[Aces4]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

The stock market will last as long as America as we know it will last. Only a nuclear holocaust could stop the sock markets of the world.

Too bad one doesn't have another 40 years to witness the collapse. A nuclear holocaust isn't necessary, unfortunately, it will implode from the inside from the unmanageable debt and other countries having their country money/script being the worldwide financial base. But just keep coasting...

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Right now ONLY 30% of economic experts think that we will have a recession. Not getting a recession will be very impressive for the Fed because it is difficult for them to "tiptoe" the line that they must walk to keep the US out of recession. The FED is to be applauded.

I say, don't waste the applause. The can has been kicked down the road.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

Seniors will NOT be hurt by the Fed. bring down the interest rate. Yes seniors with interest paying investments will get less gain (less money) but that money will NOW go further because things that they want to buy are going DOWN in price.......such as gas prices, food, clothing and etc. NOTE: those prices will NOT go down INSTANTLY, it will take a few months. Prices tend to LAG interest changes.

What price reduction? Are the employees who received much larger salaries to keep up with inflation going to give back their raises? Are insurance rates going drop from the huge increases? Are property taxes going to retract and schools decline money because inflation is now gone.

Suggestion: one shouldn't hold one's breath.

[Aces4]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

It is actually pretty simple. The FED RAISED rates to combat INFLATION. They now feel that inflation is under CONTROL, so they can reduce rates.

Inflation is not under control, why aren't they monitoring the price of food, clothing and other basics that are excluded.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by Aces4

Inflation is not under control, why aren't they monitoring the price of food, clothing and other basics that are excluded.

Inflation is not running at 9% any longer and appears to be decreasing below 3%. What is *your* definition of "under control?"

As far as food, clothing, and other basics go, simply find the CPI number that includes those.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by mtlee024

No way current inflation is 2.5%, inflation is an accunulative thing. Something in 2020 that cost $10 at 9.1 infkation cost $10.91. If as you sugget inflation is just 2.5% then that item now cost $11.81. Seems to me my $10 iinflation is 10.81%. We can do anything we want with numbers and statistics. So don';t listen to that 2.5% inflation BS.

You lost me $11.81 and 10.81%. Where did those numbers come from.

Inflation is measured from one year to the next (or sometimes from one month to the next). Yes it is cumulative, but the numbers that are used and compared are those for year-over-year.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by CybrSage

One point to think bout is that too low of an unemployment rate is also bad. A 3 - 5% unemployment is what is sought.

You have a 3 % rate from people just changing jobs like looking for better jobs.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Federspiel

When did the Feds quit including energy and groceries in the inflation percentage?

Actually, a long time ago because they were so volatile.

[Normal]

It has to be a part of the adjustment upward of unemployment numbers at the beginning of the month and the increase mid month. I’m sure also that there are the global inflation numbers abating and the screeching halt of sales in the housing market.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

Inflation is not running at 9% any longer and appears to be decreasing below 3%. What is *your* definition of "under control?"

As far as food, clothing, and other basics go, simply find the CPI number that includes those.

Based on what we normally buy in terms of food, I believe inflation in this area is well above what the cpi has been telling us.

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Based on what we normally buy in terms of food, I believe inflation in this area is well above what the cpi has been telling us.

BLS statistics say 2.1% in August.

- That is across the country and may vary in a particular area

- That is an average and may vary depending on what you normally buy

My cumulative food expenditures this year, including dining out, are very close to what they were last year. The difference appears to be under 2%.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Based on what we normally buy in terms of food, I believe inflation in this area is well above what the cpi has been telling us.

The CPI does not represent what the typical consumer experiences. Inflation has far exceeded the CPI's rate. My grocery, gasoline, utility bills and other items tell me this. Grocery prices literally soared over the past 3-4 years and are still going up but at a lower rate. True current inflation substantially exceeds the official 2.1%

USPS in July hiked the price of a first-class mail stamp to 73 cents from 68 cents and raised overall mailing services product prices by 7.8%. Stamp prices are up 36% since early 2019 when they were 50 cents.

Gasoline prices:

2016 $2.14
2017 $2.41
2018 $2.74
2019 $2.64
2020 $2.17
2021 $3.05
2022 $3.29
(Source: Gas Price History: List of Prices by Year)

[Bill14564]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

The CPI does not represent what the typical consumer experiences. Inflation has far exceeded the CPI's rate. My grocery, gasoline, utility bills and other items tell me this. Grocery prices literally soared over the past 3-4 years and are still going up but at a lower rate. True current inflation substantially exceeds the official 2.1%

Do you have any proof the BLS is providing false data? My personal data, actual accounting, are in line with the 2.1%.

[MorTech]

With the inflation target at 2% they are telling you that they are going to steal half your stuff very 35 years.

It is like being married to the State.

Selling your labor for fiat USD is really a fools errand (as the young are starting to figure out). When Bernanke announced the new 2% inflation target is when I started to get into Bitcoin.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

The CPI does not represent what the typical consumer experiences. Inflation has far exceeded the CPI's rate. My grocery, gasoline, utility bills and other items tell me this. Grocery prices literally soared over the past 3-4 years and are still going up but at a lower rate. True current inflation substantially exceeds the official 2.1%

math crime alert!
you are mixing and matching time periods. .
you are also mixing and matching local versus national rates
you can't compare the past 3-4 years with the current rate of inflation. .
you can't compare here versus nationally

There are several measures of inflation, each measuring different viewpoints.

The big ones are for latest Q3 year over year change:
CPI = 2.59%
Core CPI = 3.27%
Core CPI less shelter costs = -3.8%
shelter costs (owners rent equivalent)
PCE = july 5.3%
Core PCE = July 2.62%


The Fed uses core PCE calculation for their policy
pick your poison!

note that the owners equivalent rent or shelter costs is a cluster fuss of a calculation,
and that insurance costs are even a bigger cluster in data estimation. .