[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Ski Bum

Core GDP is +3%, look it up. Gross domestic investment is up 22%. Exports are up 1.8%. Parroting what's in the headlines is not financial talk. There are zero events in history where we have had a recession with rising core GDP.

1st qtr GDP is DOWN .3%. Consumer spending slowed. The SURGE in imports was to get into the US before tariffs. Government expenditures declined.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by rsmurano

In the 48 months that somebody was referring too, it was all fake. Every month for the last year they had to correct their o er reaching jobs stats because they wanted to make things look better for November. Also, most job creation was in government which is wasted jobs not productive jobs. Remember the 80k irs workers that the government was hiring? I would make them all ice agents or fire them.

As for wage growth, it was all due to the foolishness of raising the minimum wage to $20 hr, so now your McDonald’s happy meal is $20 in California instead of the old $5. Everybody had to raise their cost of living and the cost of goods because of this so the $20 hr employee is still making poverty wages. Everything went up to coincide with the salary increases. The only people that suffered are the old folks on social security/fixed income. If I was still working making hundreds of thousands $$$, I would ask for an equivalent wage increase too, cost of goods was going up for me too. It’s a never ending spiral that people don’t understand. People that demand high minimum wages will pay more for all the goods so the financial situation will not change. They need to get a better job!

The more IRS agents the better - less fraud and abuse.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Boilerman

The Govt always revises the economic stats when new data is incorporated.
Job creation was NOT due to Govt hiring.
Additional IRS auditors bring in more Govt revenue than they cost.
Wage growth is NOT just because of a $20 minimum wage. In Florida the minimum wage is $14 and it’s less in most states. Less than 2% of American workers make minimum wage.

I tend to agree.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Boilerman

And here’s a study that shows otherwise:

The paper, “A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distributed,” published in June, is based on an analysis of about 710,000 in-person audits of individuals from 2010 to 2014. The researchers found that an additional $1 spent on audits of top earners (taxpayers above the 90th income percentile) brings in over $12 in revenue.

In addition, there is increased revenue that comes indirectly, as higher income taxpayers are less aggressive with their tax returns when they know they’ll likely be audited. This is harder to measure.

I tend to agree.

[jimjamuser]

Originally Posted by Boilerman

Sure! From a Harvard study in 2023:

It turns out auditing is one government investment that pays off. A new working paper, co-authored by Hendren and published last month by the National Bureau of Economic Research, shows that audits, particularly of higher-income taxpayers, raise significantly more money than they cost.

Specifically, the paper concludes that audits cost more than previously estimated, owing to everything from training to computers and the office space needed for in-person meetings. But the revenue raised more than makes up for these expenses, mostly because audits act as a powerful deterrent to tax evasion for years to come.

I tend to agree. It is only logical that MORE IRS agents are better for the country. They are economic heroes. They act like referees in a basketball game. Some people will not like a particular call, but without referees you have a lower class game, a mere pick-up game.

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy

This release does not include the effects of actual tariffs, but more reflects the chaos and confusion /uncertainty around the size, purpose and impact of impending tariffs.

Inflation deflator higher than expected, so next step is recession, barring no changes in policies. Most trade policies take quarters to come to an executable agreement.

So backward accounting looks are a deteriorating economy, and the Fed will not try to save the economy right away, and treasury bonds may become more risky to hold, so interest rates may rise more than expected.

Holding Treasuries, the question for why the bonds will move:
1 - inflation higher? = bonds down/rates up
2 - recession? = bonds up/rates down
3 - US Dollar down? = bonds down / rates up

good luck to us!

MY OPINION. What WAS is no longer. NEWS with BIAS controls, people like Walter Cronkite are long gone. The dollar, our dollar is no longer backed by gold. Nixon too us off the gold backed dollar. At that time it was $40 an oz. today it is 2600 an oz.
My point our dollar is now just printed paper. Actually, I've read only 20% exists in any form. The rest is notes on computers. BIT COIN. Endless OPINIONS. What is bitcoin?
OPINION-first of all crypto currency there are roughly 20 of them, What is crypto currency? Money PULLED OUT OF THIN AIR AND QUOTED IN DOLLARS ALREADY DICUSSED THE DOLLAR IS BACKED BY NOTHING.

Why are we uncomfortable? Truly simple reply. WHAT IS HAPENING IS NOT REALITY-least not my understanding of REALITY

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by jimjamuser

I tend to agree. It is only logical that MORE IRS agents are better for the country. They are economic heroes. They act like referees in a basketball game. Some people will not like a particular call, but without referees you have a lower class game, a mere pick-up game.

No shortage of OPINIONS. Our tax code is 180,000 pages. No shortage of rules due to special interests. Translation bribes to the right people. There is actually a section that makes starbucks a manufacturer. It is a coffee house. What do they manufacture-they roast coffee.

Herman Cain proposed a flat tax. He actually stole the idea from Steve Forbes. The SCREAM was 9-9-9. People objected to a flat tax so Cain added back the mortgage deduction. Steve Forbes said the number would be 12-12-12.

The IRS. I was told it is normal CURRENT PRACTICE. as many of we Villagers, I pay my taxes quarterly. Penaties for late pay? I paid too much. Money market was paying 5% my over pay would have cost me over 100 in money market interest. REMINDER 1/4LY is every 3 months. REMINDER late fees if you pay late. NORMAL according to an accountant I know. IRS TOOK 2.5 MONTHS TO REPAY THE MONEY I SENT THEM.

A simlified flat tax. It will not happen. WHY? We would need to fire the million or so people we taxpayers are forced to PAY. Accountants, what would they do?
All that paper-imagine all the trees we would save.

[DAVES]

Originally Posted by Bill14564

Where did you read that inflation is worse than ever? The last report I saw said it was a little below expectations at 2.4%. Sure, 2.0% would be nice and it might go up in the next report but by no means is 2.4% "worse than ever."

The problem ACCORDING TO ME, is BIAS. It is everywhere and impossible to escape. Complex issues that require books perhaps several books to discuss. People POST a line or two.
MY VIEW, I live in REALITY. Many think SHOULD BE. In plainspeak SHOULD BE IS NOT.
Perfect, perfect also does not and never will exist.

Aside, there have been several only good news, news stations and they always fail. REALITY according to ME. Is the glass half full or half empty was the old question. Today for some the glass is full of lye