greedy? Sell Call options and buy put options, for a near zero debit/credit, and sell them when you decide the gain is sufficient. . . one can easily get a high percent return on that trade, and not touch the equity position.

however, right now I would look at end of year options for a hedge, and I would sell calls, strike 5%/10% out of the money, or higher strike, and then sit and collect premium through theta decay.

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by LeRoySmith

I hope it's done going low.... I went all in on April 7th. 300 in voog and 100 on Tesla.

Now I hope it all comes back before I die.

Reading through all or some of this seems, projection perhaps, we are nervous. I gossip back and forth with a friend. HOPE IT DOES. I suggested he and his wife dance. Did they do something wrong? IT IS RAINING. HUH? The S&P. Long term I call it ten years. Money is no longer REAL gold and silver. It is just numbers. In ten years average numbers-the S&P are roughly triple. HUH? We talk about INFLATION. What matters is the exchange rate between your numbers and STUFF. Stuff you need and stuff you want-they are not the same.

I also ask are we investing or gambling. Similar to above view. We know we are investing not gambling because what we read is not called the racing forum-it is the investing forum. To do?
All need to find their own answers.

Old expressions. Money doesn't buy happiness. Baloney-it does make misery A LOT MORE FUN. How much do your need? A bit more than I have. We read Musk was a trillionaire. Am I the only one to think and we complain about TAXES?

[rsmurano]

I like these naysayers predicting market collapses, never stating a specific date, so in reality, if 1 occurs 10 years from now, they can say they were right.

If people are nervous about the market, you can get over 4% in money market funds, which is probably what most people make anyway when they hire an advisor and it will cost you less in taxes

[Caymus]

Originally Posted by DAVES

Reading through all or some of this seems, projection perhaps, we are nervous. I gossip back and forth with a friend. HOPE IT DOES. I suggested he and his wife dance. Did they do something wrong? IT IS RAINING. HUH? The S&P. Long term I call it ten years. Money is no longer REAL gold and silver. It is just numbers. In ten years average numbers-the S&P are roughly triple. HUH? We talk about INFLATION. What matters is the exchange rate between your numbers and STUFF. Stuff you need and stuff you want-they are not the same.

I also ask are we investing or gambling. Similar to above view. We know we are investing not gambling because what we read is not called the racing forum-it is the investing forum. To do?
All need to find their own answers.

Old expressions. Money doesn't buy happiness. Baloney-it does make misery A LOT MORE FUN. How much do your need? A bit more than I have. We read Musk was a trillionaire. Am I the only one to think and we complain about TAXES?

Day to day it can be gambling. Over a 40-year period it is investing.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Normal

Just when will the sell off take place.

Tomorrow.

[DrMack]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

Tomorrow.

Actually maybe 2 years from now, November of 2028.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by DrMack

Actually maybe 2 years from now, November of 2028.

Hopefully in October 2028, I'll still be saying, Tomorrow.

[MorTech]

Global bond selloff underway...Stocks tend to follow. Yen carry trade ending.
It will be different this time

Top 10 SP500 companies generate 35% of the index.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by MorTech

Global bond selloff underway...Stocks tend to follow. Yen carry trade ending.
It will be different this time

Top 10 SP500 companies generate 35% of the index.

The good things is the S&P 500 rally has broadened significantly and not just the top sexy 10.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

The good things is the S&P 500 rally has broadened significantly and not just the top sexy 10.

They lousy 493 earnings growth is just starting to catch up, after a long, long period of underperforming, and so far the oil shock has not seriously damaged the economy. However, much of the current earnings growth is coming from commodities, such as oil and transportation, which suggests real inflation adjusted growth in the 493 might not get very high . .